Donald Trump's campaign on alert

Photo: Evan Vucci Associated Press Republican candidate Donald Trump is expected to focus again on immigration in the coming weeks, especially since Vice-President Kamale Harris has been the spokesperson for the Biden government on the issue.

Olivier Du Ruisseau

Published at 6:20 p.m.

• United States

The withdrawal of Joe Biden's candidacy for the presidential election has muddied the waters of Donald Trump's campaign. According to many experts and sources close to Mr. Trump, he would have preferred that his Democratic rival remained in the race, he who was floundering in the polls and whose wavering health contrasted with the new miraculous image of the former Republican president.

“The Republicans are always ready to stand up, underlines Charles-Philippe David, full professor of political science and founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in strategic and diplomatic studies from UQAM. But the situation has just changed. We are entering unknown territory. »

Everything nevertheless indicates that Kamala Harris will be nominated as candidate by the Democratic Party in place of Joe Biden. The latter first announced on Sunday evening that he would support the candidacy of his vice-president. Shortly after, the main interested party declared in a press release that she intended to “win the Democratic nomination” and “beat Trump”.

Her candidacy could therefore be made official in the coming weeks, even before the Democratic convention, which is scheduled to take place from August 19 to 22 in Chicago. “Democrats have everything to gain from electing him as soon as possible, to avoid an open convention,” says Mr. David. This would contrast with the image of unity that emerged from the Republican convention last week.

No surprise either

Since Joe Biden's disastrous performance in the June 27 debate, Mr. Trump and his team had been dialing down their criticism of the president, hoping he would stay in the race until the party officially nominated him and that it would be too late to replace him without encountering major legal obstacles.

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Although Mr. Biden's announcement puts Republicans on alert, they had already anticipated such a turnaround. On Saturday, the New York Times revealed that Mr. Trump's campaign had prepared ads focusing on Ms. Harris's record, both as vice president and as a prosecutor in California, according to two internal sources.

“Donald Trump is not completely taken by surprise,” says Charles-Philippe David. That said, he knew he was going to beat Joe Biden, the polls were behind him. But does he have the same confidence that he can beat Kamala Harris ? Surely not, but you shouldn't think he's impressionable either. »

Immigration

The Republican candidate should still focus on immigration in the coming weeks, especially since the vice-president was the spokesperson for the Biden government on the issue.

Sunday evening, the eldest son of M . Trump, Donald Trump Jr., attacked her over this on he declared.

Kamala Harris owns the entire leftwing policy record of Joe Biden. The only difference is that she is even more liberal and less competent than Joe, which is really saying something. She was put in charge of the border and we saw the worst invasion of illegals in our history!!!

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) July 21, 2024

“On this issue, Ms. Harris did not dazzle with her proposals and her talent,” affirms Charles-Philippe David. She will have a lot of work to do to defend her record. On the other hand, it is one of Donald Trump's main campaign themes. He will return to the charge on this subject and continue to portray Democrats as radicals responsible for all the ills of American society. »

Abortion and civil rights

Kamala Harris could, however, give retaliate against Donald Trump regarding the right to abortion and civil rights, observes the political scientist.

“She has already been particularly eloquent and combative on the issue of abortion,” he says. If, in addition, she names a female running mate, like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and for the first time two women run together, the debates on the subject could turn in their favor. »

What's more, in the current context where the voting intentions of African-Americans, Latin Americans and young people, traditionally Democrats, are gradually slipping into the camp Opponent, Ms. Harris's Jamaican and Indian origins could work for her, according to the professor.

“Donald Trump may have more work to do to retain these voters,” Mr. David continues. Uncertainties still remain, and Kamala Harris has not been heard enough so far. She may still not be elected by her party. And while we know that Democrats will continue to defend Mr. Biden's proudly centrist record, it remains to be seen how much further to the left the party might move, and how that would in turn influence Republican rhetoric. »