Donald Trump faced with the delicate choice of a running mate

Photo: Samuel Corum Getty Images via Agence France-Presse While opting for a discreet comrade in arms, will former President Donald Trump prefer one who brings him closer to money, to youth or to voters who have distanced themselves from him?

Fabien Deglise

Posted at 3:06 p.m. Analysis

• United States

Who will be Donald Trump's running mate for next November's election ? And when will the announcement be made ?

The questions are being heard more and more as the Republican National Convention approaches which will open on July 15 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin and where the ex-president plans to make his choice known. But he could also very well surprise and announce it earlier.

For weeks, rumors and negotiations have multiplied behind the scenes of the Republican camp around potential candidates . There would now be seven left, placed on the garden side before the curtain rises. Seven aspiring vice-presidents placed at the heart of a decisive, delicate and complex choice because of their contributions as varied as they are fundamental to the populist's electoral campaign. Autopsy of the forces present.

Those who bring in money

This is the crux of the matter. Money is certainly what Doug Burgum, North Dakota governor, at the top of Donald Trump's list of favorites, is said to be preparing to do enter the ex-president's new race towards the White House.

Before taking the helm of the small state, the man became a billionaire by selling his software company at Microsoft, then worked in real estate development and venture capital.

At the start of the Republican primaries last year, he financed his candidacy against Donald Trump out of his own pocket, before quickly withdrawing from the race and becoming a visible and audible defender of the real estate mogul, on TV, during political rallies and fundraising campaigns.

Rich man surrounded by rich people, Doug Burgum also has everything to become the new Mike Pence, the unconditional loyalty sought by Donald Trump , in addition. We will remember that the former vice-president was rejected by Donald Trump after he refused to embark on the undemocratic project of overturning the result of the 2020 presidential election.

The governor of North Dakota is, just like Pence, calm, composed, a little dull, from a very insignificant state and he should therefore not seek the spotlight too much to overshadow the ex-president.

The arrival of the senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, in the Republican ticket would also stimulate the contributions of very generous donors who for the moment are turning away from Donald Trump, put off by his extremism and his violent rhetoric. A rising figure within the party, before the birth of Trumpism, Rubio remains a respected politician among the conservative and moderate fringes within the political party, particularly on questions of foreign policy – ​​territory that Trump has undermined by getting a little too close to dictators — and national security.

His candidacy, while attracting a less white and more diverse electorate, could nevertheless highlight the many criticisms that the senator has made against Donald Trump, as the two men faced each other during the 2016 primaries. He called the former reality TV star a “conman” seeking to “defraud” the Republican Party.

Marco Rubio is also expected to move from Florida if he is chosen. The 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution does not allow presidential and vice presidential candidates from the same party to live in the same state.

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Those who bring new blood

To At 78, Donald Trump might be tempted to rejuvenate the Republican ticket a bit by choosing J.D. Vanceas running mate. At 39, the young senator from Ohio and former venture capitalist quickly found his place in Washington by posing as a defender of Donald Trump's “Make America Great Again (MAGA)”, particularly on issues immigration, trade and foreign policy, and this, with the energy of the “millennial” generation to which he belongs and which the ex-president will also need to regain his seat in the Oval Office.

Brought to the national stage by the publication in 2016 of the family story, Hillbilly Elegy, indirectly recounting the emergence of Trumpism in rural counties across the country, J.-D. Vance has become close to the ex-president's son, Donald Trump Jr. and a key figure in the political events of the American radical right. An improbable fate for the man who in 2016 called Trump a “total fraud,” a “moral disaster” and “America’s Hitler.”

At 45 , Byron Donalds, representative of Florida in Washington, also has all the potential to bring closer to the Republican presidential project a younger clientele and particularly targeted in his case: the young African-American man that Donald Trump is seeking to court in order to reduce the support of Joe Biden and the Democrats on this flank.

Byron Donalds who entered politics to support the emergence of the Tea Party, a political movement conservative who paved the way for Trumpism, has for years promoted conservatism which also exists within the African-American community. Just like Marco Rubio, however, he will have to leave Florida and take up residence elsewhere for his candidacy to be valid.

Those who attract lost voters

Another asset of Donald Trump, Tim Scott, the only African-American Republican in the Senate, where he represents South Carolina. The latter largely expressed his loyalty to the ex-president by supporting the populist's candidacy during the primaries in his state, against that of Nikki Haley, his compatriot, ex-governor and ex-ambassador of the United States. at the UN.

Faithful among the faithful, Tim Scott launched at the beginning of June, and with a budget of 14 million, a vast campaign aimed at convincing voters from minority groups to vote for Donald Trump in seven of the key states where the next presidency will be decided. He also reinforces the religious conservative vote by presenting himself for years first as a “biblical leader” and not as a “republican and conservative leader”. “I am a Christian first and foremost,” he said in 2020. “And that is the thing I choose to be above anything else. »

The candidacy of Elise Stefanik, the only woman on the short list of vice-presidential contenders, has no shortage of attractions for Donald Trump. The New York representative to Washington, 39, has the energy of her youth. She also comes from the moderate Republican ranks, having been an assistant to former Speaker of the House of Representatives Paul Ryan and having worked within the Domestic Policy Council under George W. Bush. She has since embraced the radicalism and conspiracies fueled by Trump's MAGA movement, but could still offer Donald Trump the opportunity to reconnect with an electorate that the populist has partly lost: educated, moderate, conservative women from the suburbs. and who in 2020 chose “the lesser of two evils”, moving closer to Joe Biden.

Other option: Ben Carson. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in Donald Trump's government, he managed to develop a very strong bond with the ex-president, which could open the door to the Republican ticket for next November's election. In exchange, the former neurosurgeon, who speaks without ever taking up too much space, could capture the attention of the African-American electorate and other minorities in the country who usually stay far from the polls or far from the Republican camp. , particularly when that camp descends into racist rhetoric or approaches white supremacist groups.

At 72, Ben Carson has the disadvantage of his age, however, but the advantage of relative discretion which would thus leave plenty of room for the former reality TV star, during the campaign and, in the event of victory, afterwards.