End of NDP deal may discourage Liberals from changing leader

Photo: Sean Kilpatrick Archives The Canadian Press In the eyes of Jeremy Ghio, one formula that the Liberals should adopt “is to put the emphasis on their team and less and less on Justin Trudeau,” because, according to him, the Prime Minister is their Achilles heel.

Émilie Bergeron – The Canadian Press

Published at 3:31 p.m. Updated at 4:32 p.m.

• Canada

The end of the agreement between Justin Trudeau's minority government and the New Democrats could dissuade Liberal MPs from demanding their leader's departure.

Two former advisers for the political party believe that the possibility of an election being called in the coming months could convince more than one that there is no time for a change of captain.

Still, they expect Trudeau to face adversity when he meets with his assembled caucus on Monday for a three-day retreat in Nanaimo, B.C.

“To me, the NDP's withdrawal from the deal makes Trudeau's departure less likely. Is it impossible ? Nothing is impossible in politics, but it would put the Liberals in a difficult position,” says Jeremy Ghio, a director at the consulting firm TACT who worked with Minister Mélanie Joly.

If the Liberals nevertheless decided to push Mr. Trudeau out, “they would have to be prepared to go to an election with an interim leader, which is far from ideal,” he said in an interview with The Canadian Press.

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Greg MacEachern, a former Liberal strategist and now president of the lobbying firm KAN Strategies, believes that the Liberals will have to “deal with current realities” rather than “determine what could be” otherwise.

“The end of the support and confidence agreement means that the runway for other avenues before the next election is becoming increasingly short,” he summarizes.

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have been leading the polls for about a year, and the Liberals are struggling to close the gap that puts them in second place.

Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer met with the media in Nanaimo to send a message to Canadians that the Liberals are hurting their pocketbooks and will continue to do so regardless of who leads them.

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“They are all in agreement with the policies that have caused the crisis that all Canadians are facing, the affordability crisis. High prices are out of control, a direct result of Justin Trudeau’s inflationary policies,” he said.

Toronto-St. Paul’s

For his part, Greg MacEachern expects the Liberal caucus to ask Mr. Trudeau for explanations on what has been done since the defeat in the by-election in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Conservatives swept the Ontario riding in late June, taking a seat from the Liberals that they had held for more than 30 years.

Wayne Long is the only Liberal MP who has publicly called for Justin Trudeau to step down. The MP, who has no plans to seek re-election, believes Canadians are no longer listening to the prime minister.

“I’m really concerned that the old ‘keep calm and carry on’ … is not going to put us on the path to winning the next election,” the New Brunswick MP recently told The Canadian Press.

Many observers of the federal political scene saw the Toronto-St. Paul's as a test of Mr. Trudeau's leadership and as a potential indicator of the battle to come in the next general election.

“What I'm hearing from caucus and political staff is that they want to hear that the Prime Minister's Office has heard them and is responding to their concerns,” MacEachern said.

Changes, but what kind?

He believes a simple way to address those dissatisfactions would be to make changes. But “there haven't been many, other than Jeremy Broadhurst, in the party office,” the former strategist said, referring to the resignation of the Liberals' national campaign director.

Ghio said Mr. Broadhurst's departure can be seen as an opportunity to bring about renewal, but also as another setback for Justin Trudeau.

“Nevertheless, it gives the impression of hard blows piling up for Justin Trudeau. This is Mr. Broadhurst's departure. Will Mr. Trudeau also see his Quebec lieutenant leave for the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party? ? That's not out of the question.”

Indeed, the Minister of Transport and political lieutenant of the Liberals for Quebec, Pablo Rodriguez, is thinking of making the jump to the provincial scene.

In any case, federal Liberal MPs could view the death of the agreement with the NDP in a positive light, since, Mr. MacEachern notes, some of them were not comfortable with this agreement.

These elected officials may therefore feel that their party is going back to “red” and away from “orange-red,” he adds, mentioning that the Cabinet retreat seemed to him to be focused on the idea of ​​“taking care of business.”

“There have been signals from the Liberals that they are becoming more focused on business and the economy.”

In Jeremy Ghio’s view, one formula the Liberals should adopt “is to put the emphasis on their team and less and less on Justin Trudeau,” because, according to him, the prime minister is their Achilles heel.

With information from Laura Osman