Bitcoin: after its historic explosion, an inevitable fall before 2025 ?

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The Bitcoin market is shaken by contradictory movements. The queen of cryptocurrencies, after literally exploding and crossing the symbolic bar of $100,000 at the beginning of December, the latter is now hovering around $95,000 (exactly $95,478.63 at the time of writing). The virtual asset is torn between massive sales by historical investors and the growing appetite of financial institutions.

Despite recent record highs, fears of a deeper correction persist. © Binance

Bitcoin: The Veterans cash in, Wall Street buys

The symbolic $100,000 mark has triggered a wave of profit-taking among historic Bitcoin holders. The phenomenon has taken on considerable proportions: long-term investors have liquidated more than 828,000 bitcoins since Trump's election. An unprecedented volume of sales in the history of crypto. The psychological threshold of $100,000 has caused a major tectonic shift in the Bitcoin market. Simon Peters, an analyst at eToro, explains that “it's a good time to cash in some of their gains” when talking about HODLers.

Faced with this surge, even massive purchases by institutional players have not been able to stem the downward pressure. MicroStrategy's considerable acquisitions (149,800 bitcoins) and absorption by spot ETFs (84,193 bitcoins) could not offset this selling tidal wave.

Analyst Maartunn highlights this striking contrast between the withdrawal of early adopters and the appetite of new institutional players. This upheaval illustrates not only an unprecedented transfer of wealth, but also a profound change in the market: Bitcoin, once a symbol of alternative finance driven by individuals, is gradually shifting into the fold of traditional financial institutions.

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” A shedding of 827,783 BTC by historical investors was observed over a period of 30 days, confirming the bearish trends identified in the BOLT analysis ” he explains in his post on X (see below).

Institutionalization accelerates despite volatility

The year 2024 marks the entry of Bitcoin into a new era with the historic approval of spot ETFs by the SEC. These regulated investment vehicles quickly captured a substantial share of the market, accumulating over 1.104 million bitcoins, or 5% of the total supply. The arrival of Paul Atkins at the head of the SEC, appointed by Donald Trump on December 5, catalyzed this trend by sending a strong signal to the markets: the first cryptocurrency now has an ally within the American regulator, propelling its price beyond $100,000.

However, some analysts are keeping a cool head. Peters is one of them and warns against the corrections inherent in Bitcoin bull markets: “typical retracements or corrections during bitcoin bull markets can range between 20 and 40% ». This perspective is reinforced by the particular seasonality of the end of the year, a traditional period of portfolio rebalancing. According to him, the current decline could become more pronounced before the end of 2024.

Bitcoin is thus at the heart of a battle between two antagonistic forces: the growing institutionalization that brings stability and legitimacy, and on the other side, the tactical movements of traders and the selling pressure of early investors. This market duality, which balances between structural adoption and speculative pressures, should maintain high volatility in the coming weeks.

• Bitcoin has crossed $100,000, but is falling back under pressure from sales by historical investors.
• Financial institutions are supporting the market with massive purchases, but are struggling to stabilize prices.
• Analysts are anticipating a marked correction by the end of the year, amplified by seasonal portfolio adjustments.

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