Germany on the road to February elections and a probable change of power

Germany is heading towards early parliamentary elections on February 23 and a very likely political change, after the collapse of Olaf Scholz's coalition undermined by disagreements.

The election date, which has been the subject of several days of wrangling, was ratified by the main opposition party, the conservative CDU/CSU, and Chancellor Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD), while German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier considered it “realistic”.

It will be “February 23, fortunately, things are clear on this point”, declared the leader of the liberals Christian Lindner, whose dismissal a week ago led to the explosion of the coalition of the social democrat Olaf Scholz with the Greens and the FDP (liberals).

Earlier, on December 16, the Chancellor will submit to a vote of confidence by the members of the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament where he no longer has an absolute majority, announced the leader of the SPD group in parliament Rolf Mützenich.

For his part, the head of state “welcomes the agreement reached by the parliamentary groups for a roadmap for a vote of confidence” that day and “considers that February 23, 2025 is a realistic date for new elections,” informed Mr. Steinmeier's office early in the evening.

Once Olaf Scholz has lost this vote in the Bundestag, the German president will have three weeks to dissolve the chamber.

This calendar offers some visibility to Germany, which is struggling with a serious industrial crisis and is worried about the repercussions for its trade and security of the election of Republican Donald Trump as head of the United States.

The sudden breakdown of the three-party coalition in power for three years, linked to disagreements on economic policy that have become insurmountable, has plunged Europe's leading economy into an unprecedented situation.

With this crisis, the leader of the conservatives Friedrich Merz, Angela Merkel's former great rival, sees his dream of accessing the chancellery come closer, his party being widely expected to win the election.

– Winter campaign –

Olaf Scholz, now at the head of a minority government with the environmentalists, had initially set the confidence vote for January 15 with a view to a vote in March.

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But the unpopular leader was pressured from all sides to speed up the pace and backtracked, entrusting the task of setting the date to the two main political parties, the Social Democratic Party and the CDU/CSU in the opposing camp.

Germany is thus preparing to experience an electoral campaign in the middle of winter which will not make the task of the candidates any easier and will not motivate voters to participate in their rallies.

But the polls seem to indicate that the vast majority of Germans wanted these elections to take place as soon as possible, considering that their country cannot afford to wait any longer after months of political quarrels which have paralyzed government action.

On Tuesday, President Steinmeier urged all major parties to “discuss responsibly and together” proposals or bills “that can still be implemented in order to guarantee Germany's internal and external security and its international reliability in this transition phase.”

The new German Finance Minister, Jörg Kukies, however, judged the adoption of a federal budget for 2025 before the early elections to be “unrealistic” on the same day.

– “Probability close to certainty” –

The parties have already all thrown themselves into the battle. In the front line, the conservatives and their leader Friedrich Merz are today credited with some 32% of voting intentions.

Friedrich Merz will be “the next chancellor, with a probability close to certainty”, judged Christian Lindner during a conference in Berlin, the only question being to know with whom he will govern.

Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz arrives at the Bellevue presidential palace for talks with the German president, November 7, 2024 in Berlin © AFP – Odd ANDERSEN

According to the polls, forming a coalition does not look easy.

The conservatives rule out any alliance with the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the far-right party, at 19.5% in the latest poll by the Insa institute.

And Friedrich Merz would like to avoid a three-way coalition, but he risks lacking a sufficiently solid partner, with the SPD at 15.5% of voting intentions, the Greens at 11.5% and the FDP, at just 5%.

Olaf Scholz, despite his plummeting popularity rating, intends to lead the SPD campaign, while his Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius, also a Social Democrat, is by far the most popular politician in Germany of all colors.

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