Donald Trump: polls, program… The Republican in the race to win

Slightly behind in the national polls, Donald Trump is making a strong comeback in the swing states, these undecided states that will decide the vote.

The American presidential election will take place on November 5, and with less than a month to go before the election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in voting intentions. The Republican is slightly behind at the national level according to the political analysis site 538, from the American media ABC News, with 46% of potential votes against 48.4% for his competitor. According to the aggregator 270towins, Donald Trump is given 46.9%, against 49.3% for Kamala Harris.

But it is more interesting to look at the “swing states”, those states whose election results vary depending on the polls, oscillating between the right and the left over the years. They are called pivot states, which will decide the outcome of the vote. And in recent days, the Republican candidate has made a remarkable comeback in these famous swing states. To convince Republican voters who are committed to his cause, but also the still undecided voters, the Republican candidate for the White House is banking on a program clearly identified with the American right on the economic level or on the subject of immigration. He has thus promised to work towards the relocation of companies and industries to the United States and to launch “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants in history.

Donald Trump in the polls

While national polls give the Democrat a slight advantage of two to three points, the vote will be decided at the state level, particularly around seven states that change political color from one election to the next: the swing states. Donald Trump comes out on top in four of the seven swing states the date of October 10, 2024 according to the compilation of polls carried out by 270tonwins. Kamala Harris only has a lead of between 0.4 and 0.8 points in the last two swing states and has lost a lot of ground in these key areas in a week. The two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania. The battle thus promises to be very close between the two candidates. Other territories are being watched closely, because high stakes, such as Florida, which has 30 electorates and in which Donald Trump is in the lead with 50% of voting intentions, compared to 45% for his Democratic rival.

Donald Trump's program

Economy: lower taxes and development of cryptocurrencies

On September 5, in New York, Donald Trump said he wanted to end “communism.” “Send comrade Harris home to California.” A foretaste of his program, which is, to say the least, cash-based and uncompromising. On the economic front, the real estate magnate is considering customs duties of “more than 10%” on all imports, to finance a “large tax cut for the middle class, the upper class, the lower class, the business class,” he explains. At the same time, he intends to make the United States “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies”.

International: what impact on France and the European Union ?

Since the US Trade Act of 1974, the US president has had the power to impose quotas and tariffs up to 15% higher for 150 days on countries that have significant surpluses in their balance of payments with the US. He could therefore go further than the 10% announced so far. Enough to cause a real economic and trade war between the US and the EU. However, this scenario still appears unlikely, particularly since the EU remains the United States' leading trading partner.

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Environment: end of regulations and oil in abundance

Regarding the environment, the former president of the United States could be tempted to lift all possible regulations if he were to gain access to the White House. “For each new regulation, we will eliminate at least 10 old laws, and frankly we will have no trouble doing it,” he assured at the beginning of September. “I will quickly put an end to the great green scam,” he has already said. promised in the event of a second term. “We are going to drill (for oil) like crazy” he announced to his supporters, in order to “very quickly lower energy prices”.

Immigration: “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants

On the subject of immigration, Donald Trump's program has the merit of being clear, he wants to launch “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants as soon as he is elected if he were to join the White House. The American billionaire also plans to “use the army” to achieve his ends in order to expel migrants, then to open new detention camps. The automatic right of the soil will also be canceled in the event of the election of Donald Trump, "for children born to migrants in irregular situations".

Abortion: Trump cultivates ambiguity

Donald Trump is keeping the future of abortions in the country unclear. He is not taking the line of the American religious right, according to which it would be necessary to promise an outright ban on abortion throughout the country through a federal law. “You have to follow your conscience on this issue, but don't forget that you also have to win elections,” he declared. According to Franceinfo, the Republican is trying to present himself as a defender of “reproductive rights”, an adjustment compared to his previous term. 

Latest campaign news

A third assassination attempt against Trump foiled ?

Monday October 14, 2024.A man was arrested outside a Donald Trump rally on Saturday, October 12, in Coachella, California, in possession of several illegally held weapons. The Riverside County Sheriff's Department says the individual allegedly said he wanted to “kill the president.” The man was also in possession of a handgun and a high-capacity magazine. according to sheriff's officials after the LA Times. He was released a few hours later on $5,000 bail.

The man arrested is reportedly named Vem Miller, a 49-year-old resident of Las Vegas. He is reportedly registered as a Republican and is running for the 2022 Nevada assembly election according to USA Today. Arriving at the rally, the latter introduced himself as a journalist. Several passports were found on him, “under different names,” the sheriff said during a press conference. His vehicle was unregistered and had a false license plate. The main suspect says he is a “Trump supporter” 100%” and that he traveled “with his firearms in the back of his pickup truck at all times” to Fox News.

Vem Miller is scheduled to appear in court on January 2, 2025, on charges of “possession of a loaded firearm” and “possession of a magazine with high capacity”. The arrest "had no impact on the safety of former President Trump or the event attendees," sheriff's officials finally indicated.