End of the war between Israel and Gaza ? What the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar changes

Israel's Elimination of Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar Raises Questions About the soot of the conflict in the Gaza Strip. The name of his successor could bring about major changes.

Believed to be the mastermind of the Hamas attack in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the terrorist organization, was killed during an operation in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on Thursday, October 17, 2024. “Mass murderer Yahya Sinwar has been “eliminated,” Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz in a press release. The body of the leader of the Palestinian militia has been identified. For Israel, the elimination of Yahya Sinwar appears to be an indisputable victory. It was one of the main objectives of the IDF, along with the release of the hostages.

Hamas's hold “remains major in Gaza”

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the death of the Hamas leader could mark “the beginning of the end” of the war waged for more than a year in Gaza against the Palestinian Islamist movement. “This does not mean the end of the war in Gaza, but the beginning of the end,” he said on the night of Thursday to Friday. A position shared by France, the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron called for seizing this “opportunity” for the war to be “finally stopped”.

The disappearance of Yahya Sinwar can be learned as a “psychological deflagration” for Hamas, according to David Khalfa, a specialist in the region and author of Israel-Palestine, Year Zero, interviewed in the columns of the Telegram. In fact, the death of the leader of Hamas does not mean the pure and simple disappearance of the organization in the Palestinian enclave. In the past, Hamas has survived four wars and the assassinations of several of its political and/or military leaders. Despite the death of Ahmed Yassin in 2004, the movement still took control of the Gaza Strip three years later in 2007. Yahya Sinouar also succeeded Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in July by an Israeli strike.

“Even though the movement was very weakened, it (Hamas) has reconstituted units, as we saw in Jabaliya (in the north of the Palestinian territory, besieged and bombed by Israel), and its hold on Gaza remains major, notably via the control of humanitarian aid”, explains David Khalfa in Le Télégramme. This is why, at least in the coming days, the bombings should continue and not decrease in intensity. in the Gaza Strip.

Three profiles to replace Yahya Sinouar

So, who could replace him? ? According to CNN, which cites sources from American intelligence, several names have already been mentioned to take over from the leader of Hamas: First, Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of Yahya Sinwar, who has been in charge of armed operations in Gaza since his appointment as head of the political bureau. He supports a strong and radical opposition to Israel and has shown little inclination towards negotiations. In short, the strategy would be the same as that of his brother, which would absolutely not open the door to new discussions and, de facto, to a potential ceasefire.

Then, Khalil Al Hayya, elected to the Palestinian Legislative Council and senior Hamas official. He was one of the main negotiators with the former leader of the movement, Ismail Haniyeh and would remain open to talks, which would suit the United States, CNN specifies. Finally, Khaled Meshaal, head of the Syrian branch of Hamas, but his nomination may be prevented by his previous support for the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria.

Yahya Sinouar was one of the most hostile figures to a potential agreement between the two parties, as an obstacle. If he were to be replaced by a more political profile like Khalil Al Hayya, with more perspective and different opinions, the dynamic could therefore change. “We call on the Israeli government, world leaders and mediating countries to transform this military feat into a diplomatic feat,” the hostage families collective launched on X (ex-Twitter).

Hope for a dialogue with a view to a ceasefire ?

It is a certainty, “a page is turning” for independent analyst Eva Koulouriotis, as she states in Le Télégramme, after the disappearance of the Hamas leader. On the side Israel's second main goal remains the release of all hostages, and 97 out of 251 remain. The death of the Hamas leader could also lead to a resumption of negotiations for a ceasefire, a sine qua non condition for the release of the hostages.

So far, negotiations have only resulted in a short week of truce in November 2023 and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. “The elimination of Sinwar is an opportunity for the immediate release of the hostages and opens the way to profound change in Gaza: Without Hamas and without Iranian control, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz rightly said.

“Netanyahu could declare Hamas defeated and calm his base and his far-right allies by offering them this trophy. But the fanaticism of some of his allies, who dream of recolonizing the north of the Gaza Strip, should not be underestimated, warns David Khalfa in Le Télégramme. The body of the Hamas leader could also serve as a “trophy”, allowing the Israeli Prime Minister to affirm that he has kept his promise – “the eradication of Hamas”, as he had promised the Israelis – offering him at the same time the possibility of putting an end to the war on Gaza.

Finally, in Lebanon, despite Hezbollah's continued missile attacks on Israel, the death of the Hamas leader could trigger a dialogue aimed at ending the conflict on Lebanese soil. Hezbollah has repeatedly announced that the attacks on Israel, launched “in solidarity with Hamas”, could be stopped if a ceasefire were reached in Gaza. Hope remains.