Budget adopted by the Assembly: François Bayrou's horizon brightens, the New Popular Front sinks into crisis

The two motions of censure were rejected on Wednesday in the National Assembly. The budget, thus adopted, is then sent to the Senate for its final adoption, which should only be a formality. The Prime Minister has also triggered another 49.3 on the revenue part of the Social Security budget, exposing himself to a third motion of censure from LFI.

Prime Minister François Bayrou unsurprisingly escaped the National Assembly's motions of censure on Wednesday on the 2025 budget and the Social Security financing bill, due to the lack of support from the Socialists and the RN for the texts tabled by LFI with the support of the Communists and the Greens.

The first motion of censure was approved by only 128 deputies and the second by 122 elected officials, while a majority of 289 votes was required in each case.

The failure of the first motion confirms the adoption of the budget by the Assembly via Article 49.3 of the Constitution.

The text will be sent to the Senate this Thursday for final adoption, which should be a mere formality given the political balance in the upper house. The decision of the PS (66 deputies) and the RN (124) not to censure the executive made the fall of the government mathematically impossible.

An “imperfect” budget

This budget is “imperfect” but it is an “emergency step” and “the beginning of the beginning of the beginning”, defended François Bayrou from the podium of the hemicycle.

Opening the parliamentary discussion, LFI deputy Aurélie Trouvé denounced a PLF 2025 “unjustifiable”, “worse than Michel Barnier's”.

But by succeeding him at the podium, Emmanuel Grégoire reaffirmed the position of the PS, namely not to censor the government so that France would be provided with a budget.

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He stressed, under the jeers of LFI whose “sound and fury” he castigated, that the socialists had obtained concessions and assured that this “responsibility does not equal adhesion”.

Another LFI motion The RN has, for its part, endorsed the non-censorship line defended by its president Jordan Bardella, despite a “extremely bad” budget.

The RN gives an appointment at the latest this summer

However, the RN gives an appointment to the government at the latest this summer, when Emmanuel Macron will once again be authorized by the Constitution to dissolve the Assembly.

For its part, LFI tried until the end to encourage elected officials socialists to rebel, without success, a large majority of them following the party's instructions. By refusing censorship, “the PS breaks […] the framework of the New Popular Front”, accused LFI in a press release, promising to “draw the political consequences”.

Before proposing to the communists and the ecologists a meeting to “continue on the basis of a loyal gathering and clearly in opposition to Macronism”. Olivier Faure, first secretary of the PS, described this reaction as a “tap dance number” and a “cinema”.

“There is no leader in the Popular Front […] so no one excludes anyone, he said on BFMTV. The Popular Front will continue to exist as long as there is the will to beat the extreme right.”

A new 49.3

The PS also considers it “entirely possible” to censure the government if it does not obtain the return of retirement at 62, Boris Vallaud specified on Wednesday.

After examining these two motions, François Bayrou once again engaged his responsibility before the Assembly by triggering 49.3 on the second part of the Social Security budget. LFI has announced the filing of a new motion of censure.

The socialists have, for their part, filed a motion of censure “spontaneous” to denounce the expression of “migratory submersion” used by François Bayrou. The text should be debated and rejected next week, while François Bayrou's political horizon is clearing for the moment.