Auto: how to explain the rise in fuel prices ?

© engin akyurt/Unsplash

The start of 2025 has a nasty surprise in store for French drivers. The surveys carried out by the Ministry of Ecological Transition between 13 and 19 January confirm a worrying trend: fuel prices are rising inexorably. This increase, which translates into an increase of 6 cents for diesel and 3 cents for petrol since the start of the year, weighs heavily on household budgets. For a full tank of 35 litres of diesel, the additional cost already reaches 2.10 euros.

A perfect storm of economic and geopolitical factors

The euro is currently going through a difficult period against the dollar, the reference currency for oil trading. This situation directly affects the price of a barrel of Brent, the gold standard for oil financial markets. Since January, its price has risen from 71.7 to 78.6 euros, an increase that is directly reflected in pump prices.

The geopolitical context is amplifying this tension. The United Kingdom and the United States have recently hardened their position on illegal imports of Russian oil. Francis Pousse, president of fuel distributors at Mobilians, confirms this increased vigilance: “These two countries have clearly shown their desire to strengthen controls on these supplies“. This increased surveillance contributes to reducing the supply available on the global market.

200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000

Diesel particularly affected by seasonal effects

The price increase is hitting diesel harder, for reasons that go beyond the simple logic of oil markets. Winter plays a crucial role in this dynamic. Since mid-December, the drop in temperatures has caused a significant increase in demand for heating oil. However, heating oil and diesel share the same refining base.

This competition between heating and fuel needs is creating additional pressure on diesel prices. The usual gap with gasoline has narrowed considerably, from more than 10 cents at the end of October to just 5 cents today. Francis Pousse is nevertheless optimistic for the months to come: “The return of spring should allow for more usual differences between gasoline and diesel. »

The horizon remains uncertain for motorists. The arrival of Donald Trump as President of the United States could reshuffle the cards of the global oil market. His program provides for a massive revival of American oil exploitation, a policy that could lower global prices. The global economic slowdown, particularly marked in China, also suggests a possible moderation in energy demand.

However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) retains control over the global production valves. Its future decisions regarding production quotas will have a decisive impact on price developments.

• Fuel prices are reaching new highs with diesel at €1.72 and SP95-E10 at €1.77
• The weakness of the euro, geopolitical tensions and winter demand for fuel oil explain this increase
• Spring and the global economic slowdown could bring some respite, but OPEC has the last word

📍 To not miss any Presse-citron news, follow us on Google News and WhatsApp.

[ ]