A Truce in the War Between Israel and Lebanon ? What's in the Ceasefire Agreement

After more than a year war, including two months of escalation, between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah, a ceasefire agreement has éwas proposed to the belligerents. The Israeli security cabinet is to give its opinion on the terms of the truce this Tuesday, November 26.

Will the time soon come for a truce between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah ? A ceasefire agreement has in any case been submitted to the two belligerents and the Israeli security cabinet must decide on the truce plan this Tuesday, November 26. France and the United States, which took part in the negotiations, are confident about the response of the Hebrew State concerning the ceasefire. “We believe we have reached the point where we are close” to an agreement, declared John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, although he recalled that nothing was yet a done deal. The tone is more urgent on the European Union side. The vice-president of the European Commission, Josep Borrell, estimated yesterday on the sidelines of the G7 in Rome that Israel has “no more excuses” to refuse a ceasefire.

But there are reasons to be skeptical about the Hebrew state's response to the ceasefire agreement. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has strongly opposed the truce and said reaching an agreement with Lebanon would be “a grave mistake” and a “historic missed opportunity to “eradicate Hezbollah.” “It is precisely at the time when Hezbollah is defeated and yearns for a ceasefire that it is forbidden to stop. […] It is not too late to put an end to this agreement! We must continue until absolute victory!”, added the politician on X to Benjamin Netanyahu. The two countries have been at war since the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas against Israel, but the clashes have become more intense since the end of September.

After the study of the text scheduled for 3 p.m. this Tuesday, November 26, a decision by Israel is expected. If the Hebrew state agrees to submit to the agreement, Emmanuel Macron and Joe Biden will not intervene until Wednesday morning. 

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What does the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah provide for ?

The ceasefire agreement imposes similar measures on Israeli forces and those of the Lebanese Hezbollah, a pro-Iranian Shiite Islamist group. It aims to evacuate the area of ​​southern Lebanon where the fighting is concentrated. The text specifically provides for a 60-day truce during which the two belligerents would end their armed presence: the Israeli army should leave Lebanon and Hezbollah should withdraw north of the Litani River according to the American news site Axios.

The departure of these troops would give way to the arrival of thousands of soldiers from the Lebanese army, which has remained on the sidelines of the conflict, except for a few strikes in retaliation for Israeli attacks targeting its infrastructure. At least 5,000 soldiers could be mobilized according to Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib, reports France 24. The Lebanese army would be supported by the Blue Helmets, the UN peacekeeping force.

To ensure compliance with the terms of the ceasefire – which partly echoes those of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006 after a month-long war between Israel and Lebanon, but never fully respected – an international monitoring committee would be set up. Five countries should make up this committee led by the United States.

Conditions still pending, others abandoned

While the broad outlines of the agreement appear acceptable to both parties according to the international community, some conditions have complicated the negotiations. On the issue of the international monitoring committee, the choice of member countries has been debated: Israel opposed the presence of France because of Franco-Lebanese political relations and the disagreements and heated exchanges between Emmanuel Macron and Benyamin Netanyahu. The Hebrew state is said to have finally revised its position, accepting the presence of France. On the other hand, Hezbollah has refused Britain's participation because of its proximity to Israel. Will it concede on this point after the Israeli concession? ?

The fact remains that Israel has put forward another demand: that of having the freedom to strike Lebanon in the event of a violation of the terms of the agreement by the Islamist group. A point defended by Israeli Defense Minister Katz in the name of a “zero tolerance policy”, but which seems hardly compatible with a ceasefire agreement and which would entail a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty. The Hezbollah leader specified for his part that he would not accept an agreement that the condition that it implies a “complete end to aggression”.

Another point could remain a source of tension without being able to be resolved by the terms of the ceasefire agreement: the 13 disputed points of the blue line, the border between Israel and Lebanon. The blue line has been drawn by the UN in 2000 after the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, but thirteen points of this border are disputed between the two countries. Both Israel and Lebanon, however, refuse to negotiate on the distribution of land.