Élisabeth Borne: Prime Minister for how much longer?

ELISABETH BORNE. The Prime Minister was maintained in its functions, but is this extension envisaged? in the long term? Between political difficulties and disagreements with Emmanuel Macron, Elisabeth Borne may remain at home for a long time. Matignon.

[Put to; day July 19, 2023 4:51 p.m.] Elisabeth Borne remains well at home Matignon, but will his stay on rue de Varenne last much longer? The retention of the Prime Minister, announced through a press release on July 17, did not respect the order the usual codes and seems to be a choice of reason suffered more than a will. Emmanuel Macron to keep the sixty-year-old at home the head of government. The President of the Republic did not even use the traditional formula and "renew his confidence" in Elisabeth Borne by letting her resign and then renaming her to Matignon.

The extension of Elisabeth Borne as Prime Minister is therefore perplexing. Is it envisaged? for a few months? A year? Some within the majority see in Emmanuel Macron's decision the opportunity to be able to use the polytechnician as a fuse during the next political crisis. Others believe that the head of government owes her continued existence to her. the absence of a convincing successor. In either case, Elisabeth Borne's stay in Paris was a success. Matignon seems to be thought of à short term.

The fact remains that after a year of turbulent mandate, and 17 motions of censure filed against her, the Prime Minister is holding the line and does not seem decided to move forward. leave. Will she be able to hold the helm until the end of the mandate? The reshuffle is an opportunity to establish her legitimacy. on the government, but the omnipresence of Emmanuel Macron still limits Matignon's political movements. Enough to set the tone for the coming months.

Why did Emmanuel Macron maintain Elisabeth Borne? Matignon?

Maintaining the Prime Minister must ensure "stability" and "substantive work" of the executive after the “hundred-day objective” was achieved. held and calm returned" said the Elysée, Monday July 17. A formulation which could reflect the state of relations between Elisabeth Borne and Emmanuel Macron: they do not agree on the political line, but for lack of anything better they are trying to stay the course.

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< p>Emmanuel Macron apparently had no other satisfactory options for extending the mandate of his Prime Minister. Thanking her could have been misinterpreted; after the government's success in restore order following the riots sparked by Nahel's death. This could have been seen as a sanction in the face of violence. efficient work. Especially, after having prospected for months at a time looking for a successor, the head of state could not find anything. no profile capable of doing better: bringing together a majority absolute to the Assembly is an impossible task and the best candidates seem too political. "The president wants a collaborator, like he had one with Castex. He doesn't want someone who thinks differently from him. and he also doesn't want someone who could eclipse him or emancipate himself, analyzes a member of the majority. at the microphone offranceinfo.

Bad time to replace the Prime Minister?

Elisabeth Borne could also be worth keeping rue de Varenne on the calendar. After a turbulent year, in a still sensitive context and just before the summer break, the time was not conducive to change at any time. Matignon. The appointment of a new Prime Minister would not have been unanimous. in "a moment whereù the French want to preserve landmarks" according to an advisor cited by Le Monde.

Nor did such a change make political sense at all. according to a minister who, as early as June, was complaining about franceinfo: "Changing Prime Ministers is like burning a bullet". However, the start of the school year could be difficult, shaking at times. the government again and precipitate the fall of the tenant of Matignon. "It wouldn't have been possible. a good calculation to separate from Borne. The autumn will be difficult with a lot of 49.3 for the budget, and the risk of motions of censure" anticipates a deputy Renaissance. The chosen one goes as far as imagine the overthrow of the executive: "If the government must be overthrown, it will be better that it be her rather than a freshly appointed Prime Minister." The replacement of Elisabeth Borne could therefore be a card that Emmanuel Macron keeps up his sleeve. Someone close to the Elysée had thus slipped to the side of ;RTL, at the beginning of June, that the head of state "is capable of wringing out Élisabeth Borne for a few more weeks or months".

< h2>Elisabeth Borne still fragile at agrave; Matignon?

If she remains in place for the time being, Elisabeth Borne knows that her maintenance is not indefinite. The differences in political lines have already become evident. Summer à the origin of tensions between her and the head of state, but the technocrat clings to her position. his new roadmap and the projects that have been undertaken for him. entrusted to ensure they stay as long as possible at home. Matignon. Especially since a successor may find himself in ambush. The Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin was presented at the meeting. as a possible replacement for the sixty-year-old, and if Matignon passed to him. under his nose this time, he will not miss a new opportunity to climb the ladder.

Elisabeth Borne must also deal with the same difficulties encountered during the year elapsed: absence of majority absolute and fierce opposition to the National Assembly, in addition to unpopularity strengthened after the pension reform crisis.