An African-American vote that defies the evidence

Photo: Chandan Khanna Agence France-Presse Former U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands at a political rally in Savannah, Georgia, in late September.

Fabien Deglise In Savannah, Georgia

Published at 0:00 Updated at 0:12

• United States

Street artist Gregory Myrick says he voted early for Donald Trump and he proudly displayed his position by putting his candidate’s name, next to the sticker certifying that he went to vote, on a collage placing Leonardo da Vinci’s Mona Lisa in the middle of Vincent Van Gogh’s Starry Night,. His work now lives on his stall set up near Johnson Square in Savannah, in southern Georgia.

“Donald Trump is going to send immigrants home,” says the African-American in his sixties, a veteran of the US Air Force, one of whose bases contributes to the economic and social life of the city a little further south. “We’re talking about 20 million immigrants who entered here illegally and who are offered gifts, social security, free motorcycles, food vouchers to allow them to commit crimes. Kamala Harris, for her part, has done nothing but shit for four years.” The figure, as well as the allegations that follow it, are largely exaggerated and repeat the misinformation widely disseminated on the networks of the American radical right.

Photo: Fabien Deglise Le Devoir Street artist Gregory Myrick proudly spoke out in support of Donald Trump.

A little further away, Sofia Jamison, 41, held up a sign bearing the Democratic candidate's name, sitting at a busy intersection. But appearances can be deceptive. “I'll be honest, I'm not interested in politics,” said the young African-American mother of two, unemployed. “If I'm here, it's because of a guy I met at the gas station who offered to do this for pay for every hour I spend here.”

Then she added: “I'm not even going to vote. Candidates make promises during the election campaign. But that doesn't change anything for me and my living conditions.”

As the conversation went on, she would say that she had nothing against Donald Trump. “I have more against Kamala Harris, who has never been president. Everything she promises to do, she could have done during her four years in the White House with Joe Biden. Trump, at least, has already shown what he is capable of doing, and he's a guy who comes from finance. »

And when asked if the populist's connections to white supremacist movements, as well as the many racist remarks he made on several occasions during his campaign, could not act as a deterrent for her, she says: “Racist ? Trump is not, in my opinion.”

Fragile achievements

Gregory and Sofia are perhaps outliers in Chatham County, which encompasses the greater Savannah area and in 2020 voted more than 58 percent for Joe Biden. That helped, in part, open the door to the White House for him by giving him Georgia. Democrats had never been able to retake the state after Bill Clinton won it in 1992.

200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000

It was on this favorable ground that the party opened its first campaign office in Georgia last June in Savannah, as part of a strategy aimed at rallying the vote of African-Americans, 40% of whom make up the sociographic landscape of the area. A calculation that confirms that Democrats no longer take the African-American vote for granted, and which, a few days before the election, exposes the new Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, the first African-American woman to aspire to the highest office in the executive branch, to results that are still uncertain.

“If the vice president manages to obtain the same support among black voters as Joe Biden, then she will be able to win Georgia,” assures political scientist Charles Bullock of the University of Georgia in an interview. In 2020, Joe Biden rallied 88% of this electorate. “The problem is that the polls have her at 80 percent or less of that vote. She's not where she needs to be, and a lot of that weakness is the vote of black men and young black men.”

Nikki Murchinson, a retiree in her early 60s, can relate. “In 45 years of marriage, my husband has never voted,” says the Kamala Harris campaign volunteer at the door of the Savannah Democratic Party office. “And he doesn’t plan on voting this year. I don’t know why. He just doesn’t care. That’s all. I was talking about it a few days ago with some friends who have the same men at home. Getting them to vote is extremely difficult, because for them, politics, no matter what the issues, is not something important in their lives.” »

Photo: Fabien Deglise Le Devoir Republicans are courting African-American voters in neighborhoods where they predominate.

The numbers from early voting, which ended Friday in Georgia, can partly attest to this. Thus, 3.7 million voters took advantage of it—75 million nationwide—a record high in this key Sun Belt state. The trend is driven by women, 55% of whom voted before Election Day, and by white voters (58%), according to an analysis conducted by the Election Lab at the University of Florida. By comparison, 26% of African-Americans in Georgia went to vote early.

And the presence of Kamala Harris on the ballot is not entirely unrelated to this low rate.

“I suspect there’s a bit of sexism and misogyny in the fact that African-American male voters are less motivated to vote or may prefer Donald Trump,” Bullock says. “These men find him attractive because of his outspokenness, his reputation for business success and his macho image. They also think that their lives were better and that things were cheaper when Trump was in the White House. And they expect the former president to restore their former living conditions.” »

Optimism Despite Everything

A defection of the African-American electorate towards the Democrats and Kamala Harris in 2024 could become an important marker in the history of the United States by confirming the weakening of the appeal of Democrats in this community since President Lyndon B. Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 in Congress.

“That’s not going to happen,” said Dartanya Bentley, an African-American Democratic activist he met at a political rally Friday in Savannah that included Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. The Atlanta pastor’s surprise victory in the 2023 race has made him a rising star in the party. “Kamala Harris is going to win Georgia and every state she needs to win to get to the Oval Office,” Bentley added. “And she’s going to do it, because we can’t afford four more years of Donald Trump. I’m optimistic. I know we’re going to win.” »

Read also

• “It's frustrating”: Americans living on the border, tired of political games on immigration
• Republicans, Democrats at a standoff in North Carolina

He adds: “Of course there are African-Americans who vote for him. I can’t tell you why. But that’s democracy, everyone is free to vote for who they want.”

It was not possible to meet with representatives of the Republican Party to discuss their strategy on the ground to attract the African-American vote. A Trump campaign official in Savannah kindly indicated that they have “a strict policy” prohibiting the presence of journalists in party offices or at events held in the area.

The most recent polling analysis by the FiveThirtyEight project still places the two candidates in an uncertain race in Georgia, with Donald Trump ahead of Kamala Harris by a tiny margin of 1.5 points: 47.1% for the Democrat and 48.6% for the Republican.

This report was funded with support from the Transat International Journalism Fund-Le Devoir.