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DIRECT. Results of the 2024 legislative elections: a brand new key trend in this 2nd round

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“DIRECT. Results of the 2024 legislative elections: a brand new key trend in this 2nd round”

Some results of the second round of legislative elections are already available. known and a new trend is emerging in voting throughout France. This election promises to be historic.

►Find your municipality or constituency to consult the legislative results: The essentials

This Sunday July 7 will mark a turning point in French political life, whatever the results of this 2nd round of the 2024 legislative elections. Early estimates predicted an institutional blockage without a majority. absolute for no side, but it is also possible for a political bloc to create a surprise.
A first important lesson on the 2024 legislative elections is emerging today: participation in elections. noon s'éhigh&grave; 26.63%. An increased participation rate compared to the first round à the same time (25.90%) and especially in comparison to the legislative elections two years ago (18.99%).
A strong trend is emerging today. The surveys have identified this week a determining factor in the vote: the most mobilized voters are from the RN with candidates in the immense majority constituencies. Investigations have shown that that left-wing and macronist sympathizers are more reluctant to accept vote in the event of a duel without their candidate in their constituency. Abstention is therefore not neutral: with a high level of participation, there are two scenarios: either the voters who counted ;#39;abstain and renounce the "dam" finally decidedé to vote ; either the electorate of the RN and its allies are even more mobilized than expected.
The first results of these legislative measures have already been seen. été revealed for this second round, those from overseas who voted earlier. ;eacute;, but also a surprise: the election in the 3rd constituency of Martinique of the socialist Béatrice Bellay.
Emmanuel Macron could speak today, after 8 p.m., his entourage indicated à l'AFP that "everything will depend on the results".

Live

15:34 – Voters very mobilized in Corrèze, where Hollande is a candidate

Some departments mobilize more than others during elections and this is again the case this Sunday with this 2nd round of legislative elections. It was in Bouches-du-Rhône that voters were elected. the most numerous à go to their polling station, with a participation rate of 34.59% & midday. According to figures from the Ministry of the Interior, voters also mobilized a lot in & nbsp;Corrèze (33.88%), the department in which François Hollande is a candidate in the constituency ballot box. Also note the mobilization for these legislative measures in Cantal (33.48%) and in Dordogne (33.2%).

15:31 – It is in Seine-Saint-Denis that readers travel the least today

The department where the readers have so far been abstained from voting is Seine-Saint-Denis: the participation rate was 12.77% 12 p.m., compared to 17.93% in the first round. Two other departments of Ile-de-France and Ile-de-France voted very little. : Val-de-Marne (17.07%) which arrives after Hauts-de-Seine (18.72%). The next participation figures will be known à 5 p.m., but the trend is already very clear; in these territories.

The results of the second round of legislative elections were anticipated by the polling institutes, which carried out & oacute; projections in the number of seats in the future Assembly. Here is the projection carried out by the media Grand Continent, which made fine estimates constituency by constituency, relying on the Cluster 17 survey models to take into account the most likely vote reports. No new estimates have been given since Friday July 5.

15:10 – The number of proxies down this Sunday

2.4 million proxies are active today for the 2nd round of these legislative elections in France, compared to 2.6 million in the 1st round. It's a little less, but that doesn't mean that the French are less mobilized or will vote less. The first participation figures even seem to indicate the opposite! The number of French people going to their polling station themselves could simply be greater today. An estimate of the final level of participation will be given around 6:30 p.m. on this page.

14:54 – After the final ;eacute;results of the 2nd round of legislative elections, the political crisis ?

We must understand that this is the political future of the country for at least a year: Emmanuel Macron can no longer dissolve the National Assembly before this time. This delay and even his resignation will not change anything. the composition of the Assembly which will be in place tomorrow. If the results of this 2nd round give a majority absolute &agrav; a camp, then a government will be appointed in a stable environment clear. Otherwise, you should expect & the formation of a coalition that brings together beyond political camps with the appointment of a "technical" and apolitical, or the constitution of a minority government the National Assembly, but who would seek compromises, but who can be dismissed at the request of the National Assembly. any time. The first scenario is in a way an incongruity. democratic, which does not take the measure of what was expressed by the vote ; the second opens an instability; major. In both cases we are moving towards a major political crisis in France.

14:36 - Businesses are barricaded & agrave; Paris

In the capital, many traders barricade themselves for fear of overflows.

The Head of State could give his analysis of the results of these legislative elections of which he is personally responsible. the initiative. He could also and above all draw his political conclusions to indicate what institutional action he intends to carry out: resignation seems completely excluded, but Emmanuel Macron could say this evening: what the French should expect: the appointment of a Prime Minister from the opposition very quickly, if a far-right political group or left obtains a majority absolute: the opening of discussions with certain groups from the center, left and right to try to form a coalition, which would exclude the RN and LFI. The head of state could consider that this scenario of a political coalition, on a common program, is already in place. dedicated to failure and discuss this evening and announce a new mode of governance, with the idea of forming a technical government, with the support of the new Assembly ;e to agree on some reforms and a way out of the crisis.

14:19 – From Trieste, the pope François castigates « populist temptations »

Present &at; Trieste (north-eastern Italy) for the closing of the 50th Social Weeks organized by the Italian Catholic Church, Pope Francis castigated ;eacute; the « populist temptations » and warned against « the culture of rejection ». Without ever mentioning any country, and while the second round of legislative elections is being held this Sunday which could see the National Rally come to power, the head of the Catholic Church has declared: « Ideologies are attractive. (…) They seduce, but lead you to someone else. deny you. »

14:15 – Who votes the most today ? The é RN readers "surmobilisés" ?

This Sunday, the scenario of a very strong mobilization of the RN electorate is assessed with a certain probability. by experts. “Left-wing voters who did not appreciateé the alliance with LFI could abstain when they have to do so. vote for a rebel; among certain LRs, neither-nor risks winning in a LFI-RN duel, and the Macronists could refuse to support a left which will not fail to put them in difficulty. the President of the Republic, analyzed in particular the political scientist Luc Rouban on Public Sénat recently. The latter indicated that the ;contingency to have after the results of the 2nd round a majority ranging from environmentalists and communists to the Republican right would be perceived as a democratic denial for the RN electorate and lead to its overmobilization.

14:03 – Intelligence fears overflows in several cities in France

Territorial intelligence fears possible outbreaks of violence borders, urban violence or clashes in several cities, à the outcome of the results this evening, like Nantes, Paris, Bordeaux, Angers, Lyon, Rennes, or even Toulouse.

In Paris, instructions were issued. given to traders, particularly between Bastille and République. "The police told us that if çstarted ç run, we absolutely had to close,” explains a shopkeeper to the company. France Info.

In Bordeaux, "all undeclared protest gatherings in the city center of Bordeaux" are prohibited from 6 p.m., just like à Toulouse. Fireworks are prohibited, and law enforcement drones are permitted.

In Marseille, the security system was é reinforced. A demonstration is planned for next week. 9:30 p.m. on the Old Port.

1:45 p.m. – Emmanuel Macron took advantage of of a crowd bath with the French at Le Touquet

After voting à midday in his constituency of Le Touquet in the company of his wife, Emmanuel Macron granted himself for more than an hour, a crowd bath among the French who came to see him. The head of state should undoubtedly return to Paris during the day in order to follow the announcement of the first results of the vote, which are expected à from 8 p.m.

1:45 p.m. – Will Gabriel Attal resign this evening after the ;eacute;results of the 2nd round ?

Nothing obliges the head of government to resign this evening or Monday, nor even before the new National Assembly is formed. Gabriel Attal will resign very quickly if he is personally defeated in the legislative elections in his constituency, in which he is a candidate. Otherwise, he can very well wait until the president decides to appoint a new Prime Minister. It is also likely that Gabriel Attal will agree with Emmanuel Macron on the timetable and to remain in place during negotiations with the different political groups to find a possible government coalition, according to the The results of the legislative elections and the composition of the Assembly. on France 2 last Friday, à a few hours before the end of the campaign, the Prime Minister wasé questioned on his personal destiny &agrav; the outcome of the legislative results. "My person matters little in what I am fighting for", had swept awayé Gabriel Attal. And add: "Next week, I don't know what I will do, where? I would do it, but I know who I would do it for: for the French."

1:34 p.m. – Focus on an upcoming election issue: what result for François Hollande ?

The former president surprised everyone by running for the legislative elections, moreover under the banner of the New Popular Front. In the first constituency of Corrèze, whereù he has already été Elected 3 times, François Hollande can regain a seat in the second round. the Assembly. He arrived largely first during the first round, but no withdrawal took place last Sunday in his favor. He was ahead of the RN candidate by 7 points and LR candidate Francis Dubois by 9 points who therefore decided to vote for the RN candidate. to hold on to block à the former mayor of Tulle. But in this NFP-LR-RN triangular, the battle of the rights can also benefit à François Hollande. Result à 8 p.m. on our zoom on the election in the constituency of François Hollande.

13:33 – Louis Boyard, François Bayrou or Jean-Philippe Tanguy, the politicians are at the polls

The ballet of politicians in French offices continues throughout France. On the side of the majority presidential election, the president of MoDem François Bayrou voted for à the Pau city hotel. As for à Thomas Cazenave, the Minister Delegate to Public Accounts and candidate à his re-election in Gironde, the latter also slipped; his ballot in the ballot box.
Arrival leading in the first round in the 3rd constituency of Val-de-Marne with 42.17% of the vote, the rebellious Louis Boyard also voted. in his stronghold. Deputy coming from the far right, Jean-Philippe Tanguy, who missed out Having barely been elected in the first round in the 4th constituency of the Somme with 49.63% of the vote, the latter voted à Montdidier.

13:29 – Exchanges of messages between Marine Tondelier and Emmanuel Macron

La Tribune reveals that the boss of the Ecologists and the president have exchanged positions. several text messages after the results of the first round. "Your responsibilities are immense. You must take clear measures to withdraw your candidates who came in third position in the event of an RN risk, writes Marine Tondelier. The president responds: "I will be at your disposal. the height. I know what role you play in the fight against the RN." The exchanges resumed a few days later, when a Macronist candidate refused to step down ;sister in a constituency. "I'm in charge”, says Emmanuel Macron.

13:11 – Emmanuel Macron will he speak this evening ?

The president's entourage indicated; à AFP that "nothing had been decided" for the moment, because "everything will depend on the results".

12 :59 – A deputy independentist elected in New Caledonia

In the 2nd constituency of New Caledonia, Emmanuel Tjibaou, son of the independentist leader Jean-Marie Tjibaou, assassiné in 1989, was elected with 57% of the votes. A first since 1986. In the 1st constituency, it is Nicolas Metzdorf, loyalist and rapporteur of the bill on the thawing of the electoral body , who wins with 52.41%.

12:55 – Paris, the exception which proves the rule ?

In the capital, participation is down compared to à last week. She stood tall and tall. 22.03% & noon, against 25.48% in the first round.

The president has just slipped his ballot into the ballot box, in Le Touquet . He should spend part of the day there.

12:39 – What are the departments où who voted the most à 12 hours?

Les Bouches-du-Rhône (34.59%), Corrèze (33.88%) and Cantal (33.48%) are the departments where most people live. the most voted. On the other hand, the department where we voted the least à noon is Seine-Saint-Denis (12.77%).

President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Le Touquet shortly after noon, accompanied by his wife Brigitte Macron. The President of the Republic, whose majority in the National Assembly only comes in third place in voting intentions according to the latest estimates published before the electoral truce, is playing for big this Sunday at on the occasion of the second round of legislative elections.

There is indeed an effect of participation on the results of the vote: taking into account the withdrawals from the second round, voters have shown very different intentions to mobilize in the surveys according to their political sympathies. The most mobilized voters are from the RN, who in a large majority have indicated that they intend to vote. Left-wing sympathizers are more reluctant to go to the polling stations today, in the event of an RN-Ensemble! duel in their constituency. And the voters of Ensemble! are even more reluctant to vote in the event of an RN! NFP duel in their constituency. Institutes have even identified a level of abstention of around 60% in this electorate in this configuration. Abstention is therefore not neutral: with a high level of participation, there are two scenarios: either the voters who were planning to abstain so as not to vote for a political opponent, to block the way, have finally decided to vote; or the electorate that intends to vote, in a larger proportion therefore, the voters of the RN and its allies, are even more mobilized than expected.

12:20 – A level of participation unprecedented for more than 40 years

26.63% participation, this is the highest figure ever noon on a 2nd round of legislative elections since 1981, elections organized one month after the arrival of the left and François Mitterrand in power. The turnout at noon was then 28.3% for a final turnout of 73.08%.

12:08 – The candidates in the running for the election vote in turn

François Hollande in Tulles (NFP-PS), Eric Ciotti (LR-RN) in Nice, Bérangère Couillard (Ensemble) in Gironde, Sylvain Maillard (Ensemble) in Paris… the candidates still in the running for the second round of the legislative elections continue to go to the polls to vote.

12:08 – Turnout is still up: already a lesson on the results of the 2nd round

The French seem to attach great importance to this 2nd round of legislative elections. The level of participation is not at all neutral today, its impact is real on the outcome of the elections for a very clearly identified reason. This is based on opinion surveys: there are many electorates who plan to vote less. If this participation is in reality rising then this may mean that the 2nd round abstainers have finally decided to vote. to mobilize.

According to official figures from the Ministry of the Interior, participation reached 26.63% & agrave; 12 p.m. à the occasion of the second round of legislative elections. As a reminder, during the first round, à At the same time, 25.9% of voters had gone to the polls.

News

How are the results of the 2nd round of legislative elections established ?

Legislative elections make it possible to designate the 577 deputies of the National Assembly, representatives of the ;quot;sovereignty&eac; national". The second round of legislative elections is organized between candidates having received at least 12.5% of those registered. If no candidate reaches this threshold, the two leading candidates face each other. conversely, take place if three or four candidates reach these 12.5% registered.

The second round of legislative elections often sees strategic alliances and withdrawals between parties being put in place to maximize the chances of victory against a common adversary. During this 2nd round, voting is done according to the vote. the majority simple.

This Sunday, July 7, each citizen expresses their choice in a voting booth, guaranteeing the secrecy of the vote, before placing their ballot in a transparent ballot box. The counting, a key moment of the election evening, is carried out publicly, under the supervision of assessors and scrutineers to prevent any fraud. The results are then centralized by the Ministry of the Interior, which ensures their verification and official publication. Any appeals concerning irregularities are examined by the Constitutional Council, which guarantees the regularity of elections.

The candidate who obtained the most votes is then elected. the Assembly. The results of the legislative elections in France result from a supervised process, respectful of democratic and transparent principles, ensuring that each citizen voice is properly taken into account and represented.

Legislative results, majority and government

The results of legislative elections are decisive for French democracy and the way in which French democracy is governed. nbsp;the country. The party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats generally constitutes this majority, which can be either absolute (289 seats) , or relative, thus giving the political direction and the nature of the laws passed during the mandate. A majority stable parliamentary system ensures efficiency of the government and facilitates the implementation of its reforms. In the absence of a majority, absolute, coalitions can be formed to govern.

The government must respond to parliament, which can confirm or reject its legitimacy. by a vote of confidence or a motion of censure. Thus, he must align himself with a majority. parliamentary result of the elections because à At almost any time the government can be dismissed if a majority of deputies wish it, by voting a motion of censure. Following the results of the legislative elections, the president of the Republic generally appoints a Prime Minister, either from his own party in the event of victory, or from the majority party if another tendency wins, or a figure who puts agree a majority coalition. This last hypothesis would be a first in France under the Fifth Republic.

When the President and the majority parliamentary belong à opposing parties, we talk about cohabitation. In this situation, the Prime Minister, who holds daily executive power, may have political positions that diverge from those of the President, which may lead to tensions and may not ;eacute;require compromises.

Teilor Stone

Teilor Stone has been a reporter on the news desk since 2013. Before that she wrote about young adolescence and family dynamics for Styles and was the legal affairs correspondent for the Metro desk. Before joining Thesaxon , Teilor Stone worked as a staff writer at the Village Voice and a freelancer for Newsday, The Wall Street Journal, GQ and Mirabella. To get in touch, contact me through my teilor@nizhtimes.com 1-800-268-7116