As Trump Prepares for Mass Deportations, Mexico Is Not Ready

Photo: Olivier Touron Agence France-Presse A portion of the border wall built under the Donald Trump administration is seen on the U.S.-Mexico border, east of Douglas, Arizona, on October 15, 2024.

Mary Beth Sheridan – The Washington Post and Gabriela Martínez – The Washington Post In Mexico City

Published at 0:00

• United States

This week, Donald Trump named Tom Homan as his “border czar” and Stephen Miller as his deputy chief of staff, signaling his firm commitment to a tough anti-immigration agenda. Few countries stand to be hit harder than Mexico by what Trump has described as “the largest deportation in the history of our country.”

According to analysts, nearly half of the 11 million people living illegally in the United States are Mexican. Deporting them is cheaper and easier than sending back migrants from distant countries at odds with Washington, such as Venezuela.

In Mexico, migrant advocates worry about what’s coming. Sending millions of unemployed Mexicans back to cities they left years ago could create chaos in regions already struggling with poverty and organized crime, they say.

“Neither the shelters, nor the border area, nor Mexico is ready for this,” said Héctor Silva, a Protestant pastor who runs the Senda de Vida migrant shelter in Reynosa, across from McAllen, Texas.

Mexico could struggle to absorb those deported

There are an estimated 5 million undocumented Mexicans in the United States. Transporting large numbers of them to their home countries poses enormous logistical problems in both countries.

Currently, U.S. authorities are returning about 500 Mexicans a week to Mexico City, where they are met by government teams that help them find jobs and register for benefits, according to Arturo Rocha, a former senior Mexican immigration official.

Many more are being sent across the U.S.-Mexico border, where there is insufficient infrastructure to accommodate such large numbers of deportees, analysts say. There is a network of migrant shelters, most run by religious groups. But they are often underfunded.

“No one is prepared for deportations of this magnitude,” said the Rev. Francisco Gallardo, a Catholic priest who runs the Casa del Migrante shelter in Matamoros, across from Brownsville, Texas. “Neither governments nor civil society organizations.”

Complicating matters, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October, is still assembling her team. Some key immigration-related positions are vacant.

Mexican economy will suffer

Mexico will likely have to take in large numbers of people at a time when its economy is slowing. The economy could contract even further if Trump follows through on his threat to impose tariffs on Mexican goods. About 80 percent of Mexican products—from avocados to automobiles—are exported to the United States.

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With Mexico’s unemployment rate low, the increase in joblessness may be temporary. Some migrants will end up trading working-class American incomes for much lower wages in Mexico. “They will be plunged into a new form of poverty, which will make them even more desperate,” said Adam Isacson, a migration analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America, an advocacy group.

The economy could face another threat from the deportations: a drop in remittances. Mexicans living in the United States sent home more than $60 billion (C$84 billion) last year.

Large-scale evictions “could seriously hurt the poorest people,” said Tyler Mattiace, Americas researcher at Human Rights Watch.

They could also hurt the U.S. economy, which relies on undocumented workers to fill jobs in industries such as construction, hospitality and agriculture.

Organized crime could also benefit

Tom Homan, Trump’s new “border czar,” said the operation would initially focus on undocumented immigrants who have committed crimes or who have received deportation orders from judges but have not left the United States. “We have to deal with the worst first,” he said in an interview with the Washington Post on Monday.

Few Americans would oppose deporting convicted felons; it was also a priority of the Biden administration.

But the U.S. immigration crackdown has had the unintended effect of empowering organized crime groups south of the border. Cartels make billions of dollars by “taxing” the smugglers migrants hire to cross from Latin America and across the heavily guarded U.S. border. Many criminal groups also kidnap migrants for ransom.

After Trump introduced the “Remain in Mexico” policy in 2019, which requires asylum seekers to wait in Mexico for their immigration hearings, thousands of them were kidnapped by criminal groups in dangerous border cities.

The Rev. Marvin Ajic, a Catholic priest who ran a migrant shelter in Nuevo Laredo for four years, said organized crime groups could benefit if the new deportation measures force large numbers of Mexicans into already violent cities. “The cartels have basically taken over the northern part of Mexico,” he said. Migrants will be more vulnerable.

Mexico’s challenges could extend beyond Mexican migrants

Mexico may be able to take in its own deported citizens. What’s unclear is whether the Trump administration will pressure Mexico to take in migrants from other countries as well.

Trump has called for the reinstatement of the “Remain in Mexico” border policy and Clause 42, which barred migrants from entering on the grounds that they posed a health hazard. Those policies have led to large numbers of non-Mexican migrants pouring into border cities.

“I don’t think Trump’s plan is just to deport Mexicans” to his southern neighbor, said Eunice Rendón, co-director of Agenda Migrante, a Mexico City-based advocacy group. “That’s where the trouble will start. The border will get very congested.”

What is Mexico’s plan? ?

Mexican officials say they have a free hand in dealing with Trump on immigration. Under pressure from the Biden administration, Mexico introduced its own crackdown on migrants last year. That played a key role in reducing U.S. border detentions, which have fallen 78% since December. Today, they are even lower than they were at the end of Trump’s first term.

Asked about Homan’s appointment, Claudia Sheinbaum told reporters Monday that “we will always defend Mexicans across the border.” Her administration has said it will increase staffing at the roughly 50 Mexican consulates in the United States to ensure that migrants’ rights are respected.

But Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of at least 25% if Mexico does not significantly slow the flow of migrants and drugs across the border. Given Mexico’s dependence on American trade, Ms. Sheinbaum may end up giving in to some of Trump’s demands, as her predecessor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, did during Mr. Trump’s first term.

“We are prepared to take in a large number of people; we have done so in the past,” said Mr. Rocha, the former immigration official. “But the key question is how massive the deportations will be.” »

With Valentina Muñoz Castillo