Canadians think Trudeau will be in next election, poll finds

Photo: Valerian Mazataud Le Devoir Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a press conference at the Howie Morenz Arena on July 3 in Montreal

Alessia Passafiume – The Canadian Press in Ottawa

Posted at 7:32 a.m.

• Canada

A majority of Canadians think Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will remain leader of his party in the next election, even though his approval rating is still extremely low, a new poll suggests.

Questions about Mr. Trudeau's future have swirled for more than a year, while his party is far behind the Conservatives in voting intentions. These questions intensified last week, when the Liberals lost a stronghold to the Conservatives in a by-election in Toronto.

A Léger poll, conducted online with 1,521 people between June 28 and 30, revealed that two-thirds of respondents believe that Justin Trudeau will remain leader of the Liberal Party until the next election. Under the fixed-date electoral law, the next national vote must take place by fall 2025.

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One in three respondents said they thought the Liberal leader would resign before the end of this year, and many of them thought it would happen by Labor Day.

Although the results were statistically weighted, they cannot be assigned a margin of error because online polls are not considered truly random samples.

Justin Trudeau, for his part, said Wednesday that he had responded to calls from his party members, but he maintained that he would lead the Liberals in the next election.

The poll suggests widespread dissatisfaction with Justin Trudeau, with only one in four respondents approving of his job as prime minister, compared to nearly two in three who said they disapproved of his performance.

These figures are nearly identical to those from a Léger poll conducted in November 2023.

These results also come after a grueling parliamentary session in which the Liberals pushed back against constant accusations from the Conservatives that the government is out of touch with Canadians and made things worse after nine years in power.

Disapproval rates for Mr. Trudeau are highest in the Prairies, while Quebec has the highest level of support for the Prime Minister.

Love for the prime minister is almost non-existent among those who identified as conservative voters, with only 8% approving of his performance.

Three in four Liberal voters said they approved of the Prime Minister's work, compared to 32% of NDP voters who said the same.

The poll suggests that a large majority — 82% — of Conservative and NDP voters want Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to be on the ballot in the next election.

However, only 63% of Liberal voters want Justin Trudeau to stay.

Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives record a double-digit lead over Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals have been voting intentions for over a year. Another Léger poll, published at the end of June, showed a slight narrowing of this lead, but the Conservatives remained 14 points ahead of the Liberals.