Georgia finds itself at a crossroads

Photo: Charles-Frédérick Ouellet Le Devoir In the densely populated Didube neighborhood in the north of the city, where Georgians and other ethnic minorities such as Armenians and Azeris live side by side, the Georgian Dream party’s election signs are omnipresent.

Magdaline Boutros

Published yesterday at 7:24 p.m.

• Europe

Like many of her fellow citizens, Ekaterine Danelia was surprised by the “rapid autocratic turn” that the Georgian Dream party took last spring. Since then, the 35-year-old activist has worked tirelessly to return Georgia to a democratic path. On Saturday, voters in the former Soviet republic are going to the polls to decide whether the country should move closer to the European Union or Russia. ?

It’s hard to predict who will emerge victorious in these legislative elections, the first to be held using proportional representation: the Georgian Dream party, which has ruled the country for 12 years, or the coalition of four opposition parties.

“We’re all in wait-and-see mode,” Ekaterine says in a video interview from Tbilisi, the Georgian capital. “It's a topic we discuss every day with our friends, colleagues, and those around us. I feel like people have put their lives on hold and are waiting for the elections. No one really knows what our future holds.”

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After an aborted attempt in 2023, Georgian Dream had the controversial law on “transparency of foreign influence” adopted at the end of May. Last year, the party founded by the extremely wealthy businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili was forced to backtrack due to the intensity of the popular protest.

Photo: Charles-Frédérick Ouellet Le Devoir Having become independent in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet empire, Georgia, a country of 3.7 million people located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, is trying to move closer to the West. For over thirty years, the country has been trying to free itself from the domination of its northern neighbor, which continues to exert a strong influence there.

“This time, they acted quickly and no one was really prepared for it,” notes Ekaterine, who nevertheless participated with thousands of her fellow citizens in major demonstrations in April and May, some of which were severely repressed by the authorities.

Now, any organization receiving 20% ​​of its funding from abroad is required to register as an agent serving the interests of a foreign power, a status that comes with greater administrative control. The legislation is modeled on the 2012 Russian law on foreign agents, which has since been copied in several countries within Moscow’s sphere of influence, including Azerbaijan, Hungary, and Kyrgyzstan.

A Referendum-like Appearance

For Vakhtang Menabde, a law professor at Ilia State University in Tbilisi, “this law contradicts the basic forms of democracy and goes against freedom of association.”

Since the law was passed, the European Union—which had granted Georgia coveted candidate status a few months earlier—has frozen the Caucasian country’s accession process. In Professor Menabde’s eyes, Saturday’s legislative elections are therefore taking on the air of a referendum. “Georgians must choose between democracy and authoritarianism. It is also a geopolitical choice between the European Union and Russian imperialism,” he sums up.

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Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, of the Georgian Dream party, also passed a law on “family values” in September, which criticizes the “propaganda of homosexual relations” and restricts the rights of the LGBTQ+ community. A legislative text inspired, this time again, by a similar law adopted by Moscow, but in 2013.

For Ekaterine, who works at the Dalan Fund, a feminist organization working for social justice and the reduction of inequalities, it is clear that Georgian Dream is applying “the manual of Russian imperialism.” “Closing civic space is the first step of this manual,” she denounces, adding that the government is trying to “deepen an artificial polarization of society.”

Photo: Charles-Frédérick Ouellet Le Devoir In the heart of the city, several graffiti bearing the flags of the European Union and Georgia stand side by side, symbolizing the strong support of residents for European integration and their desire for rapprochement with the West. According to polls, 80% of Georgians want integration into the European Union, but since the fall of 2023, a democratic regression implemented by the Georgian Dream party has undermined the chances of seeing this project see the light of day.

About 80 percent of Georgians want their country to unite its future with that of Europe. But during the election campaign, Georgian Dream’s repeated rhetoric that these elections represent a choice between war and peace appears to have resonated with many voters. Capitalizing on Georgians’ fears that their powerful Russian neighbor will invade them again, the party has repeatedly argued that Georgia will become the next Ukraine if the opposition, which openly defies the Kremlin, comes to power.

Election posters showing images of Ukraine’s destruction accompanied by slogans presenting Georgian Dream as the only bulwark against war have been plastered across the country of 3.8 million people. Let us recall that Russian troops have still occupied, since the 2008 invasion, approximately 20% of Georgia's territory.

A pro-European opposition

Formerly close to Georgian Dream, before the party made its pro-Russian shift, the President of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili, whose powers are limited, is now a fervent critic of the government and clearly sets out her pro-European positions.

Ahead of Saturday's elections, she has rallied the main opposition parties (including the United National Movement of former president and Rose Revolution leader Mikheil Saakashvili, now in prison) around a charter committing them, if they come to power, to repeal the laws on foreign agents and on family values ​​while implementing political and judicial reforms. Measures that could allow the country to regain its status as a candidate for the European Union.

Photo: Charles-Frédérick Ouellet Le Devoir On October 26, 2024, Georgians will go to the polls to elect the country's next government.

On Saturday, election observers will be on the ground in the country to monitor the elections. “Georgian Dream did not adopt aggressive measures before the vote [contrary to what many feared],” reports Ekaterine.

For Professor Menabde, rigging the vote “would be difficult, but not impossible.” “But if Georgian Dream wins the elections, the regime will become stricter […] and harsher than it is today,” he predicts. An increase in repression is also to be expected, fears Ekaterine.

Everything suggests that it will take a few days before the results of the vote are revealed. A strong citizen mobilization could emerge in the coming days. Vakhtang Menabde says he is convinced that a large part of the Georgian people will choose democracy. “I hope that the government will be reasonable enough to accept the people’s choice and give up power.”