Donald Trump: Polls Tighten, Can He Lose US Election ?

&Two months before the pre-election American presidential election: Donald Trump loses ground to Kamala Harris in the polls, as well as in some Swing States, essential in the race for the White House.

Republican candidate Donald Trump intends to secure a second term in the White House, something he failed to do in 2020. But for once, the task will be far from simple against Kamala Harris, the replacement for current US President Joe Biden, who withdrew from the presidential race. In the polls, the gap between the two candidates is narrowing, so much so that it is extremely difficult to separate them two months before the presidential election. According to the latest polls, Donald Trump has won 48% of the vote, compared to 47% for the vice-president. While the real estate tycoon had distanced himself from the Democratic camp after the assassination attempt on him on July 13th, using the image of the martyr, it would seem that the situation is turning around.

Close results in the Swing States

The two candidates for the American presidential election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, are neck and neck in the race for the White House. The latest polls show the Republican with 48% of favorable votes, against 47% for the Democrat. But these national figures are less telling than the trends in each state. The American presidential election is an indirect vote: American voters vote and elect electors who are more or less numerous depending on the population rate of each state (the more inhabitants there are, the more electors there are) and the latter vote for a presidential candidate. When a state is won by the Republicans or the Democrats, all its seats are allocated to one and the same candidate, and it is this number of seats that counts to be elected. You have to win at least 270.

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While some states historically and consistently vote for the same camp, others called “Swing states” vary from election to election and often determine the outcome of the election: these are Texas (38 electors), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (6). These are the states that have a lot of electors that must be won as a priority. And for now, according to the 270towin compilation, on September 9, 2024, Kamala Harris comes out on top in Michigan, while Pennsylvania or Georgia show a perfect equality between the two candidates. Donald Trump remains ahead in Texas (50% against 45%), Florida (49% against 44%) or North Carolina (48% against 47%).

Confusing remarks that could have worked against Donald Trump this summer

In an interview with the conservative Fox News channel, Donald Trump did not hesitate to question Kamala Harris's skills, indicating that her foreign counterparts would “walk all over her” if she came to power. On Wednesday, July 31, he accused her of “having become black” for electoral reasons, during an exchange with African-American journalists in Chicago. “She was Indian at heart and all of a sudden she changed and she became a black person,” he said. Words that were “divisive and disrespectful” were used reply Kamala Harris.

As a reminder, born to a Jamaican father and an Indian mother, Kamala Harris is the first black woman and woman of South Asian origin to aim for the presidency of the United States of America. She defines herself as a “black woman”. A few days earlier, on July 26, Donald Trump had already found himself under fire. In front of conservative Christians, he had declared that “in four years, you won't have to vote anymore. We'll have solved the problem so well that you won't have to vote anymore.”