G20 leaders meet Monday in Rio de Janeiro for a summit under high pressure, between the need for a compromise on the climate and glaring divergences on Ukraine and the Middle East, before the return of Donald Trump.
The heads of state and government of the largest advanced and emerging economies, including the presidents of the two superpowers, the American Joe Biden, in the twilight of his term, and the Chinese Xi Jinping, must try to move forward on the issue of climate finance.
The UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, called on the G20 leaders on Sunday to assume their “leadership” and to make “compromises” to allow “a positive outcome at COP29”, the climate conference in Baku where negotiations on the subject have been stalled for a week.
The members of the G20 (19 countries, as well as the European Union and the African Union) represent 85% of global GDP and 80% of greenhouse gas emissions.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and The Israeli offensive in Gaza and Lebanon also continues to fracture the international community.
“The discussions on Ukraine and the Middle East (…) are the most difficult. We will see how far we can go in the communiqué, it will be a challenge,” a German government source acknowledged before the G20.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva welcomes European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on November 17, 2024 in Rio © AFP – Mauro PIMENTEL
On Ukraine, which has just suffered one of the most significant Russian attacks in recent months, “we will firmly oppose any degradation of language,” the French presidency warned.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had already missed the last summits, will be the big absentee in Rio.
However, the timing is strategic: Washington has just authorized Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles supplied by the United States.
– Uncertainty Milei –
Will the G20 therefore succeed in agreeing on a joint communiqué by the end of its summit on Tuesday?
Argentine President Javier Milei arrives in Rio de Janeiro for the G20 summit, November 17, 2024 © G20 Brazil Press Office – Handout
In recent days, the divergences over the major ongoing conflicts have been compounded by uncertainty over the attitude that Argentine President Javier Milei, an ultraliberal and climatosceptic.
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Buenos Aires has raised some objections and will not “necessarily” sign the text, the head of the Argentine delegation, Federico Pinedo, told AFP, without going into details.
Brazilian left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the summit host, hopes to score points on social issues, as he presents himself as the champion of the “Global South” and the most disadvantaged.
The former worker also warned Sunday evening, in an interview on the Brazilian channel GloboNews: he wants to leave conflicts aside, “because otherwise, we will not discuss other things that are important” for “the poor, the invisible people of the world”.
Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives at Galeao Air Base in Rio de Janeiro for the G20 summit, Nov. 17, 2024 © G20 Brazil Press Office – Handout
Lula plans to make a big splash with the launch of a Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty on Monday morning.
It will bring together countries from around the world and international institutions to free up financial resources and replicate initiatives that work locally.
Lula is also pushing for a tax on the richest. The G20 finance ministers had committed to “cooperating” on the subject in Rio in July and in Washington in October.
– Fragmentation –
The shadow of Donald Trump, who returns to the White House in January, will hang over the Rio meeting – and not only because Javier Milei visited him in Florida a few days ago.
US President Joe Biden arrives in Rio de Janeiro for the G20 summit on November 17, 2024 © AFP – SAUL LOEB
Outgoing US President Joe Biden sent his successor a message in favor of environmental protection on Sunday during a stop in the Brazilian Amazon.
From the heart of the rainforest in Manaus, he defended his record on combating global warming, which he called an “existential threat” to humanity.
The return to power of the Republican, a supporter of fossil fuels and a slayer of multilateralism, is fueling fears of a weakening of global ambitions to combat global warming and of even greater international fragmentation.
“We are undoubtedly entering a much more unpredictable global scenario, but also with much more space for the countries of the South, for China, etc., to articulate their own visions, because the old order is about to collapse,” said Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) in Sao Paulo.
Xi Jinping, who arrived in Rio on Sunday from Lima, where he participated in an Asia-Pacific summit like Joe Biden, is also expected to hold a number of bilateral meetings.
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