Germany: Far-right causes political earthquake in the East and weakens Scholz

The German far right has emerged as a force to be reckoned with after record results in two regional elections in the east of the country, further weakening Olaf Scholz's centre-left coalition a year before the legislative elections.

“There will be no more politics without the AfD,” warned Tino Chrupalla, the co-president of this anti-migrant party, with pro-Russian positions, which won an unprecedented victory on Sunday.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has become the leading political force in Thuringia and is hot on the heels of the conservatives in Saxony, two Länder of the former GDR.

The far-right party immediately claimed to lead the region where it came out on top with 32.8% of the vote, according to provisional results.

Björn Höcke, the leader of the far-right AfD party in Thuringia, during a televised debate in Erfurt, Germany, on September 1, 2024 © AFP – Ronny HARTMANN

Its leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, one of the most radical figures in the party, says he is “ready for cooperation” but no other party wants to ally with him.

In this region, which was the first to bring the Nazis to power in 1932, the AfD could have a blocking minority, allowing it in particular to prevent the appointment of judges.

The daily Tagesspiegel speaks of a “political earthquake in the East”, the Süddeutsche Zeitung of an “alarming result for the Democrats”.

In addition to the AfD, voters also voted for the new BSW party, which is very virulent against immigration and demands a halt to arms deliveries to Ukraine. Founded before the elections around a radical left-wing figure, Sahra Wagenknecht, it obtained 11.8% in Saxony and 15.8% in Thuringia.

– “Slap” for Scholz –

In Saxony, the AfD progressed by 7 points (30.6%) and placed second behind the conservatives of the CDU (31.9%), who also exclude any alliance with the extreme right but will have difficulty finding a majority in the regional parliament of Dresden.

The German far right is establishing itself as a force to be reckoned with after record results in two regional elections in the east of the country © AFP – Ronny HARTMANN

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Hungary's nationalist Viktor Orban hailed the AfD's success: “The German states have sent a message to Brussels and Berlin: no migration, no gender concept, no war,” commented Balazs Orban, the prime minister's political director (no relation).

The far-right's scores in these regions where it has taken root over the last ten years constitute a new setback for the three parties in the ruling coalition, the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals, ahead of the September 2025 legislative elections.

In the European elections in June, they were severely beaten by the conservative opposition and the far right.

Olaf Scholz's SPD recorded its worst result in a regional election in Thuringia, with an estimated score of 6.1%. It also did less well than five years ago in Saxony, with 7.3%.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at a wreath-laying ceremony for the victims of a deadly knife attack in Solingen, western Germany, on September 1, 2024 © POOL – Michael Probst

Which is enough to fear the worst for the regional election to be held on September 22 in Brandenburg, the region around Berlin, currently led by the social democrats.

The executive is paying for the discontent of a section of public opinion, fueled by inflation and the ecological transition that the government is trying to implement, under the impetus of the Greens. The continual disputes within this tripartite team only fuel its unpopularity.

“It's a huge slap in the face for the entire government and particularly for Scholz,” Marianne Kneuer, professor of political science at the Technical University of Dresden, told AFP.

– Fragmentation –

The rout predicted by the polls was compounded by the impact of the attack that left three dead in Solingen (west) at the end of August. The alleged perpetrator, a 26-year-old Syrian refugee, should have been deported, which has reignited the debate on immigration.

The Greens are out of the Thuringian state parliament, having failed to pass the necessary 5% threshold. They are narrowly holding on in Saxony.

The spectacular breakthrough of the BSW party adds to the fragmentation of the political landscape. The movement is trying to combine left-wing economic policies with conservatism on social issues such as immigration and the environment.

It will pose as kingmaker in the formation of local governments. Its outcome could have repercussions far beyond regional borders, with Sahra Wagenknecht demanding that, in exchange for any alliance, the state governments refuse the planned deployment of American medium-range missiles in Germany.

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