Could Climate Sceptic Milei Go So Far as to Withdraw Argentina from the Paris Agreement?

Photo: Luis Robayo Agence France-Presse At COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, Argentina had expressed its desire to remain in the Paris Agreement. But a year later, with a Milei comforted by the victory of its ally Donald Trump, whose climate skepticism it shares, doubts are arising about the respect of Argentina's commitments.

Sonia Avalos – Agence France-Presse in Buenos Aires

Published and updated on November 15

• Americas

Argentina's decision to withdraw its delegation from the UN climate conference in Baku has stoked fears that President Javier Milei, a climate sceptic like his American ally Donald Trump, will decide to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement, according to experts and opponents.

The withdrawal from COP29 of a nevertheless minimal Argentine delegation — a handful of experts dedicated to technical reports — is part of a “reassessment of the situation, a reflection” on the part of the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, justified the spokesperson for the presidency on Thursday, without further details, the day after the departure from Baku.

The said head of diplomacy for the past two weeks, Gerardo Wehrtein, confirmed, in an interview with the Washington Post, that “we are reassessing our strategy on all issues related to climate change.” But he assured that the government has not taken any decision to withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement, the keystone of climate action.

The agreement commits signatory countries to reduce their emissions to limit global warming to 2°C, if possible 1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial era.

“Very bad signal”

At COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, Argentina had expressed its desire to remain in the Paris Agreement. But a year later, with a Milei strengthened by the victory of its ally Donald Trump, whose climate skepticism it shares, doubts are arising about the respect of Argentina's commitments.

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“If the Milei government decides to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, we would face significant legal and constitutional implications. But beyond that, it would lead us down a foggy path of isolation, to a place on the geopolitical map where only Iran, Libya and Yemen await us,” said opposition MP Maximiliano Ferraro.

“In Baku, key issues for the global energy transition and green finance are being discussed, which represent investment opportunities that Argentina cannot afford to ignore,” warned his party Civic Coalition (centre-right), condemning Baku’s withdrawal.

Greenpeace Argentina called it a “very bad signal” to “withdraw from decision-making on a subject as sensitive and critical as financing [for aid to environmental policies].”

“We do not deny the existence of climate change,” assured the Washington Post Minister Wehrtein. “And we certainly agree to take the necessary measures to mitigate it.”

But there is doubt, since Milei is an “anarcho-capitalist” — as he describes himself — who has in the past expressed his belief that climate change is just a “cycle” of history, not “a responsibility of man.”

Or that nature must “serve human beings and their well-being, not the other way around […]. That is why the main environmental problem we have is extreme poverty. And that can only be solved if we exploit our resources.”

Oscar Soria, director of The Common Initiative, an environmental NGO based in New York, says he is picking up “speculation about the possibility of Argentina leaving the Paris Agreement, and even rumors of an imminent announcement.”

But, he warns, President Milei “will need the approval of parliament” and “given the current political situation in the country” with Milei’s party in a very small minority, “there is about a 50/50 chance that such a scenario will occur.”

“A key factor to consider,” he says: “The international treaties ratified by Argentina have constitutional status,” such as the Paris Agreement ratified in 2016.

With or without Argentina

“It is difficult to predict what will happen, but I know that many environmentalists and fellow Argentines will be ready to take legal action,” he emphasizes.

For biologist Guillermo Folguera, from the public research organization Conicet, hope lies in civil society to counter “a Milei that says without blushing that the environment only serves to generate goods.”

In Argentina, “hundreds of organizations are mobilizing to […] think about a Latin American project against environmental plunder,” he assures.

And Mr. Soria is convinced that “global action against climate change will continue, with or without Argentina. As was the case when Trump decided to leave the Paris Agreement in 2017,” and that Democrat Joe Biden, upon his election in 2021, confirmed the return of the United States.