Far-right causes political earthquake in Germany

Photo: Michael Probst POOL Agence France-Presse German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is weakened after the results of regional elections.

Céline Le Prioux – Agence France-Presse in Berlin

Published yesterday at 10:18 p.m.

• Europe

The German far right is establishing itself as unavoidable after record results in two regional elections in the east of the country, further weakening Olaf Scholz’s centre-left coalition, a year before the legislative elections.

“There will be no more politics without the AfD,” warned Tino Chrupalla, the co-president of this anti-migrant party, with pro-Russian positions, which won an unprecedented victory on Sunday.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the leading political force in Thuringia and is hot on the heels of the conservatives in Saxony, two Länder of the former GDR.

The far-right party immediately claimed to lead the region where it came out on top with 32.8% of the votes, according to provisional results.

Its leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, one of the most radical figures in the party, says he is “ready for cooperation” but no other party wants to ally itself with him.

In this region, which was the first to bring the Nazis to power in 1932, the AfD could have a blocking minority, allowing it in particular to prevent the appointment of judges.

The daily newspaper Tagesspiegel speaks of a “political earthquake in the east”, the Süddeutsche Zeitung of an “alarming result for the democrats”.

In addition to the AfD, voters also voted in favor of the new BSW party, which is very virulently against immigration and demands the cessation of arms deliveries to Ukraine. Founded before the elections around a radical left-wing figure Sahra Wagenknecht, it obtained 11.8% in Saxony and 15.8% in Thuringia.

“Slap” for Scholz

In Saxony, the AfD gained 7 points (30.6%) and came second behind the conservative CDU (31.9%), who also ruled out any alliance with the far right but will struggle to find a majority in the regional parliament in Dresden.

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The Hungary of nationalist Viktor Orban welcomed the success of the AfD: “The German Länder have sent a message to Brussels and Berlin: no migration, no gender concept, no war,” commented Balazs Orban, political director of the prime minister (no relation).

The scores of the far right in these regions where it has taken root over the last ten years constitute a new setback for the three parties in the ruling coalition, social democrats, greens and liberals, before the legislative elections in September. 2025.

In the European elections in June, they were severely beaten by the conservative opposition and the far right.

Olaf Scholz's SPD recorded its worst result in a regional election in Thuringia, with an estimated score of 6.1%. It also did worse than five years ago in Saxony, with 7.3%.

Enough to fear the worst for the regional election to be held on September 22 in Brandenburg, the region around Berlin, currently led by the Social Democrats.

The executive is paying the price for the discontent of a section of public opinion, fueled by inflation or the ecological transition that the government is trying to implement, under the impetus of the Greens. The constant disputes within this tripartite team only serve to fuel its unpopularity.

“This is a huge slap in the face for the entire government and especially for Scholz,” Marianne Kneuer, a professor of political science at the Technical University of Dresden, told AFP.

Fragmentation

The rout predicted by the polls was compounded by the impact of the attack that killed three people in Solingen at the end of August. The alleged perpetrator, a 26-year-old Syrian refugee, was due to be expelled, which rekindled the debate on immigration.

The Greens are leaving the Thuringia regional parliament, having failed to pass the 5% threshold required. They barely hold on to Saxony.

The spectacular breakthrough of the BSW party adds to the fragmentation of the political landscape. The movement is trying to combine left-wing economic policies with conservatism on social issues such as immigration and the environment.

It will pose as a kingmaker in the formation of local governments. Its outcome could have repercussions far beyond regional borders, with Sahra Wagenknecht demanding that, in exchange for any alliance, the state governments refuse the planned deployment of American medium-range missiles in Germany.