In Ottawa, lessons from the new American political era

Photo: Julia Demaree Nikhinson Associated Press By using channels outside of traditional media, Mr. Trump has also successfully tapped into a segment of the electorate looking to move away from the status quo.

With a federal election due next year, political parties in Ottawa are already learning lessons from Donald Trump’s return to the White House — a re-election characterized by a rejection of the status quo and a break with traditional campaign strategies.

More than 73 million Americans voted for the former Republican president in the Nov. 5 election, despite his conviction on 43 criminal counts and his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol.

Many analysts point to Trump’s targeted messaging on the cost of living, a major concern for most Americans. Two-thirds of voters rated the U.S. economy as “not very good” or “bad,” according to exit polls — and of those, 69 percent voted for the Republican candidate.

In Ottawa, a senior government source said he had been closely following the various campaign strategies in the United States ahead of the upcoming federal election.

“The main theme of the [U.S.] campaign was really the economy. “We're going to have to have a more focused message so that people can feel that they're in a better position than they were five or six years ago,” she agrees.

An Ipsos poll released in September found that 47% of Canadians consider the cost of living to be their top economic priority.

The New Democratic Party (NDP) also recognizes the need to redouble its efforts on this issue. “What we’re seeing is that people are looking for change. They don’t want the status quo anymore, they want new approaches and a helping hand to get through inflation,” explains a NDP strategist who is not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) declined the interview request from Devoir.

Campaigning differently

Canadians' concerns about the economy are not new, and the Trudeau government has been working to address them for more than a year. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has even been holding weekly press briefings on “Canada’s economic plan” since last year.

However, the outcome of the American campaign also shows that “traditional” ways of communicating are no longer reaching the population as much, notes Jeremy Ghio, a former Liberal strategist in Ottawa.

According to him, one of the keys to Mr. Trump’s success was his ability to speak “simply” to voters, without resorting to “big ideas” or announcements that are often “difficult to follow.”

“The economic recovery in the G7 countries has gone relatively well, but people don’t see these big concepts. What they see is the grocery bill, the rent bill and the gas bill,” he illustrates.

By using channels outside of traditional media, Mr. Trump has also managed to reach out to a segment of the electorate looking to move away from the status quo.

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Candidate Trump notably participated in the very popular podcast of Joe Rogan, host and commentator of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). The nearly three-hour episode has exceeded 47 million views on YouTube. He has also had a strong presence on the X network thanks to the support of its owner, Elon Musk.

“I was one of those who believed that the Democrats' strategy for getting out the vote was better: knocking on doors, making phone calls… By traditional standards, their organization was better than that of the Republicans. But it is clear that the mobilization of the vote that worked was that of the Republicans,” underlines Jeremy Ghio.

“That's why I think the end of traditional politics has come. For me, it's going to be a turning point,” he adds.

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A feeling of disaffection

In light of the results in our southern neighbours, the former Liberal strategist believes that the Trudeau government and the NDP would now benefit from undertaking a significant “work of introspection” with regard to voters’ expectations.

“What Donald Trump has managed to do, and to a certain extent, what Pierre Poilievre is managing to do, is to take advantage of a certain feeling of disaffection, to speak to a part of the population that no longer feels heard and that does not feel represented,” he suggests.

Jeremy Ghio cites the example of President Joe Biden, who, during the campaign, called Donald Trump’s supporters “scum.”

“If the parties that are a little further to the left continue to think that because we drape ourselves in of ideals and virtue, people will listen to us, and that we have the right to ignore certain citizens, we only reinforce a feeling of marginalization,” he believes.

According to our senior government source, Donald Trump’s re-election is indeed a reminder that “no one should be taken for granted.”

A change of leader

After current U.S. President Joe Biden decided to withdraw from the presidential race earlier this summer, many drew parallels with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s situation, who has been lagging in national polls for more than a year.

Even though Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has taken over the race due to Mr. Biden’s unpopularity, it won’t have been enough for voters.

In Ottawa, our government source believes this could be viewed favorably eye. “I think it will calm down a few people in the caucus,” she says.

Last month, a letter signed by 24 Liberal MPs asked the Prime Minister to make a choice about his future. The Liberal leader then reiterated that he had no intention of leaving his post.

For her part, Mireille Lalancette, a professor of political communication at the Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, argues that Ms. Harris did not have enough time (four months) to campaign.

“Let's also not forget that Trump did not stop campaigning between his defeat and his re-election. He was always present in the public space and in the media to criticize the Democrats and their approach. This also counts and weighs in the balance,” she says in an email to Devoir.

Former Liberal strategist Jeremy Ghio argues that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should have already stepped aside to give a potential replacement a real chance.

“Joe Biden did a huge disservice to his candidate by dropping out of the race too late. And I think Justin Trudeau is going to have a similar impact. It's a little too late for him to drop out, in my opinion. And to ignore people's fatigue with the prime minister is a fundamental mistake.”