Germany: Far-right expected to show strength in two regional elections

The far right is expected to achieve unprecedented success on Sunday in two regional elections in eastern Germany that are likely to further weaken Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in a context that has become heated following the attack in Solingen.

Polling stations opened at 08:00 local time (06:00 GMT) for the approximately 3.3 million voters in Saxony and 1.7 million in Thuringia called to the polls. The first estimates are expected shortly after the polls close at around 6:00 p.m. local time (4:00 p.m. GMT).

These test elections in Saxony and Thuringia come just over a week after the triple stabbing murder attributed to a Syrian in this western town, which shocked the country and rekindled a lively debate on immigration.

According to the latest polls, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is making progress in both Länder.

In Thuringia, which is home to the most radical wing of the AfD with its local leader Björn Höcke, it is expected to win ahead of the conservative CDU.

In Saxony, the CDU is just ahead of it. A newcomer, the BSW party, of the former far-left muse Sahra Wagenknecht, is expected to make a breakthrough.

Both the AfD and the BSW are appealing with their virulent rhetoric against immigration and their call for an end to arms deliveries to Ukraine, a position that is very popular in these regions of the former communist GDR where the fear of war remains deeply rooted.

Campaign event of the far-right AfD party in front of the cathedral of Erfurt, Thuringia, in eastern Germany, on August 31, 2024 © AFP – John MACDOUGALL

A victory for the AfD in a regional election would be a first in the country since the post-war period, although it is unlikely that the party will lead a government, as the other parties refuse any coalition with him.

And it would further undermine the Chancellor's highly unpopular coalition government with the Greens and the FDP liberals, a year before the 2025 general election.

– Scholz under pressure –

His Social Democratic party is down to around 6% in both regions, according to polls.

The Chancellor is due to return to Solingen on Sunday to attend a memorial service for the victims.

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Special police unit officers take away the alleged perpetrator of the Solingen stabbing attack on August 25, 2024 in Karlsruhe, southern Germany © AFP – THOMAS KIENZLE

AfD leaders have sought to capitalize on anger over the Solingen attack, accusing successive federal governments of sowing “chaos”

The alleged assailant, suspected of links to the Islamic State (IS) jihadist organization, had managed to evade an expulsion order.

Under pressure, Olaf Scholz's government announced tougher rules on carrying weapons and checking immigration.

Germany also expelled around thirty Afghan convicts on Friday, for the first time since the Taliban returned to power three years ago.

– “Not fooled” –

“Smoke and mirrors just before the regional elections,” Björn Höcke mocked on Welt TV, but “people are not fooled.”

At the party's last campaign meeting on Saturday in Erfurt, the capital of Thuringia, Thorsten Häntzsche, a 52-year-old voter, told AFP that he “dreamed of an absolute majority.” “But we are realistic. A score of at least 33% would be great because it would give us a blocking minority in the (regional) parliament.”

The AfD, essentially eurosceptic when it was created in 2013, became more radical after the major migration crisis of 2015, the Covid-19 pandemic and then the Russian war in Ukraine which weakened Europe's leading economy.

It has won several electoral victories in recent months, obtaining its best score in history in the European elections in June.

The former GDR has proven to be fertile ground, due to persistent inequalities since reunification in 1990 and a deep demographic crisis, despite a renewed economic attractiveness.

Meeting of the far-right AfD party, with in background a screen showing its leader in Thuringia Björn Höcke, on August 31, 2024 in Erfurt, eastern Germany © AFP – John MACDOUGALL

The AfD has gradually slipped into the role of the radical left Die Linke, heir to the former communist party of the GDR, which took care of the specific needs of East Germans, underlines Ursula Münch, director of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing (south).

“The AfD has become a normality in the east”, it is a bit “like in France, where the National Rally has gradually become almost the norm”, she adds.

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