Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a remarkable contrast

Photomontage: Brendan Smialowski and Patrick T. Fallon Agence France-Presse The electoral dynamic is unlikely to change, but the stark contrast between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could swing an already tight race one way or the other.

Philip Bump – The Washington Post The Washington Post

Published yesterday at 6:44 p.m. Analysis

• United States

Joe Biden had barely announced his withdrawal from next November's presidential race when some Democratic supporters, more sarcastic than others, adopted a new angle to attack Republican candidate Donald Trump: “Do you realize how old he is ?”

The parallel with the criticism that pushed Mr. Biden to withdraw from the race is of course intentional. But it is not false. Trump is now going from being a (relatively) young candidate to being an (obviously) old candidate. And this, whether or not he faces the (relatively) spirited Democratic Vice-President Kamala Harris. This is one of the many points of contrast that did not exist when the duel was between MM. Biden and Trump.

The electoral dynamics will probably not change – next November's vote will in essence be a referendum on former President Trump – but the contrast marked between Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris could swing an already tight race one way or the other. A look at what differentiates the two candidates.

Their age

It is appropriate to emphasize this aspect, because it is probably what most distinguishes the two list leaders. (And this would almost certainly be the case for any other new Democratic presidential candidate.)

A week ago, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Donald Trump's campaign was moving along smoothly: after emerging almost unscathed from an assassination attempt, he seemed destined for a new duel against a candidate seen as dodgy. And this year (and especially after the June 27 debate), Mr. Trump's bizarre comments and asides received far less attention than those of Joe Biden.

In 2020, it had been difficult for Republicans to criticize their opponent's frequent verbal blunders, because those of their candidate, particularly while he was president, were more significant. This weakness is now no longer one for the Democratic camp.

Instead, Donald Trump risks facing someone who is two decades younger than him (Ms. Harris is 59; Mr. Trump is 78) and who is not used to rambling. From now on, it is the signs of Mr. Trump’s age that will be scrutinized. It's no longer “the guy who fell going up the stairs” versus “the guy who was too careful going down a ramp at West Point”: now, in the race, it's only the latter.

Their sex

The 2024 presidential campaign initially announced itself as a a near repeat of that of 2016, with two unpopular candidates who depended on the mobilization of their base on the fateful day. If Ms. Harris is chosen to represent the Democratic Party, the echo of 2016 will remain, this time in the clash between a man and a woman.

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Much of the opposition to Hillary Clinton's candidacy eight years ago was rooted in misogyny. It is almost certain that this factor will play a role again. But the political landscape has changed since then. Especially since Ms. Harris led the Biden administration's efforts to protect access to abortion in the United States, while the repeal of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court is directly attributable to Mr. Trump. So, for obvious reasons, many voters will find Ms. Harris a more sympathetic messenger than the former president.

Another notable change: the way Donald Trump treats women is now known to everyone. A month before the 2016 election, the release of an incriminating recording from Access Hollywoodhad sparked a wave of allegations of inappropriate behavior against the former reality TV star. Last year, one of those incidents led to a major ruling: A jury found that Mr. Trump had raped — the judge’s term — the writer E. Jean Carroll.

Oh, and there’s also his criminal conviction for falsifying business records to cover up a sexual relationship with a porn actress when her youngest son was an infant. But that’s part of another rift between the two candidates…

Their dealings with the law

After the announcement of Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race and the (still incomplete) rallying of Democrats around Ms. Harris, her supporters underlined the relevance of the career she led before entering the Senate, then the Vice Presidency: Ms. Harris is an experienced prosecutor, a profession with whom Donald Trump has strained relations. When Ms. Harris sought in vain to obtain the Democratic nomination in 2020, she had also put forward this argument in her favor.

It was before the wave of criminal charges against Mr. Trump and before his trial in the Carroll case. That was before Mr. Trump attempted to overturn the results of the 2020 election, and before he took classified documents to Florida after leaving office. The landscape has changed since then, and in a way that makes this contrast even more vivid.

Mr. Trump's response to his indictments in Manhattan and Fulton County, Ga., has at times been to point out that the prosecutors who obtained the indictments were African-American. More than once, he explicitly accused them of being racist against white people. Which, of course, constitutes a contrast in itself…

Their origins

One of the aspects of American demographics that is often less appreciated is that younger Americans are more likely to be Asian, black, Hispanic or mixed race than their elders. In other words, talking about the political views of young Americans and those of non-white Americans is often talking about the same people.

Ms. Harris, who is only young by the standards of the 2024 presidential race, is a reflection of the growing diversity of the United States. Of Black and South Asian descent, she is one of the 10% of Americans of mixed racial origin. (More ~

Changing American demographics may also play a role in Donald Trump's efforts to characterize white Americans as struggling.

Their record in power

During its convention last week, the Republican Party was relentless in criticizing Joe Biden and his government . Ms. Harris had been mentioned more often than in 2020, but the focus had largely been on the actions and failings of the outgoing president. All of a sudden, these arguments lose their weight.

Because if, as Mr. Biden's vice-president, Ms. Harris can be criticized for her work and the failures (real or exaggerated) of the Democratic camp, she has remained on the sidelines of many decisions. The outgoing government's positions on withdrawal from Afghanistan or the war in Gaza, for example, are much easier to relate to Joe Biden than to Kamala Harris.

The situation is also unusual: the continuity candidate has never been president; his competitor has already occupied the Oval Office. Ms. Harris may appear to voters as a blank slate, but Mr. Trump may not. The standard dynamic is reversed.

And beyond all these differences, there is the most obvious, of course: November's election will pit a Democrat against a Republican who have very different visions of the United States — and the American presidency —, as has always been the case. The shift from Biden to (presumably) Harris means that the choice voters make now revolves around several other dimensions.