Government Censorship: Barnier Presents His Resignation at 10am, Macron Addresses the French at 8pm, What to Expect Today ?

And now ? The day after a historic censorship, Michel Barnier presents his resignation to Emmanuel Macron on Thursday, who will speak on television at 8 p.m. to try to set a course as a political period of rare uncertainty begins.

When will the new Prime Minister be appointed ? The head of state's entourage has not provided any details, but several people familiar with the president have confided that he intends to do so quickly, in contrast to the almost two months it took this summer to appoint Michel Barnier. France could therefore have a new head of government as early as Thursday evening ? “He has no choice,” says a close friend of Emmanuel Macron.

Because with the fall of Mr. Barnier, the political crisis that began with the dissolution of the National Assembly on June 9 has reached an unprecedented level. For the first time since 1962, a Prime Minister has been overthrown by the National Assembly after he engaged his responsibility.

Record of brevity at Matignon

The slap is all the more severe for the former European Commissioner because he was dismissed by a comfortable majority – 331 deputies. The ultimate affront: Michel Barnier now holds the unenviable record of brevity at Matignon under the Fifth Republic.

Deprived of a fuse, Emmanuel Macron is now facing a hail of attacks. Immediately after the censure, the head of the deputies of La France insoumise, Mathilde Panot, called for “early presidential elections”. “Even with a Barnier every three months, Macron will not last three years”, added Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

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While Marine Le Pen has not formally demanded the president's resignation, she has estimated that “the pressure” on her “will obviously be stronger and stronger” if “we do not take the voice of respect for voters”. During an interview on TF1's 8pm news, the far-right leader also assured that she and her supporters “will let the future Prime Minister work”, in order to “co-construct” a budget “acceptable to all”.

Squaring the circle

It is now up to the Head of State to resolve the squaring of the circle, between renewing the “common base”between macronists and LR or broadening its contours in order to create a government coalition that is better equipped to resist a future attempt at censorship.

Because the cracks threaten the already fragile edifice: Laurent Wauquiez (LR) thus declared that his party's commitment in September to the government coalition “was only valid for Michel Barnier”, when Gabriel Attal (Renaissance) proposed an agreement of “no censorship” with the PS to escape the tutelage of the RN.

The leader of the macronist deputies will bring together the leading figures of Renaissance on Thursday morning, we learned from a parliamentary source. The equation is all the more complex since a new dissolution and new legislative elections cannot take place before July.

Who for Matignon ?

By then, who for Matignon ? The names of the president of the MoDem François Bayrou, the Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu, the LR Xavier Bertrand, the former socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve or the mayor of Troyes François Baroin are circulating.

The very right-wing Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau, sometimes considered close to the ideas of the RN, or the historical Macronist Roland Lescure, associated with the social-democratic branch of Renaissance, are also the subject of speculation.

The task of the future incumbent is in any case immense: in his speech before the Assembly which was preparing to dismiss him, Michel Barnier warned that the “reality” budgetary will not “disappear by the enchantment of a motion of censure”. Expected at 6.1% of GDP in 2024, much higher than the 4.4% forecast in the fall of 2023, the public deficit would miss its 5% target in the absence of a budget, and political uncertainty would weigh on the cost of debt and growth.

Emmanuel Macron, who called on Tuesday to “not to scare”, will have to be convincing on Thursday evening to reassure. A mission all the more difficult since his popularity is at its lowest since he came to power in 2017, or since the yellow vest crisis the following year, according to the barometers.