French National Assembly Prepares to Censor Barnier Government

Photo: Alain Jocard Agence France-Presse Faced with the seemingly inevitable scenario, Michel Barnier called on television Tuesday evening for the “responsibility” of MPs to avoid censure, in the “higher interest of the country”.

MPs began debating a motion of censure in Paris on Wednesday that is very likely to be voted on in the evening, a first in France since 1962, which would worsen the political and economic uncertainty in a pivotal country of the European Union.

A vote is expected around 8 p.m. (2 p.m. in Quebec), but the suspense seems limited: the left-wing and far-right National Rally party blocs, which are calling for censuring the government, have gathered more than the necessary majority of votes.

The leaders of this alliance of convenience have largely suggested that beyond the current government, it was Emmanuel Macron who was in their sights, even if the fate of the French president, whose term runs until 2027, is not legally linked to that of the government.

The leader of the French far right, Marine Le Pen, has estimated that the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier must fall, because it perpetuates “the technocratic choices” of President Macron, elected in 2017 and re-elected in 2022.

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The three-time unsuccessful candidate in the presidential election, including twice against Mr Macron, added that the latter must “decide for himself whether he [was] able to remain [President of the Republic] or not”.

Before Ms Le Pen, Eric Coquerel, on behalf of the elected left-wing members of the New Popular Front (NFP), had called for his part to “toll the death knell for a mandate: that of President” Macron.

Barnier calls for “responsibility”

This probable censorship follows months of crisis, triggered by the dissolution of the National Assembly wanted by the head of state after the rout of his camp in the European elections in the face of the extreme right.

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The early legislative elections that followed resulted in the formation of an assembly divided into three blocs (left-wing alliance, Macronists and right, extreme right), none of which has an absolute majority. After 50 days of negotiations, a government of the right and the centre was finally appointed at the beginning of September. But its fragility already seemed very great at the time.

The fall of the executive led by Michel Barnier, after only three months in office, would constitute a record brevity since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958.

The two motions were tabled after the Prime Minister triggered Article 49.3 of the Constitution on Monday, allowing a text to be adopted without a vote, for the Social Security budget.

A decision taken at the end of several days of bitter budgetary discussions, during which Mr. Barnier gave in to several demands from the extreme right, which was always demanding more, according to him.

Faced with the seemingly inevitable scenario, Mr. Barnier had called on television on Tuesday evening for the “responsibility” of deputies to avoid censure, in “the greater interest of the country.”

Red flags on several levels

From Saudi Arabia, where he was on a state visit, the French president had stated for his part that he could “not believe in a vote of censure” of the government.

Mr. Macron was due to return to Paris on Wednesday evening, in time to study the follow-up to be given to a possible fall of the executive. In the event of censure, it will be up to him to appoint a new prime minister.

A fall of the government would make “everything more difficult and more serious”, insisted Prime Minister Barnier, while the signals are already, according to him, red on the budgetary, financial, economic and social levels.

The public deficit, expected at 6.1% of GDP in 2024, much higher than the 4.4% forecast for autumn 2023, would miss its 5% target in the absence of a budget, and political uncertainty would weigh on the cost of debt and growth.

In the event of a no-confidence vote, both the left and the centre or right appear disunited in agreeing on a new coalition government.

Marine Le Pen has her eyes fixed on the next presidential election scheduled for 2027. But her political destiny is hanging on a decision justice expected on March 31. She risks five years of ineligibility with immediate effect for embezzling European Parliament funds for her party.

If a rapid solution is not found, the deputies will have to vote on a “special law” to ensure the continuity of the functioning of the State.

Political instability partly explains the nervousness of the markets, in a context of heavy indebtedness: the 10-year borrowing rate of France even rose, on November 27, very briefly above that of Greece, traditionally a bad student in this area in the European Union.