Plus de population à venir sur le littoral, montée des eaux, canicules, sécheresse à venir. Midi Libre – SYLVIE CAMBON
As part of the "Blue Plan", the United Nations Environment Programme, a hundred researchers have developed the future of the Mediterranean basin in 2050, which will be more affected than the others by climate change. They have developed six scenarios, some very pessimistic with climate disasters, others more resilient if populations and governments become aware.
Twenty years after its last assessment, the association “Blue Plan”, mandated by the United Nations Environment Programme, has just presented its prospective report “Med 2050”, and it proposes six future scenarios, some alarming, others more nuanced. They were developed by a hundred researchers from twenty countries who collaborated in the IPCC manner.
“It takes into account the entire geographical and geopolitical region and focuses on the entire area, land and sea”, specifies Guillaume Sainteny, the president of the Blue Plan, even if the evolution of the sea is at the center of the discussions.
Seven points were taken into account: the global context, demography, the economy, the environment, science, technology and governance to assess what may happen for the period 2030-2050.
The Mediterranean is warming 20% more than elsewhere
“With these documented components of their strong and weak signs, combined, we have this important collective work” greets Montpellier resident Denis Lacroix, marine science consultant and secretary general of Plan Bleu.
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000The observation, first of all, is fourfold: “the Mediterranean is, after the Arctic, the region of the world that is warming the fastest, 20% more than elsewhere”, recalls Jacques Theys, vice-president of Plan Bleu and co-author of the report. “It concentrates 60% of the water-poor population and it is also the sea most polluted by plastics and the most overexploited in terms of fishing.”
By 2050, a 2.3° increase in temperatures
Consequence: the increase in temperatures in the Mediterranean should exceed 2°C by 2040 to reach 2.3 °C in 2050, which was predicted for the end of the century according to the report…. And the corollaries: droughts, floods, terrestrial but also marine heat waves“and a rise in sea level, of the order of 40 cm, which will pose problems for the protection of coasts and populations in the coming decades.”
Not forgetting the crucial problem of access to water for part of the population. It is also recalled that the regional population will grow by 20 to 30% to reach between 630 and 690 million inhabitants in 2050 compared to 520 million today, with a concentration on the coast that will accelerate.
Environmental disasters or global reaction
This scene set, the experts have therefore outlined six possibilities. The first scenario, “the most likely” for President Guillaume Sainteny, is none other than “the continuation of current trends”: “business as usual”.
The basin would be paralyzed by blockages and the“procrastination of decision-makers”, by choice or lack of awareness of the real issues. Result: degradation of ecosystems, fragmentation of societies, conflicts over access to resources, etc. All combined with pragmatic measures to save essential priorities (water, energy).
Some of the other scenarios, which are pessimistic, suggest a succession of crises, shocks and forced adaptations, environmental disasters (heat waves, mega fires, floods), strong nationalist tensions but also a lot of resilience.
“Unless there are major shifts, the situation will be much worse in 2050 than today
Another is growth at all costs where “the economy is the central objective of development” in all areas and in a Mediterranean shattered.
The other three hypotheses are more optimistic: a Euro-Mediterranean partnership for a successful “blue-green” transition; another model of sustainable development specifically Mediterranean; or even a global reaction after the sea has deteriorated so rapidly that it must be protected and made “a vast laboratory for the collective management of a common good” says the report.
Which warns in conclusion: “Unless there are major changes, the Mediterranean will be in a much more alarming situation by 2050 than it is today” while recalling that there is room for maneuver.
For the specialist on the issue Denis Lacroix, “there are serious problems in the Mediterranean, once the diagnosis has been made, we must understand the dynamics and the treat”, the Héraultais calling himself “tactical pessimist” in the short term, but “optimistic in strategy” for the long term.
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