Hezbollah weakened, Turkey strengthened against Iran

Photo: Turkey Press Service via Agence France-Presse The presidents of Turkey and Egypt, two Sunni states, during the Egyptian leader's visit to Ankara in September 2024.

Anne Chaon – Agence France-Presse in Istanbul

Published yesterday at 18:02

• Middle East

A virulent critic of Israeli operations in Gaza, Sunni Turkey has remained very measured since the start of Israeli attacks in Lebanon against the Shiite Hezbollah and the death of its first leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

For analysts interviewed by AFP, this unusual restraint betrays, behind the caution, a discreet satisfaction at seeing Tehran and its auxiliaries weakened in the region.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is worried about seeing “Lebanon and the Lebanese people targeted by the policy of genocide, occupation and invasion led by Israel since October 7,” the date of the Hamas attack on southern Israel, has not said a word about Hezbollah’s losses.

Only its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, revealing that he met Nasrallah shortly after the start of the war in Gaza, spoke of “a major figure for the region, especially Lebanon, whose void will be difficult to fill.”

Because Ankara does not forget the role played by the Lebanese Shiite militia and Iran in saving the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad nor the chaos that this war has created on its doorstep, projecting millions of refugees onto its soil.

This is even the reason why President Erdoğan is trying to renew ties with Bashar al-Assad.

“Turkey and Hezbollah are not on the same page regionally, especially in Syria, where the latter has supported the regime and been complicit in Assad's war crimes,” notes Özgür Ünlühisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund. “Even though opinions are divided in Turkey, Hezbollah's losses are clearly less of a concern than Hamas's,” because the vast majority of Palestinians are Sunni Muslims like Erdoğan.

200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000

For Gönul Tol, Turkey director of the Middle East Institute in Washington, “only a minority of Islamists” in Turkey regret “the weakening of the axis of resistance” to Israel, promoted by Iran with its affiliates in the region (Hezbollah, Shiite factions in Iraq and Houthis in Yemen), even though the majority of Turks are openly pro-Palestinian.

Although still difficult to measure, “the prolonged weakening of Iran and its Shiite allies would strengthen Turkey's dominant position in at least two theaters, Iraq and Syria,” she continues.

Read also

• Iran fired dozens of missiles at Israel in response to the assassination of its allies
• From prayer to cries of joy, Iranian missiles provoke divergent reactions in Jerusalem
• “There is no one left”: in Lebanon, entire families decimated by Israeli strikes
• Video | Why is the State of Israel attacking Lebanon?

“Sunni actor”

Because even if Erdoğan prefers to present himself as “leader of the Muslim world”, “since the war in Syria, Turkey has emerged as a de facto Sunni actor in the region”, with its 85 million inhabitants, facing Shiite Iran, she further emphasizes.

“The decapitation of Hezbollah leads to a reduction in the influence of Turkey's main rival in the region, and it will not regret that,” confirms Asli Aydintasbas, a Turkey specialist at the Brookings Institution.

“But Ankara is being cautious in its actions and words. Relations with Iran remain sensitive. And Turkey is clearly worried about a regional escalation and a full-scale war between Iran and Israel, which it will do everything to stay away from,” she adds.

For Sinan Ciddi, a research associate at the Foundation for Democracy (FFD) in Washington, “Erdoğan is instead seeking a broader post-conflict coordination role in Gaza, for Turkey and Egypt, two Sunni states, such as security agreements and for the reconstruction” of the Palestinian territory.

Hence the recent visit, in early September, of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to Ankara, he recalls, who five years ago was treated as a “tyrant” and “murderer” by the Turkish president.

A member of NATO, Turkey has continued to condemn the Israeli operations in Gaza launched in retaliation for the Hamas attack on October 7. It has suspended its trade with Israel and joined the genocide proceedings against Israel initiated by South Africa before the International Court of Justice.