Access to property: the drop in real estate rates is becoming “a trend”, according to the broker Empruntis

Les taux du crédit immobilier poursuivent leur baisse régulière observée ces derniers mois. Avec des banques aux politiques commerciales agressives. MAXPPP – Jean-Luc Flémal

En décembre, ils se situent autour de 3,50 % pour un prêt contracté pour une durée de 20 ans. Et à 3,55 % pour une durée de 25 ans.

Mortgage rates are continuing their decline that has been going on for several months now. “The drop in mortgage rates observed this month is in line with the downward trends observed since the beginning of the year”, notes Nassima Khiari, head of banking relations at the Empruntis group, a mortgage broker.

“Banking institutions, which are in high demand, are maintaining strong competitiveness in the market that is favorable to buyers. Their goal is to have a successful first quarter in 2025, which is pushing them to offer attractive deals to attract new customers”, she adds.

“Attentive to the next Central Bank region European”

Thus, according to Empruntis, the borrowing rate over a 20-year term is currently around 3.50%. It is 3.55% for a 25-year term. “While we must remain attentive to the next meeting of the European Central Bank, which will be held on December 12, and which could still influence rates, there is still time for buyers to get started”, continues Nassima Khiari.

The motion of censure which, on December 4, brought down Michel Barnier's government could have led to a destabilization of the evolution of rates. There is “no surge in credit rates a priori”, we observe on the side of Vousfinancer, another specialized broker. Which suggests, however, “a wait-and-see attitude to be expected on the real estate market”.

A favorable banking policy

Although we must remain vigilant, several elements make it possible to limit the scenario of an increase in credit rates. “The announcement of the dissolution in June and the elections that followed ultimately had no impact on credit rates, we first recall from Vousfinancer. The 10-year government borrowing rates had gone from 3% at the beginning of June to 3.30% at the end of the first round, before falling back to less than 3% at the beginning of August. Credit rates, for their part, had continued to fall.”

Another element, the influence of government borrowing rates on credit rates. “It has been lower for several years. Inflation, the key rates of the European Central Bank, but above all the commercial policy of the banks also influence the level of credit rates. Thus, at the end of 2022, government borrowing rates were at 3%, while banks were lending at 2.30% over 20 years, one point less than now”.

A “very low” credit production in the first half of the year

In addition, as Nassima Khiari also pointed out, “the banks are still in strong customer acquisition, after a first half of 2024 marked by very low credit production”, insists Brice Cardi, President of the L’Adresse network. This is why, “for the month of December, many of them are still lowering their rates, by 0.05 to 0.20 points, but also extending the subsidized loans that were due to end on December 31, thus demonstrating attractive commercial policies that could be harmed by an increase in credit rates”.

“In the current context with the recent successive rate cuts by the European Central Bank, and a next cut probably on December 12, as well as a strong desire of banks to lend whose credit production targets for 2025 are higher than this year, it is likely that the impact on credit rates will remain limited. No bank has yet mentioned raising its rates credit”, estimates analysis Sandrine Allonier spokesperson for Vousfinancer.