Europe put to the test by Trump's resounding comeback

European leaders are converging on Budapest on Thursday, hoping to present a – relatively – united front in the face of Donald Trump's return to the White House, aware that their disagreements will be as many breaches into which the Republican billionaire will not fail to rush.

The day after a spectacular political comeback that stunned America and the world, nearly fifty heads of state and government are expected in the Hungarian capital for a summit of the European Political Community (EPC), before a smaller conclave with only the 27 members of the EU on Friday.

Becoming a supporter of Ukraine, the threat of military disengagement, the return of customs duties, environmental issues: the imminent arrival in Washington of the unpredictable businessman, four years after the end of his first term, places the EU and the countries close to it in the face of dizzying challenges.

“The Europeans really have a knife to their throats,” summarizes Sébastien Maillard, from the Jacques Delors Institute. “The result of this election forces the EU to open its eyes. It is perhaps in situations like these that things can be done.”

Despite repeated calls in recent months for greater European “strategic autonomy”, the bloc seems to have been caught off guard by a second term that it had hoped could be avoided.

“To put it bluntly, I don't think they have really prepared for such a scenario,” sums up Guntram Wolff of the Bruegel think tank. “There is no elaborate plan on how to proceed, either at the European level or at the Franco-German level.”

But the famous couple, without whom the European machine inevitably seizes up, is in a bad position.

In France, Emmanuel Macron is weakened after the defeat of his camp in the legislative elections. In Germany, Olaf Scholz has just dismissed his Finance Minister Christian Lindner, signaling the end of the coalition with the liberals, and the country is heading towards early elections.

The French president certainly took the initiative to speak with the German Chancellor as soon as Donald Trump's victory was achieved, to jointly affirm the need for a “more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context”.

But, beyond this stated desire, the risk of disunity within the 27 is real.

– “Real divergences” –

Photo released by the office of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban posing with Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on July 11, 2024 © X ACCOUNT OF HUNGARY'S PRIME MINISTER VIKTOR ORBAN – ZOLTAN FISCHER

“I think there will be real divergences (between European leaders) and that will be seen,” says Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund. “When the Trump team takes office (on January 20), they will not hesitate to encourage them.”

In economic terms, faced with the announced “customs shock”, the danger is that “everyone will go and make their own trip to Washington”, in the words of Sébastien Maillard.

Donald Trump, who during the campaign compared the EU to a “mini China” that abuses its American ally by accumulating massive trade surpluses, says he wants to increase customs duties between 10 and 20% for all products entering the United States.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has consistently shown his support for his “friend” from Florida and immediately hailed his “resounding success”, will play a unique and perilous role in Budapest when he receives European leaders.

The attitude of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is accused by her detractors of being too Atlanticist, will also be closely scrutinised during this first summit after the American election.

Extending her “warm” congratulations to Donald Trump, she remained very cautious in her first reaction, limiting herself to reaffirming the importance of the European and American “partnership between peoples”.

The aim of the EPC, initially imagined by Emmanuel Macron, is to bring together much wider than the European Union. Beyond the 27 members of the bloc, some twenty countries have been invited, countries with radically different trajectories towards the EU: declared (and impatient) candidates for membership, countries that know that the door is closed to them for a long time and the United Kingdom, which has chosen to leave with a bang.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who congratulated his “friend” Donald Trump on Wednesday, is among the leaders expected for this 5th edition. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose country fears a drop in American aid, has also announced his attendance.

For this largest diplomatic meeting ever held in Hungary, Viktor Orban has chosen the flamboyant Puskas Arena stadium, named after the legendary football player Ferenc Puskas, a symbol of his passion for the game.

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