Canada must be ready to defend itself against China and Russia, says Minister Blair

Photo: Justin Tang Archives La Presse canadienne Bill Blair a appelé à une évolution «nécessaire» de l’approche du Canada en matière de défense et de sécurité nationale, qui nécessite d’importants nouveaux investissements de la part d’Ottawa.

Amid “evolving global threats,” Canada must invest more to defend itself against Russia and China, federal Defence Minister Bill Blair said Thursday morning.

The minister was appearing before a parliamentary committee in Ottawa to provide an update on priorities under his mandate, which he said has evolved as new global conflicts emerge. “The world has changed significantly since the mandate letter was issued in 2021. That was well before Russia invaded Ukraine, China escalated its coercive behaviour, and conflict in the Middle East destabilized regional and global security,” the minister told elected officials.

Mr. Blair called for a “necessary” evolution in Canada's approach to defence and national security that requires significant new investments from Ottawa. To this end, the Minister recalled the investments already unveiled earlier this year in the defence policy update, which provides for $8.1 billion over five years and $73 billion over 20 years.

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The amounts are largely allocated to the defence of the Canadian Arctic, at a time when the melting of polar ice is facilitating access to these waters.

In recent years, Russia has strengthened its military presence in the Arctic by reopening and modernizing several bases and airfields abandoned since the end of the Soviet era, while China seeks to increase its access and influence in the region.

“The war in Ukraine taught us a lot about our own strengths and vulnerabilities. […] We are learning from it to invest in the Canadian Arctic, to better detect, intercept and neutralize threats,” added Minister Blair.

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Lack of short-term vision

Ottawa’s planned investments are clearly insufficient to address the threat, criticized two experts appearing before the Standing Committee on National Defence two weeks ago.

Justin Massie, co-director of the Strategic Analysis Network and professor of political science at the Université du Québec à Montréal, notably deplored the “strategic incoherence” of the defence policy update for short-term threats. “89% of the amounts announced will take place between 2030 and 2044. There is clearly no sense of urgency regarding international threats,” he argued.

According to him, the end of the war in Ukraine, a potential Russian aggression in Latvia and a potential Chinese aggression against Taiwan are imminent threats to Canada and its allies. “Canada has a 20-year policy to deal with tangible threats within a five-year horizon,” he summarized.

At the same committee meeting, Rob Huebert, associate professor in the department of political science at the University of Calgary, criticized Ottawa’s overly “political” approach. “What we needed in [the defence policy update] is to recognize that we can’t just talk about numbers. In Canada, we’re fixated on 2% [of GDP in military spending] when in reality, what our allies are asking us to do is be prepared to go to war,” he told elected officials.

Many had criticized the investments planned in the defence policy update, when it was unveiled in April, since spending will remain below NATO’s target of 2% of GDP in 2029-30. “Canada's credibility is very low, because we made this commitment over 10 years ago and it still hasn't been met. It won't be met in the short term either,” added Professor Massie.

This summer, the U.S. Department of Defense also released a strategic update on its approach to the Arctic, emphasizing enhanced military capabilities and proactive measures against Russia and China. “These two competitors are increasingly collaborating in the Arctic, with implications for the security of the United States and our allies and partners,” the document reads.