In Georgia, legislative elections crucial for its European future

Georgians are set to take part in parliamentary elections on Saturday that are crucial for the future of their country, which is divided between a pro-European opposition and a ruling party accused of pro-Russian authoritarianism.

Recent polls suggest that an unprecedented alliance of opposition parties could defeat Georgian Dream, the conservative party of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who has been pulling the strings of power in the former Soviet republic of four million people in the Caucasus for the past decade.

Among the quartet of opposition parties involved is the United National Movement of imprisoned former president Mikheil Saakashvili, Mr. Ivanishvili's sworn enemy.

But the outcome of the vote remains difficult to predict, with many respondents saying they were undecided or refusing to give their preference.

Polling stations will be open from 4:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. GMT, with the first exit polls expected when they close.

This is a proportional vote for the renewal of the 150 seats in Parliament. It will be monitored by observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

– Risk of unrest –

Brussels has warned that the outcome of the vote will determine Georgia's chances of joining the EU, which has enshrined this aspiration in its constitution.

Georgian billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, head of the ruling Georgian Dream party, at the final campaign rally in Tbilisi on October 23, 2024 © AFP – Giorgi ARJEVANIDZE

“If the ruling party tries to stay in power regardless of the election result, there is a risk of post-election unrest,” warns for his part by expert Gela Vasadze from the Center for Strategic Analysis on Georgia.

If the opposition alliance wins, it has promised electoral and judicial reforms and the repeal of recently enacted discredited laws.

It plans to form a coalition government, push through these reforms and then hold a new election within a year to better reflect the will of the voters.

This country, long considered a democratic bubble in the former USSR, is regularly shaken by demonstrations.

The Georgian Dream, in power since 2012, is accused of having embarked on a spiral towards the establishment of a pro-Russian authoritarian regime and of distancing Georgia from the European Union and NATO, which it also aims to join.

Some of its leaders are very critical of the West. Bidzina Ivanishvili called it a “world war party”, which would treat Georgia, its victim, as “cannon fodder”.

This former Soviet republic bordering the Black Sea remains very marked by a brief war in 2008 with the Russian army.

At the end of this war, Russia installed military bases in two Georgian separatist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose unilaterally proclaimed independence it recognized.

In this context, the ruling party campaigned by presenting itself as the only one capable of preventing a supposed “Ukrainization” of Georgia.

The government says it wants to obtain three-quarters of the seats in Parliament, which would allow it to modify the Constitution and, under its plan, to ban pro-Western opposition parties.

– Laws criticized –

The government brought in tens of thousands of its supporters, including civil servants, from across the country by bus on Wednesday night for a rally in the centre of the capital Tbilisi.

A young woman holds a placard in favour of Georgia's accession to the European Union during a rally in Tbilisi on 20 October 2024 © AFP – Vano SHLAMOV

On this occasion, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze assured that he wanted integration into the EU, while accusing European leaders of “injustice”, “rejection of Christian dogmas” and “lack of respect for other sovereignties”.

On Sunday, tens of thousands of pro-European Georgians, especially young people, demonstrated in Tbilisi.

Georgia was rocked in May by mass protests against a “foreign influence” law, inspired by Russian “foreign agents” legislation used to crush civil society.

Brussels froze Georgia’s EU accession process in the wake of this, and the United States imposed sanctions on Georgian officials.

Tbilisi responded by threatening to “review” its diplomatic relations with Washington.

Another source of tension with the West: the recent promulgation of a law severely restricting the rights of LGBT+ people in Georgia, a country with an Orthodox Christian tradition where hostility towards sexual minorities remains strong.

The Kremlin, for its part, denounced on Friday attempts at “interference” by the West in the legislative elections. “They are trying to twist Tbilisi's arm, to dictate their conditions,” said the presidential spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.

Russia remains a historic player in the Caucasus. Mr. Ivanishvili made his fortune there after the fall of the USSR.

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