Photo: Sean Kilpatrick The Canadian Press Justin Trudeau's Liberals have won the three elections held in the riding of LaSalle — Émard — Verdun since its creation.
Posted at 7:28 a.m.
Justin Trudeau is far from out of the woods at the dawn of the call of a crucial by-election for his leadership. A recent poll of voters in the Montreal riding of LaSalle — Émard — Verdun indicates that a three-way race is looming and that the Liberals have fallen compared to the last election.
According to the poll conducted by the firm Mainstreet Research two weeks ago, the Liberal Party of Canada is credited with 26.2% of voting intentions, the Bloc Québécois with 23.7%, the New Democratic Party with 23.3% and the Conservative Party of Canada with 11.9%. Nearly 8.7% of respondents say they are undecided.
“This is a 15-point drop since the last election. This is very significant. And I think that’s just the general trend right now (as) the Liberals are struggling in the polls across the country,” said pollster Quito Maggi, president of the polling firm, in an interview with The Canadian Press.
The fall is spectacular because the Liberals are starting from a high point. The riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun can be considered one of their strongholds. They have won all three elections held there since its creation.
In the last election, former Justice Minister David Lametti was re-elected with 42.9% of the vote, finishing far ahead of his opponents. The Bloc candidate received 22.1% of the vote, the NDP candidate came third (19.4%) and the Conservative obtained 7.5%. The People's Party candidate received 3.4% and the Green Party candidate received 3.0%.
Mr. Maggi noted that in the riding “on one side it's a fight between the Liberals and the Bloc, and on the other it's a fight between the Liberals and the NDP.”
He said he believed that a dynamic where there is “the liberal vote and the non-liberal vote” could form around the NDP or the Bloc, much like in Toronto–St. Paul’s where the Liberals suffered a painful defeat last month at the hands of the Conservatives in what was also considered one of their strongholds.
Mr. Maggi, like several other analysts consulted, considers that the conservatives have “no chance” in this race.
The poll was carried out using robocalls to landlines and cell phones on July 8 and 9 with 329 respondents. The margin of error is 5.4%, 19 times out of 20.
With such a survey, “the entire dashboard is lit up in red,” illustrates Jeremy Ghio, a former Liberal strategist in Ottawa and director of TACT Conseil in Montreal .
According to him, Mr. Trudeau's adversaries can now believe that “anything is possible, even take bastions and strongholds from him.” At the moment, “there is nothing safe for the Liberals, no more counties,” he notes.
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000Although Mr. Ghio says he expects the Liberals to win “if the logical order of things is respected,” a defeat in this riding which is “in the top 30 seats” in the country would be “very bad omen” for the next election, so that “anyone in the caucus will start to panic” since it would herald “disaster, a sinking ship”.
The last time the Liberals lost the two old ridings, parts of which formed during a redistribution LaSalle — Émard — Verdun (i.e. LaSalle — Émard and Jeanne-Le Ber), it was in 2011, i.e. when the Liberal Party of Canada experienced its worst result in its history under Michael Ignatieff, during the Orange Wave propelled by NDP leader Jack Layton.
The former strategist judges that the NDP achieved “a home run” by proposing the candidacy of former municipal councilor Craig Sauvé and that he is capable “single-handedly” of pulling his party to the top. He warns that if the Liberals do not pull out all the stops, the scenario of a New Democratic victory cannot be ruled out.
This is because, he believes – il, disappointed Liberal voters in this sector of Montreal known for being “more progressive, but federalist” have two options: “stay at home” or give their support to this “well-known figure”.
The choice of municipal councilor Laura Palestini as liberal candidate to succeed former Minister of Justice David Lametti is also of concern.
“We would have expected the party in power to present a star. It could have been an economic bigwig, but we went for a local councillor,” he said. “For me, it also perhaps indicates problems with recruitment and the attractiveness of the party.” »
Professor of political science at the University of Montreal Catherine Ouellet explained that by-elections often represent “a strong trend in public opinion or an indicator.”
The Mainstreet poll is therefore “the concretization” of “fatigue” with the Liberal Party which has been observed in the polls for months and must “necessarily worry” the Liberal troops.
According to her, it is “very, very, very unlikely” at this point that the Liberals will achieve a significant victory. And she predicts that even if they win “by the skin of the buttocks”, the pressure is likely to increase for Mr. Trudeau to give up his place.
Une riding like LaSalle — Émard — Verdun, with its high proportion of immigrants and anglophones or allophones, is normally “almost acquired” by the Liberals, she said.
Thus, “even a slim victory is not really a victory” and “must be interpreted as a signal that there is a wind of change that is necessary which often obviously comes through the main figure who embodies the party, in this this case Justin Trudeau.”
His colleague Éric Montigny of Laval University judges for his part that a narrow victory would have the effect of a “coup warning”, while several MPs from the island of Montreal will no longer be able to have “peace of mind”, and a defeat would send the message that there is “danger at home”.
Professor Montigny also points out that the Liberals could have other types of obstacles by having chosen not to hold a nomination meeting in the riding and instead appoint “a Friday after- noon at the end of the day” an active candidate at the municipal level while there were other contenders who were thus excluded.
“That, perhaps on the organizational level, it can leave traces on the mobilization of activists, on the very organization of the campaign dynamic on the ground,” he declared.
The election in LaSalle — Émard — Verdun must be called no later than next Tuesday. Voting will be held no later than Monday, September 16. The conservatives chose entrepreneur Louis Ialenti to carry their colors. And the Bloc has not yet revealed its choice.
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