Budget, pensions… a few hours before his general policy statement, François Bayrou continues his negotiations

A few hours before his general policy statement, François Bayrou continued his negotiations on Monday, in particular with the PS, in order to avoid censorship from the left without losing his LR allies who are raising their voices. At the heart of the discussions, the pension reform.

Ballet at Matignon: late Monday afternoon, after an hour spent with the presidents of the two chambers of Parliament, Gérard Larcher and Yaël Braun-Pivet, François Bayrou welcomed a socialist delegation.

While the Prime Minister is due to deliver his general policy statement to the Assembly on Tuesday at 3:00 p.m., the executive's attention is focused on Olivier Faure's party and the guarantees to be given to it in order to obtain a non-censorship agreement. Already received in the afternoon by ministers Catherine Vautrin (Labor and Health), Eric Lombard (Economy) and Amélie de Montchalin (Public Accounts), the socialist negotiators deplored the fact that they were being presented with a budget copy that was “unacceptable as it stands”.

Above all, according to the same source, the ministers have reportedly closed the door to a suspension of the pension reform, which has been loudly demanded by the left. Could François Bayrou reconsider this emblematic measure of Macron's second five-year term during his speech before the Assembly? ?

The Insoumis, who are not taking part in the negotiations, have already announced that they will file a motion of censure, which will be examined on Thursday or Friday. In the absence of support from the RN for this motion, the government should not fall this week anyway.

A “pledge” that divides

The socialists are demanding that this suspension be effective from the start of the renegotiation of the reform envisaged for six months with the social partners, and not only in the event of its success. “The suspension is the guarantee given to a discussion that cannot be a smokescreen”, argues Olivier Faure in Libération.

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If this break were technically feasible, it would mean that people born in 1963 could retire at 62 years and 6 months (with a contribution period of 42 years and one quarter) instead of 62 years and 9 months (with a duration of 42.5 years) as planned. But this suspension divides the presidential camp.

Some seem ready to accept it, as the price of political stability, like Yaël Braun-Pivet who affirmed “not being opposed in principle” to the fact of “halting” the pension reform in order to “re-discuss” it.

Others, however, oppose it, citing its cost, estimated at around 3 billion euros for 2025 alone. “Suspending means repealing, we must stop playing with words. We cannot allow ourselves to unravel the pension reform”, warned Macronist MP Mathieu Lefèvre on RMC.

“It is never a bad idea to discuss (…) But going back, wasting time (and) placing France in a more critical financial situation seems to me to be a bad idea”, also warned Edouard Philippe from his hometown of Le Havre.

“Jump into the void”

At his side, the Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau recalled having supported this reform in the name of “the higher interest of the nation”, while judging that “there are things that can be negotiated again”, notably “some grist to the mill” on “professional wear and tear” and “senior employment”.

The PS proposes to finance this suspension by the Pension Reserve Fund, created at the end of the 90s, but “it's not a jackpot”, warned the Minister of Labor Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet on Radio J. The right, for its part, threatens to leave the government if François Bayrou makes too many concessions to the left.

In an interview with Parisien, the leader of the LR deputies Laurent Wauquiez estimated that “suspending (the reform) without an alternative scenario” would amount to “jumping into the void without a parachute. It will be without the Republican Right!”.

“I think that under these conditions, the right could no longer participate in this government”, added the president of the Ile-de-France region Valérie Pécresse on France Inter.

By Tuesday, the discussions will continue, with never far from Mr. Bayrou the shadow of the President of the Republic, whose record is closely linked to the pension reform. Emmanuel Macron received his Prime Minister at the Elysée on Friday morning, in the company of the Ministers of the Economy Eric Lombard, of Public Accounts Amélie de Montchalin and of Labor and Health Catherine Vautrin.