Budget 2025: the left's motion of censure is voted, Michel Barnier's government overthrown this Wednesday

This Wednesday, December 4, 2024, the left's motion of censure was voted on in the National Assembly. Result: the Barnier government falls, 91 days after the appointment of the Prime Minister.

French MPs voted on Wednesday to censure the government that has been in place for barely three months, a first in France since 1962 that has worsened the political and economic uncertainty in a pivotal country of the European Union.

After three and a half hours of very heated debates in a packed chamber, 331 MPs finally decided to bring down the executive, while 288 votes were required.

“Due to the motion of censure, […] the Prime Minister must submit the government's resignation to the President of the Republic”, declared the President of the National Assembly Yaël Braun-Pivet from the podium.

Having just returned from a state visit to Saudi Arabia, Mr Macron must appoint a new Prime Minister under the terms of the Constitution.

To achieve censure, parliamentarians from the left and the far-right National Rally party, as well as its allies, voted together to censure the government on budgetary issues, while France is heavily indebted.

The leaders of this alliance of convenience have made it clear that beyond the right-wing and centrist government of Michel Barnier, it was Emmanuel Macron who was in their sights, even if the fate of the French president, whose mandate runs until 2027, is not legally linked to that of the executive.

La France insoumise (radical left), through the voice of the group's president in the Assembly Mathilde Panot, immediately asked “Emmanuel Macron to gor”, demanding “early presidential elections”.

The leader of the French far right Marine Le Pen considered that the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier should fall because it perpetuates “the technocratic choices” of President Macron, elected in 2017 and re-elected in 2022, currently at its lowest in the polls.

The three-time unsuccessful candidate in the presidential election, including twice against Mr. Macron added that he had to “himself conclude whether he (was) able to remain (President of the Republic) or not”.

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Mr Barnier had spoken before the vote, less to dissuade elected officials from voting for censure than to set a date in the event of his government being overthrown. France spends 60 billion euros a year paying interest on its debt, more than it spends on its defense or higher education, he recalled.

“We can say what we want, it's reality. Believe me: this reality will not disappear with the magic of a motion of censure”, he warned.

Call for responsibility

This censure follows months of crisis, triggered by the dissolution of the National Assembly wanted by the head of state after the rout of his camp in the European elections in the face of the extreme right.

The early legislative elections that followed resulted in the formation of an assembly divided into three blocs (left-wing alliance, macroeconomists and right-wing, extreme right), none of which has an absolute majority. After 50 days of negotiations, a government of the right and the centre was finally appointed at the beginning of September.

The fall of the executive after only three months in office is a record for brevity since the adoption of the French Constitution in 1958.

The two motions were tabled after the Prime Minister triggered Article 49.3 of the Constitution on Tuesday, allowing a text to be adopted without a vote, on the Social Security budget.

A decision taken at the end of several days of tough budgetary discussions, during which Mr Barnier gave in to several demands from the far right, which he said was always demanding more.

Red Signals

From Saudi Arabia, where he was on a state visit, the French president had for his part stated that he could not “believe in a vote of no confidence” in the government. Mr Macron was due to return to Paris on Wednesday evening, in time to receive Michel Barnier's resignation if the latter were to be overthrown.

Mr Macron must now appoint a new prime minister, against a backdrop of the country's growing debt. Expected to reach 6.1% of GDP in 2024, much higher than the 4.4% forecast in the fall of 2023, the public deficit will miss its 5% target in the absence of a budget, and political uncertainty will weigh on the cost of debt and growth.

Both the left and the center or the right seem disunited in agreeing on a new coalition government.

Marine Le Pen has her eyes fixed on the next presidential election scheduled for 2027. But her political destiny is suspended on a court decision expected on March 31. She risks five years of ineligibility with immediate effect for embezzling funds from the European Parliament for the benefit of her party.

Political instability partly explains the nervousness of the markets, in a context of heavy indebtedness: France's 10-year borrowing rate even rose, on November 27, very briefly above that of Greece, traditionally a bad student in this area in the EU.