Donald Trump: poll results, program… A new momentum close to the vote ?

If Donald Trump is given behind Kamala Harris in the voting intentions at the national level, he is clearly progressing in the swing states, these “undecided” States which will decide the outcome of the American presidential election.

The American presidential election will take place on November 5, and with less than a month to go before the election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in voting intentions. The Republican is slightly behind nationally according to the political analysis site 538, from the American media ABC News, with 46% of potential votes against 48.4% for his competitor. According to the aggregator 270towins, Donald Trump is expected to à 46.9%, against 49.3% for Kamala Harris.

But it is more interesting to look at the “swing states”, those states whose election results vary depending on the polls, oscillating between the right and the left over the years. They are called pivot states, which will decide the outcome of the vote. And for a good week now, the Republican candidate has made a remarkable comeback in these famous swing states. He leads in four of them (out of seven): Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina and Michigan, while his Democratic rival would only win in the next two, Wisconsin and Nevada, with Pennsylvania showing a perfect tie as of October 10.

In recent weeks, Donald Trump has been leading a campaign composed of aggressive speeches making America the priority in these states, which are, for the most part, part of the Midwest. To convince Republican voters who are committed to his cause, but also voters who are still undecided, the Republican candidate for the White House is banking on a program that is clearly identified with the American right on the economic front or on the subject of immigration. He promised to work to relocate businesses and industries to the United States at a rally in Georgia: “For years, we've watched our jobs get stolen by other countries. But now we're going to take their jobs and bring them back to America, where they belong.” he declared. 

Donald Trump neck and neck with Kamala Harris in the polls

While national polls give the Democrats a slight advantage of 2.4 points, the vote will be decided at the state level, particularly around 7 to 8 states that change political color from one election to the next: the swing states. The American presidential election is an indirect vote: electors vote for representatives – the electors – whose number depends on the density of population of each state (the more populated a territory is, the more electors there are) and these electors elect the presidents of the United States of America. When a state is won by one side, all its electors are attributed to a single side, Republican or Democrat, and therefore to a single candidate. It is this number of electors that counts to be elected. You need to win at least 270.  

Donald Trump leads four of the seven swing states as of October 10, 2024, according to the polling compilation conducted by 270tonwins: Georgia (47.8% vs. 47.2% for Kamala Harris), Arizona with a two-point lead (49.2% vs. 47.4%), North Carolina (48.6% vs. 47.4%) and Michigan (47.6% vs. 47.4%). One state has a tie perfect, it is Pennsylvania: the two candidates are credited with 48.1% of voting intentions less than a month before the election.

Kamala Harris is only ahead by 0.4 to 0.8 points in the last two swing states and has lost a lot of ground in these key areas in a week. The battle is therefore shaping up to be very close between the two candidates. Other territories are being watched closely, as high stakes, such as Florida, which has 30 electorates and in which Donald Trump is in the lead with 50% of voting intentions, compared to 45% for his Democratic rival.

Economy: lower taxes and development of cryptocurrencies

On September 5, in New York, Donald Trump said he wanted to end “communism.” “Send comrade Harris home to California.” A foretaste of his program, which is to say the least cash and uncompromising. On the economic front, the real estate magnate is considering customs duties of “more than 10%” on all imports, to finance a “large tax cut for the middle class, the upper class, the lower class, the business class,” he explains. At the same time, he intends to make the United States “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.” Elon Musk would then be entrusted with a complete audit of the American administration. “Elon, because he is not very busy, has agreed to lead this commission to “completely eliminate fraud and unnecessary spending in six months (…) This will save trillions of dollars.” In addition, relations with China could slightly harden. Donald Trump wants to revoke the “most favored nation” clause granted to China.

Impact on France and the European Union

Since the US Trade Act of 1974, the US president has had the power to impose quotas and tariffs up to 15% higher for 150 days on countries that have significant surpluses in their balance of payments with the US. He could therefore go further than the 10% announced so far. Enough to cause a real economic and trade war between the US and the EU. However, this scenario still appears unlikely, particularly because the EU remains the United States' largest trading partner. This puts the EU in a relatively strong position to discuss with Donald Trump and avoid overly drastic measures from the billionaire. Since the European Union enjoys a very high trade surplus with the United States, it should be able to accept some compromises, even if it means losing a little money, while maintaining at least courteous trade relations with the United States. Donald Trump could instead ask European countries, as has already been mentioned in some of his campaign speeches, for a greater contribution to NATO.

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Environment: end of regulations and oil in abundance

Regarding the environment, the former president of the United States could be tempted to lift all possible regulations if he were to gain access to the White House. “For each new regulation, we will eliminate at least 10 old laws, and frankly we will have no trouble doing it,” he assured at the beginning of September. “I will quickly put an end to the great green scam,” he has already said. promised in the event of a second term. “We are going to drill (for oil) like crazy” he announced to his supporters, in order to “very quickly lower energy prices”. He notably promised to lower energy costs “by half” for Americans.

Immigration: “the largest deportation operation” of migrants

On the subject of immigration, Donald Trump's program has the merit of being clear, he wants to launch “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants as soon as he is elected if he were to join the White House. The American billionaire also plans to “use the army” to achieve his ends in order to expel migrants, then to open new detention camps. The automatic right of the soil will also be canceled in the event of the election of Donald Trump, "for children born to migrants in an irregular situation". Joe Biden's predecessor recently accused migrants of “poisoning the blood of the country”. 

Abortion: Trump cultivates ambiguity

During the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a heated exchange took place on the issue of abortion. Kamala Harris notably criticized the former president of the United States for having appointed three conservative judges to the Supreme Court, in order to end the federal guarantee for voluntary termination of pregnancy in 2022. “I warned that we were going to hear a tissue of lies,” she said. A response to Donald Trump's claim that babies are being executed after birth in the United States. “Nowhere in America is a woman going to go to term to seek an abortion. “That never happens. It's insulting to the women of America,” she continued. Donald Trump believes he has “done the country a huge service by overturning the right to abortion decision.” IVG to the States themselves.

On the other hand, Donald Trump maintains the vagueness concerning the future of abortions in the country. He does not position himself on the line of the American religious right, according to which it would be necessary to promise an outright ban on abortion throughout the country thanks to a federal law. “You have to follow your “heart and conscience” on this issue, but do not forget that you also have to win elections,” he declared. According to Franceinfo, the Republican is trying to present himself as a defender of “reproductive rights”, an adjustment compared to his previous term. His wife, Melania Trump, speaks out in favor of women's autonomy to decide over their bodies, in a memoir to be published on October 8.

Discreet on Gaza, Trump would resolve the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours”

If elected, Donald Trump would resolve the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours.” At least, that's what the main interested party claims. The problem is that the former US president has never really explained how he could even calm the conflicts in Ukraine. “I have a very specific plan to stop Ukraine and Russia. And I have a certain idea – maybe not a plan, but an idea – for China,” he said in an interview. As with abortion, Donald Trump remains vague. Regarding the clashes in Gaza, he was a fervent defender of Israel during the Hamas attacks in October 2023. Since then, he has not really wanted to get involved on the subject, saying he is not “exactly sure how to worship the way” which Israel is conducting its offensive in Gaza. Should we understand that the unconditional aid of the USA towards Israel would be called into question in the event of Donald Trump's arrival at the White House ? This is an option.

Donald Trump's campaign brings its share of false information – or fake news – and while some of it strengthens his electorate, most of it harms him with other voters. Virulent towards his rival and not failing to launch personal attacks, the billionaire accused Kamala Harris of having “become black” for electoral reasons, during an exchange with African-American journalists in Chicago at the end of July. The Democratic candidate is also attacked on her abilities to govern and represent the United States internationally since Donald Trump estimated in an interview with the conservative Fox News channel that foreign leaders would “walk all over her” if she came to power.

The fake news relayed by Donald Trump does not only target his competitor, it also concerns the Democratic camp accused of “executing babies” when discussing abortion during the debate with Kamala Harris on September 10. “They support the execution of babies after they are born – well execution and not abortion because the baby is born,” he wrongly claimed. Some migrant communities have also been targeted with the famous line about residents and migrants in Springfield, a small town in Ohio: “The people who came. They eat the cats. They eat… They eat the pets of people who live there.” Information denied by local authorities and the journalist mediator during the debate.