Can TikTok Really Disappear in the US ?

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Remember this date, next Sunday, January 19, in just a few days, TikTok could be completely banned in the United States, under a law adopted in 2024. The only alternative offered to the Chinese social network is to sell its American branch of the application. ByteDance, its parent company, is trying everything to prevent this ban.

A compromised judicial future

Only the Supreme Court or President Joe Biden (who will still be in office that day) can prevent the implementation of this measure. And precisely, the Chinese company tried to plead its case to the judges on January 10. According to experts consulted by Business Insider, however, it is unlikely that the latter will be encouraged to cancel the application of this text.

Quoted by our colleagues, Matthew Schettenhelm, litigation and policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, estimates the chances that the Supreme Court will decide to save TikTok at 20%: “I expect the court to refuse the stay, probably soon, and also uphold the law”.

If confirmed, it would only be a confirmation of the verdict of the United States Court of Appeals which concluded: “The First Amendment exists to protect freedom of expression in the United States. Here, the government acted solely to protect that freedom from a foreign enemy nation and to limit that adversary's ability to collect data on people in the United States.”

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Donald Trump as TikTok's savior?

All eyes are now on President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20. The latter has repeatedly given his support to the social network which allowed him to reach a younger audience than his traditional electorate during the last election campaign.

After meeting with the service's CEO, Shou Chew, he filed an amicus curiae brief with the Supreme Court. The text addressed to the court, several of whose members are theoretically loyal to him, explains:

President Trump opposes banning TikTok in the United States at this stage and is seeking to resolve the issues at stake through political means once he takes office.

The Republican could try to ask the Justice Department not to apply the law, but according to the legal analysts consulted, this seems quite tricky to put in place. The billionaire could then push for a sale of TikTok's American assets, which is provided for in the law, even if ByteDance is currently opposed to this prospect.

It also remains to be seen how the Chinese government will react, which may not appreciate this approach. In any case, this issue is set to be a hot one and could further aggravate the situation and the exchanges between these two rival powers.

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