Global warming: the point of no return is dangerously close

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As our planet continues to warm unabated, the scientific community is sounding the alarm: we are dangerously close to critical tipping points, beyond which the Earth's climate could undergo radical and permanent changes.

The work of Tessa Möller and Annika Ernest Högner, climatologists at the University of Potsdam, highlights four such points of no return that, once crossed, could not only exacerbate global warming, but also destroy any hope of turning back the clock. As global temperatures dangerously approach the 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement, the risk of crossing these critical thresholds has never been higher.

The Four Horsemen of the Climate Apocalypse

The study led by Möller and Högner identifies four key systems in Earth's climate that are likely to reach a breaking point: the Atlantic Ocean Main Current (AMOC), the Amazon Rainforest, and the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. Each of these systems is a fundamental pillar of our planet's thermal regulation; Without them, the Earth would be uninhabitable, subject to extreme weather events and devastating sea level rise.

The AMOC, for example, distributes heat across the oceans. Its disruption could cause very serious climate upheavals, such as extremely harsh winters in Europe or devastating droughts in West Africa.

At the same time, the Amazon rainforest, often referred to as the “lungs of the planet”, risks becoming a net emitter of carbon (a system that releases more CO2 into the atmosphere than it absorbs), thereby aggravating global warming. Some analysts fear that it has already crossed this threshold, becoming a source of carbon rather than a sink, which would have catastrophic consequences for the climatic balance of our planet.

An uncertain future, a growing risk

The climate projections presented in this study reveal an alarming scenario: if global temperatures continue to rise at the current rate, the risk of crossing one of these tipping points could reach 45% by the year 2300. This “tipping risk“, as experts call it, increases exponentially with each 0.1°C increase above the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement. Even more worrying, exceeding 2°C could dramatically accelerate this risk.

Although these climate models are fraught with uncertainties, the researchers insist on their relevance for understanding the potential consequences of exceeding climate targets. The research team emphasizes that “The temporary nature of exceeding temperature thresholds could provide us with an opportunity to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize ice sheets before irreversible changes take hold ». In other words, this means that if we exceed temporarily the temperature targets set by the Paris Agreement, we could still have a chance to turn things around.

A race against time to avoid the worst

Faced with these discoveries, drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving carbon neutrality by 2100 are therefore absolute imperatives. These measures are considered essential by the researchers to minimise the risk of a tipping point in the long term. Climate models predict that without such actions, the risk of a tipping point could rise to 76% by 2300, with potentially disastrous consequences for future generations.

Nevertheless, all hope is not lost. The scientists stress that every fraction of a degree avoided could mean the difference between a future in which the Earth remains habitable and one in which it becomes a hellish environment. The stability of our planet's climate system is at stake: this is the main message of the international team of researchers. To ward off this dark fate, intensifying global efforts to meet climate commitments is our only lever for action at our disposal.

• Global warming is bringing us closer to irreversible tipping points.
• Four key climate systems are at risk of collapse if temperatures exceed critical thresholds.
• Reducing emissions and achieving carbon neutrality by 2100 is essential to avoid climate catastrophe.

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