Heat pumps popular in France risk having major problems in the future

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Andreas Bangheri, CEO of heat pump manufacturer Heliotherm, has a special hobby: hang gliding. This passion has allowed him to observe a worrying change in recent years.

“The wind is getting stronger and stronger. It's a growing problem”, he says. This phenomenon, far from being insignificant, could well have significant repercussions on the efficiency of heat pumps.

The tide is turning for heat pumps

Indeed, strong winds directly affect the operation of these devices. Bangheri has observed this phenomenon in his own installations: “We have observed a greater wind chill effect”. In practical terms, this means that the machines need 10 to 15% more defrosting than normal.

The problem is not limited to mountainous regions. In Hamburg, a coastal city in northern Germany known for its strong winds, Heliotherm has seen similar effects on many installations. This trend could well become more widespread as climate change increases extreme weather events.

Faced with this challenge, manufacturers are looking for solutions. Heliotherm plans to launch a new air-to-air heat pump model next year that can temporarily shut itself off to protect against storms. “If a storm comes, we can shut it down and then reopen it later,”, explains Bangheri. “We are learning to design heat pumps for the future.”

An extreme climate that is challenging current heat pumps

© Pixabay/josealbafotos

Wind isn't the only challenge heat pumps will have to face. More extreme climate scenarios could well challenge these systems in the near future.

Richard Lowes, a researcher at the Regulatory Assistance Project, a nonprofit specializing in energy, is particularly interested in one alarming scenario: the possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This system of ocean currents plays a crucial role in distributing heat from southern regions to the north, significantly influencing the climate in North America and Europe.

According to a study published last year, this collapse could occur as early as 2025, although some analyses suggest it may not begin until later this century. The consequences would be dramatic: an average drop in temperature of up to 8°C in Europe and 3 degrees in North America.

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“That would be quite significant”, Lowes points out. In such a scenario, heat pumps designed to operate at minimum outdoor temperatures of -10°C could prove insufficient.

However, Lowes qualifies his statement. If the AMOC were to collapse, the problems would be much more serious than simply the inefficiency of heat pumps.

© Martin Fuchs/Pixabay

Paradoxically, climate change should make winters milder overall. But beware of preconceived ideas: according to Duncan Callaway, professor of energy and resources at the University of Berkeley, the coldest days, for example in California, will probably be just as cold as ;#8217;today’today. “Extreme heat events will be more problematic”, he points out, emphasizing that cooling technologies will be in high demand.

That's where air-source heat pumps could come into their own. Unlike air-source heat pumps, they can provide both heating and cooling. That versatility could prove valuable in an increasingly unpredictable climate.

A Hope in Sight

Despite these challenges, experts remain optimistic. Callaway says climate change is unlikely to stop heat pumps from working. “It's more a question of system design and what contingencies you're preparing for”, he explains. Bangheri stresses the importance of thinking about climate change scenarios now. Having additional capacity or backup technologies could help prevent a decarbonized heating system from becoming vulnerable. Still, heat pumps installed previously could prove ineffective as climate change intensifies.

While they are still an excellent solution, the future of heat pumps in France and elsewhere will depend on our ability to anticipate and adapt to future climate change. It is now up to manufacturers, researchers and policy makers to work together to ensure that these promising technologies remain sufficiently suited to the extreme weather conditions of the future.

• Increasingly high winds threaten the efficiency of heat pumps, requiring technological adaptations
• Extreme climate scenarios, such as the collapse of the AMOC, could render some current installations obsolete
• Despite these challenges, heat pumps remain promising, particularly for their versatility

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