Conservatives neck and neck with Bloc in voting intentions in Quebec

Photo: Christinne Muschi The Canadian Press Supporters hold signs as Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks at a rally in Montreal in June. Quebec remained the only province where the Conservative Party of Canada failed to take the lead, held back by support for the Bloc Québécois.

The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) is now neck and neck with the Bloc Québécois in voting intentions in Quebec, according to a new poll by Abacus Data.

Pierre Poilievre’s party has been riding high across the country for over a year, but Quebec was the only province where it failed to take the lead, held back by support for the Bloc Québécois.

The Conservatives now have 31% of voting intentions, compared to 30% for the Bloc, according to the new poll. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals come in third, with 24%, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 12%.

Caution is advised, however, since this could be a statistical anomaly, warns Philippe J Fournier, the creator of 338Canada, an electoral projection model. The firm’s survey was conducted among 1,550 Canadians from July 31 to August 7.

“The CPC’s numbers are probably too high. But the fact that it’s in this range implies that the Conservatives are no longer around 17% as they were for 15 years in Quebec,” he says.

Still in Quebec, the Léger firm gave the Conservatives 26% in June, tied with the Liberals, and the Bloc Québécois at 31%.

“What surprised me most were the Bloc’s figures. […] The fact that they are only at 30% clearly indicates that the Conservatives are taking votes from the Liberals, and are also capping the Bloc,” analyzes Philippe J. Fournier.

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The Conservatives currently hold 9 seats in Quebec, much less than the Bloc (32) and the Liberals (34).

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Summer tours to court

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has made numerous appearances across Quebec this summer, visiting several ridings he believes he can win in the next election. During his speeches, he has not hesitated to attack the Bloc Québécois, which he falsely accuses of forming a coalition with the Liberal government.

The CPC has no shortage of financial means to make itself known in Quebec, with the party having pocketed more than $20 million in donations since the beginning of the year, surpassing the Liberals by $13 million. The leader made his summer tour in a recreational vehicle that featured a photo of his family and the message of “common sense,” his party’s slogan.

Last week, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet began a tour of the Magdalen Islands, where a major race is expected between Bloc candidate Kristina Michaud and Liberal Minister Diane Lebouthillier in the next election.

Across the country, the Conservatives maintain their lead of about 20 points over the Liberals, and remain in the lead in all demographic groups.

The next federal election is scheduled for October 2025, but could come sooner if the NDP tears up its support and confidence agreement with the Liberals.