A less secondary debate between running mates than usual

Photo: The Canadian Press and Associated Press Even though they were thrust into the spotlight this summer, J.D. Vance and Tim Walz remain political figures who are much better known in their home states than nationally.

Fabien Deglise

Published at 0:00 Analysis

• United States

Often relegated to the background of the election campaign, the televised debate between the two vice-presidential candidates — J.D. Vance for the Republicans, Tim Walz for the Democrats — could be an exception this year. How ? By attracting more attention than usual, five weeks before the election, due to a race for the White House that is always very tight.

On Tuesday evening, from the CBS studios in New York, the two men will find themselves under pressure, during this first and only face-off between the running mates, to convince the undecided and try to move the voting intention indicators in their respective camps' favor. A delicate exercise for both of them…

An asymmetrical popularity

Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, Donald Trump’s notable choice as a running mate last July, arrives in New York with a bit of a climb to make. Since he entered the race, a negative sentiment seems to be developing among voters who are following his campaign. A recent AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll of 1,700 voters between September 12 and 16 indicated that more than half of them had an unfavorable opinion of the Republican, about 10 points more than two months earlier.

By contrast, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is viewed negatively by just three in 10 voters. He is also more popular among Democrats—70 percent view him favorably—than Vance is among his own ranks; the latter commands a favorable opinion among 60 percent of Republicans.

“Tim Walz may come into this debate with an advantage over Vance,” Christopher Lawrence, a political science professor at Middle Georgia State University, told reporters in Macon. “Democrats seem to have been more effective at painting Vance as a ‘weird’ candidate and pointing out his inconsistencies. Republicans’ attacks on Walz [including exaggerations about his military record and his involvement in China] have resonated less with the general public.” »

The Trumpist running mate must also deal with an image of opportunism fueled in part by his spectacular about-face in the face of Donald Trump, whom he considered a threat to the country in 2016, before making him a hero and savior in 2020 and 2024.

“He's a liar, a hypocrite, a fraud,” summarized Connie Griffis a few weeks ago, a Democratic activist met in the village of Middletown, Ohio, cradle of the narrative of the deep America Hillbilly Elegy, through which J.D. Vance has built his reputation in recent years. “He was against Donald Trump until he saw with him the possibility of becoming a senator”… and now vice president.

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Slippery Slopes

Telegenic and with a polished style, J.D. Vance is preparing to present a contrasting image with that of Tim Walz, who likes to cultivate and expose his “normality” and his “ordinary” experience as an amateur sports coach and geography teacher in a public school in Mankato, Minnesota.

The Republican also risks being caught up on the terrain of ideas, particularly with the issue of abortion, on which the Democratic camp has decided to bet heavily in the current campaign, in the name of “freedom” and “respect for the rights” of women.

The subject puts the Republicans in a difficult position, they who boast of having put an end to the shutdown Roe v. Wade, which had protected access to this medical procedure since 1973, but without providing a coherent message to the 67% of Americans who believe that abortion should not be illegal.

In August, J.D. Vance had indicated that Donald Trump would veto a possible decision by Congress to ban abortion nationwide. During his televised debate with Kamala Harris, however, the former president did not confirm this, saying instead that he had not discussed it with his running mate. The latest Siena College poll conducted for the New York Times found that when it comes to abortion, 54 percent of voters have more confidence in Vice President Kamala Harris, compared to 39 percent for Donald Trump.

J.D. Vance also alienated some female voters a few weeks ago after a 2021 comment to media firebrand Tucker Carlson about “childless cat ladies” — people the vice presidential candidate called unfit to make decisions that shape the destiny of American families — resurfaced.

The Republican, however, is likely to attack his opponent on the issue of immigration, a terrain on which the American radical right dominates, including by exploiting imaginary narratives and multiplying racist statements. It was J.D. Vance who injected into the public space the unfounded rumor that immigrants in a small town in Ohio eat their neighbors' pets. The insidious statement was echoed by Donald Trump during the September 10 presidential debate.

In the following days, on CNN, Vance admitted to lying, but added that if he had to “make up stories to get the American media to actually pay attention to the suffering of the people,” he would continue to do so.

Coming out of the shadows a little more

Despite being thrust into the spotlight this summer, Vance and Walz remain much better known political figures in their home states than they are nationally. And on Tuesday night, while trying to advance their side’s policy agendas, both men will also have to demonstrate that, despite their role as second-in-commands, they are also qualified to replace the president in an emergency, as the nation’s Constitution requires.

“That’s the toughest task for Vance, who doesn’t have the same political experience that Walz has to make the case that he’s ready to take over the presidency,” Lawrence said. An argument that is nevertheless necessary because of the age of Donald Trump, the oldest of the candidates in the race, and his “visible decline,” he adds.

The stakes are high for both politicians, even if, in the end, it remains unlikely that this debate between the vice-presidential candidates will change “fundamentally the trajectory of the race,” estimates Tim Lynch, professor of political science at the University of St. Thomas, in Minnesota.

“However, with the gaps still very narrow between the presidential candidates in several key states that will decide the outcome of the November election, neither side can afford to ignore any opportunity to convince voters,” he adds.

That's what Tuesday night's debate will partly allow them to do.