Donald Trump: program, poll results… A complicated campaign

The latest polls show Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck. On the program side, the American billionaire emphasizes immigration control, oil and cryptocurrencies.

If Republican Donald Trump intends to run for a second term in the White House, the task should be difficult given the competition imposed on him by Kamala Harris. In the latest polls, the two candidates are neck and neck. According to 270towin, at the national level, the real estate mogul has won 47.5% of the vote, while the Democrat has won 48.38% of the vote. The two candidates are neck and neck, and the election should be decided, as is often the case, based on the results in the “Swing States”. These undecided states, for which the political color can vary from one election to another. While Donald Trump had distanced Kamala Harris after the attempted assassination targeting her on July 13, using the image of the martyr, it would seem that the situation is turning around. To try to strengthen his base, and convince an uncertain electorate, Donald Trump can rely on a program that is both cash, but some points of which remain ambiguous, particularly concerning abortion and the role of the United States in Ukraine and elsewhere. Gaza. On immigration, there is no doubt that Donald Trump remains faithful to his line: he intends to launch “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants.

What program for Donald Trump ?

Economy: lower taxes and development of cryptocurrencies

On September 5, in New York, Donald Trump said he wanted to end “communism.” “Send comrade Harris home to California.” A foretaste of his program, which is, to say the least, cash-based and uncompromising. On the economic front, the real estate magnate is considering customs duties of “more than 10%” on all imports, to finance a “large tax cut for the middle class, the upper class, the lower class, the business class,” he explains. At the same time, he intends to make the United States “the world capital of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.” Elon Musk would then be entrusted with a complete audit of the American administration. “Elon, because he is not very busy, has agreed to lead this commission to “completely eliminate fraud and unnecessary spending in six months (…) This will save trillions of dollars.” In addition, relations with China could slightly harden. Donald Trump wants to revoke the “most favored nation” clause, granted to the United States. China.

Impact on France and the European Union

Since the US Trade Act of 1974, the US president has had the power to impose quotas and tariffs up to 15% higher for 150 days on countries that have significant surpluses in their balance of payments with the US. He could therefore go further than the 10% announced so far. Enough to cause a real economic and trade war between the US and the EU. However, this scenario still appears unlikely, particularly because the EU remains the United States' largest trading partner. This puts the EU in a relatively strong position to discuss with Donald Trump and avoid overly drastic measures from the billionaire. Since the European Union enjoys a very high trade surplus with the United States, it should be able to accept some compromises, even if it means losing a little money, while maintaining at least courteous trade relations with the United States. Donald Trump could instead ask European countries, as has already been mentioned in some of his campaign speeches, for a greater contribution to NATO.

Environment: end of regulations and oil in abundance

Regarding the environment, the former president of the United States could be tempted to lift all possible regulations if he were to gain access to the White House. “For each new regulation, we will eliminate at least 10 old laws, and frankly we will have no trouble doing it,” he assured at the beginning of September. “I will quickly put an end to the great green scam,” he has already said. promised in the event of a second term. “We are going to drill (for oil) like crazy” he announced to his supporters, in order to “very quickly lower energy prices”. He notably promised to lower energy costs “by half” for Americans.

Immigration: “the largest deportation operation” of migrants

On the subject of immigration, Donald Trump's program has the merit of being clear, he wants to launch “the largest expulsion operation” of migrants as soon as he is elected if he were to join the White House. The American billionaire also plans to “use the army” to achieve his ends in order to expel migrants, then to open new detention camps. The automatic right of the soil will also be canceled in the event of the election of Donald Trump, "for children born to migrants in an irregular situation". Joe Biden's predecessor recently accused migrants of “poisoning the blood of the country”. 

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Abortion: Trump cultivates ambiguity

During the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a heated exchange took place on the issue of abortion. Kamala Harris notably criticized the former president of the United States for having appointed three conservative judges to the Supreme Court, in order to end the federal guarantee for voluntary termination of pregnancy in 2022. “I warned that we were going to hear a tissue of lies,” she said. A response to Donald Trump's claim that babies are being executed after birth in the United States. “Nowhere in America is a woman going to go to term to seek an abortion. “That never happens. It's insulting to the women of America,” she continued. Donald Trump believes he has “done the country a huge service by overturning the right to abortion decision.” IVG to the States themselves.

On the other hand, Donald Trump maintains the vagueness concerning the future of abortions in the country. He does not position himself on the line of the American religious right, according to which it would be necessary to promise a pure and simple ban on abortion throughout the country thanks to a federal law. “You have to follow your soul and conscience on this issue, but don't forget that you also have to win elections,” he said. 

Discreet on Gaza, Trump would settle the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours"

If elected, Donald Trump would resolve the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours.” At least, that's what the main interested party claims. The problem is that the former US president has never really explained how he could even calm the conflicts in Ukraine. “I have a very specific plan to stop Ukraine and Russia. And I have a certain idea – maybe not a plan, but an idea – for China,” he said in an interview. As with abortion, Donald Trump remains vague. Regarding the clashes in Gaza, he was a fervent defender of Israel during the Hamas attacks in October 2023. Since then, he has not really wanted to get involved on the subject, saying he is not “exactly sure how to worship the way” which Israel is conducting its offensive in Gaza. Should we understand that the unconditional aid of the USA towards Israel would be called into question in the event of Donald Trump's arrival in the White House ? It's an option.

Tight results in the Swing States

The two candidates for the American presidential election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, are neck and neck in the race for the White House. The latest polls show the Republican with 47.5% of favorable votes, against 48.38% for the Democrat. But these national figures are less telling than the trends in each state. The American presidential election is an indirect vote: American voters vote and elect electors who are more or less numerous depending on the population rate of each state (the more inhabitants there are, the more electors there are) and the latter vote for a presidential candidate. When a state is won by the Republicans or the Democrats, all its seats are allocated to one and the same candidate, and it is this number of seats that counts to be elected. You have to win at least 270.

While some states historically and consistently vote for the same camp, others called “Swing states” vary from election to election and often determine the outcome of the election: these are Texas (38 electors), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Iowa (6). These are the states that have a lot of electors that must be won as a priority. And for now, according to the 270towin compilation, on September 9, 2024, Kamala Harris comes out on top in Michigan, while Pennsylvania or Georgia show a perfect equality between the two candidates. Donald Trump remains ahead in Texas (50% against 45%), Florida (49% against 44%) or North Carolina (48% against 47%).

Confusing remarks that could have worked against Donald Trump this summer

In an interview with the conservative Fox News channel, Donald Trump did not hesitate to question Kamala Harris's skills, indicating that her foreign counterparts would “walk all over her” if she came to power. On Wednesday, July 31, he accused her of “having become black” for electoral reasons, during an exchange with African-American journalists in Chicago. “She was Indian at heart and all of a sudden she changed and she became a black person,” he said. Words that were “divisive and disrespectful” were used reply Kamala Harris.

As a reminder, born to a Jamaican father and an Indian mother, Kamala Harris is the first black woman and woman of South Asian origin to aim for the presidency of the United States of America. She defines herself as a “black woman”. A few days earlier, on July 26, Donald Trump had already found himself under fire. In front of conservative Christians, he had declared that “in four years, you won't have to vote anymore. We'll have solved the problem so well that you won't have to vote anymore.”