Photo: Gavriil Grigorov Sputnik Kremlin Pool via Associated Press Comparing the Ukrainian incursion to the Islamist terrorism that had brought mourning to Beslan and shocked Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin vows to “defeat these criminals.”
Agence France-Presse in Warsaw
Posted at 1:11 p.m.
- Europe
Caught off guard by a bold offensive that allowed Ukraine to seize hundreds of square kilometers of Russian territory, the Kremlin has been keeping a low profile so far, avoiding any major threats.
In his style of downplaying bad news, Vladimir Putin sees the largest foreign military incursion on Russian soil since World War II as a mere “development.”
“That’s his usual reaction in such circumstances: he disappears until the situation calms down, then acts as if everything is normal,” explains expert Ekaterina Schulmann.
Having retreated for months in the face of Russian troops advancing in its eastern territory, Ukraine took the fight to Russia on August 6 with an unprecedented and ongoing offensive against the Kursk border region.
In the face of this surprise attack, the Russian president reserved his harshest comments for an unlikely audience: three mothers who lost children in the 2004 Beslan school massacre in the North Caucasus.
“These enemies … continue their work, trying to shake our country,” he said this week during a memorial visit.
Comparing the Ukrainian incursion to the Islamist terrorism that had mourned Beslan and shocked Russia, he promised to “defeat these criminals.”
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Usual ups and downs
Asserting that it has seized nearly a hundred towns and more than 1,250 km2 of Russian territory, Ukraine says it hopes its offensive will reverse the course of the war and force Russia to negotiate to take into account the weariness of its population.
The reality, experts say, is likely to be very different.
Since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin no longer tolerates any criticism.
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000Accustomed to the ups and downs of conflict, the Russians, these experts explain, will not be discouraged by the loss of border villages, even if it were to last weeks or even months.
“Yes, it is painful, you can see it in the reactions” of officials, says Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
“There is a difference […] between the loss of Russian territory and the loss of conquered territory,” he acknowledges. But “I don't think that for the Russian elite or the Russian population, this kind of failure is important news.”
Militarily, Russia currently has few options.
“Putin will not bomb the Kursk region like he bombed Bakhmut,” a Ukrainian city captured by Russia in the spring of 2023 after months of intense bombing and at the cost of heavy losses, says analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.
It is difficult to say how long the Ukrainians will be able to hold the conquered ground, but it is likely that their incursion into Russian territory will last “months,” she adds.
Moscow has a “chance” to retake its lost territories, but it “will take time,” agrees Mr. Gabuev.
Russia is preparing its response, according to experts, who point out that Vladimir Putin does not like to rush before retaliate.
“We will know sooner or later how Putin will take revenge,” Mr. Gabuev emphasizes.
Hope for talks
State television coverage has so far focused on the humanitarian angle: the displaced population of the Kursk region and the volunteers who are helping them.
Anger over the ease with which Ukrainian troops have entered Russian territory and the government’s slow response has, by contrast, remained contained and largely confined to affected families, Mr. Gabuev observes.
Russia’s border regions, he says, are statistically the most supportive of Russian invasion and are unlikely to turn against the Kremlin.
In Moscow, the shock is fading quickly after two and a half years of a continuous roller coaster ride.
“It’s not felt nationally and is simply seen as an aspect of the war,” Ms. Stanovaya notes.
But experts say they see signs that support for peace negotiations are on the rise.
“In the surveys conducted over the past six months, a paradoxical situation has emerged. Respondents say at the same time: 'We support everything, the special military operation (the official name of the war) was justified but it must be stopped,'” notes Mr. Schulmann.
The Kursk episode has “changed nothing” in the Kremlin's “radical position,” says Ms. Stanovaya, for whom Vladimir Putin will only stop the fight “on his terms.”