In Michigan, the presidential election is also a vote for or against the electric vehicle

Photo: Charly Triballeau Agence France-Presse UAW union members prepare to hand out Democratic tandem signs on October 16 in Warren, Michigan.

John Biers – Agence France-Presse in Detroit

Posted at 8:14 AM

• United States

The race for the White House in the key state of Michigan, the historic heart of the American automobile industry, could be decided by how voters view the electric transition. Threat or opportunity ?

Former Republican President Donald Trump believes that the development of electric vehicles represents an existential risk.

For her part, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris has promised major investments in favor of electric vehicles, and has received the support of the powerful union of American Auto Workers (UAW).

Which candidate will win favor with voters in this key northern state, won by Donald Trump in 2016 and then Joe Biden in 2020, could depend on the promises made by the electric vehicle.

Its evolution has been somewhat eventful so far: automakers initially hit the ground running, launching costly projects to convert or build factories for electric vehicles and their batteries.

But weaker-than-anticipated demand has prompted some, such as General Motors and Ford, to delay projects while saying they are confident of their future success.

“It really feels like our jobs are at stake. Donald Trump doesn’t care about our jobs,” says Hazen Turner, an employee of Stellantis (Jeep, Chrysler, etc.) who is campaigning with UAW. “Kamala, she cares,” he adds.

On the other hand, Brian Pannebecker. He runs the “Autoworkers for Trump” group on Facebook and believes that a Kamala Harris victory would spell the end of Michigan’s auto industry within a decade, making way for “electric China.”

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400 billion

The Biden-Harris administration has stepped up measures to accelerate the electric transition in the United States. Currently, electric vehicles represent about 8% of sales in the country, up from just 1% in 2019, according to the specialist firm Cox Automotive.

It required manufacturers to market vehicles with very low greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change. Since then, they have added electric and hybrid models to their traditional ranges.

One of the emblematic measures of this administration is the “Inflation Reduction Act”, a law providing $400 billion for projects related to the energy transition, including tax credits for buyers of electric vehicles.

Michigan has received, to this point, more than $26 billion, including $500 million for the retrofitting of a General Motors plant to manufacture electric vehicles, with 700 jobs at stake.

Donald Trump praised the achievements of billionaire Elon Musk, owner of the electric vehicle specialist Tesla and a very active Republican activist, but he has not stopped criticizing the Biden-Harris program in matter.

At a campaign rally in Michigan in September, the former president said, “All these cars are going to be made in China.”

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The Republican also assures us: Kamala Harris will force consumers to buy electric vehicles.

His rival accused him in return of distorting his remarks, and insists that the Republican “belittles” American workers.

Despite harsh rhetoric toward electric vehicles, industry experts in Michigan don’t expect a complete backpedal if Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Particularly because a significant portion of the IRA funds have gone to Republican-majority states like Tennessee and South Carolina.

“The prospects for a dramatic reversal are not in sight,” said Mike Jackson, an official with the Equipment Suppliers Association. “There’s already a lot of money invested,” he said.

Charlie Chesbrough, an economist at Cox Automotive, warns that letting the electric transition go through would mean that American legacy automakers are limited to producing pickups for local consumption.

Republicans and Democrats are also at odds over tariffs, Chesbrough notes.

Economists are skeptical of the Republican's announcements that he wants to impose extreme tariffs to encourage foreign automakers to set up factories in the United States. According to them, such investments require years of planning.