Donald Trump re-elected president: what consequences for France, Ukraine and Europe ?

Donald Trump will be the 47th me president of the United States, an announcement which raises various fears in Europe and in France.

Donald Trump has been declared the winner of the American election by the Associated Press agency and becomes the 47th president of the United States. Emmanuel Macron welcomed his counterpart's victory over X: “Congratulations President Donald Trump. Ready to work together as we have been able to do for four years. With your convictions and with mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity”.

The billionaire's return will not be without consequences for France and Europe. The French president's second tweet clearly shows that he is already anticipating tensions: “I have just spoken with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.”We will work towards a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context. By cooperating with the United States of America and defending our interests and values.

This victory worries Europe on several levels. First of all, from the point of view of international politics, the American president has never hidden his hostility towards the way NATO is run. He has often put pressure on European countries, accusing them of not investing enough in their military defence. The contribution of the United States is one of the most important in NATO: 16.34% in 2024. A withdrawal, even partial, of the Americans from the Atlantic organization could also encourage other powers, such as Russia or China, to be more aggressive on the continent.

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Another fear: the reduction of American aid to Ukraine, playing in Vladimir Putin's favor. Without the military and financial means of the United States, Volodymyr Zelensky could be forced to negotiate with Russia quickly, on very unsatisfactory conditions, and without the principle of border sovereignty being firmly defended. Donald Trump could also seek to negotiate a peace agreement with Russia, to the detriment of Ukraine. He had, in fact, promised to “settle in 24 hours” the conflict, if elected, praising his good relations with Vladimir Putin.

The European economy in danger ?

On the economic front, trade tensions between Europe and the United States could worsen with the emergence of new taxes on European imports. During his campaign, Donald Trump stated his desire to impose customs surcharges of 10 to 20% on all products imported into the United States, a significant increase given the 3.3% currently applied on average across the Atlantic. Thierry Breton, former European Commissioner for the European Market interior, had predicted on BFMTV a "deadly"crisis for Europe", in the event of Donald Trump's return. 

“Trump's election is not good news for Europe. It means an increase in protectionism, with a considerable increase in customs duties,” explained Christian de Boissieu, professor of economics at the University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, to the Figaro. François Hollande had even assured on BFMTV that in the event of Trump's election, there would be in France “an increase in unemployment, lower growth and perhaps even higher inflation, because there will be a very large American budget deficit and probably a monetary policy that will accompany it, because the American deficit has to be financed”.

Last important part: that of ecology. Donald Trump could decide to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, towards which he has always been hostile. Donald Trump's climate-sceptic positions could “break any effort to coordinate around energy and climate policy issues, and also break efforts to reduce our emissions and to control climate change together”, warned Sébastien Jean, associate director at the French Institute of International Relations, on Franceinfo. In his program, Donald Trump wants, on the contrary, to favor oil drilling, to fill stocks, and the use of fossil fuels.