IAEA chief expected in Iran for crucial nuclear talks

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, is expected in Iran on Wednesday for crucial talks on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, warning the day before his trip that Tehran's room for maneuver was shrinking.

His visit comes two days after the new defense minister of Israel — Iran's sworn enemy — warned that Tehran was “more exposed than ever to strikes on its nuclear facilities.”

Israel has for years accused Iran of seeking nuclear weapons, which Tehran has always denied.

The two enemies have exchanged missile fire in recent months at a time of high tensions in the Middle East due to Israel's war against the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, two Islamist movements allied with Iran.

“The room for maneuver is starting to shrink,” Mr. Grossi warned in an interview with AFP on Tuesday, adding that it was “imperative to find ways to arrive at diplomatic solutions.”

The IAEA is authorized to carry out inspections in Iran, he said, “but we need to see more. Given the scale, depth and ambition of the Iranian program, we need to find ways to give the agency more visibility,” he added.

– Trump's warning –

Mr. Grossi's visit also comes a week after Donald Trump won the US presidential election, having championed a policy of so-called “maximum pressure” against Iran during his first term (2017-2021).

US President-elect Donald Trump at an election night event in West Palm Beach, Florida, US, on November 6, 2024 © AFP – Jim WATSON

M. Trump said last week that he was not seeking to harm Iran and instead wanted Iranians to have “a very prosperous country,” while insisting that Tehran could “not have a nuclear weapon.”

In 2015, Iran and major powers including the United States reached an agreement in Vienna after 21 months of negotiations.

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The text provided for an easing of international sanctions targeting Tehran in exchange for guarantees that it would not seek to acquire a nuclear weapon.

But Mr. Trump unilaterally withdrew his country from the agreement in 2018 and reinstated sanctions against Iran.

Since then, Iran has significantly increased its reserves of materials enriched to 60%, close to the 90% needed to develop a nuclear weapon, according to the IAEA. The nuclear deal capped this rate at 3.65%.

It is in this context that Mr. Grossi returns to Iran after a first visit this year in May.

In a statement, the IAEA said it would hold “high-level meetings with the Iranian government” and conduct “technical discussions on all aspects.”

– Cameras Unplugged –

Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, who wants sanctions relief against his country to boost the economy, is in favor of new negotiations to revive the deal.

Massoud Pezeshkian, President of Iran, speaks during the United Nations General Assembly at U.N. Headquarters in New York, September 24, 2024 © GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA – Michael M. Santiago

All attempts have failed in recent years with the signatory countries (France, the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States, Russia and China).

Iran has significantly reduced inspections of its nuclear sites since 2021. Surveillance cameras have been disconnected and the accreditation of a group of experts has been withdrawn.

The foundations of Iran's nuclear program date back to the late 1950s, when the United States signed a civil cooperation agreement with then-Iranian leader Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.

In 1970, Iran ratified the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which requires signatory states to declare and place their nuclear materials under IAEA control.

Several Iranian officials have publicly questioned in recent years the question of possessing a nuclear bomb as a deterrent, amid heightened tensions with Israel, the Islamic Republic's sworn enemy.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in power since 1989 and the ultimate decision-maker in the country's sensitive issues, particularly nuclear issues, banned any use of atomic weapons in a religious decree (fatwa).

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