In Tunisia, a presidential election without much suspense where the incumbent Saied is the favorite

Tunisians will elect their president on Sunday in a poll where the outgoing head of state Kais Saied is the favourite and who arouses little enthusiasm among a population more concerned by its economic difficulties than by “Authoritarian drift” denounced by civil society.

Polling stations will be open from 8:00 a.m. (7:00 a.m. GMT) to 6:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. GMT) to welcome 9.7 million registered voters, according to the electoral authority Isie, which expects preliminary results “at the latest” on Wednesday.

In the cradle in 2011 of the democratic revolts of the Arab Spring, only two candidates — considered by analysts to be second-rate — were authorized to face Mr. Saied, 66, out of an initial 17 candidates, rejected by the Isie for alleged irregularities.

The first is a former deputy of the pan-Arab left, Zouhair Maghzaoui, 59, and the second, Ayachi Zammel, a 47-year-old liberal industrialist, unknown to the general public but imprisoned after his candidacy was confirmed. early September.

In less than a month, this former MP, supported by left-wing forces and figures from the former parliamentary majority, was sentenced to 14 years and two months in prison on suspicion of false sponsorships, in three separate proceedings. His team called on citizens to “go to the polls en masse”, urging the Isie “not to manipulate the Tunisian vote”.

Carrier of a sovereignist left-wing project similar to Mr. Saied, whom he supported until recently, Mr. Maghzaoui denounced before the election “a record equal to zero” of the outgoing government, also calling for a mobilization of voters.

– “Locked” ballot –

Soldiers deliver ballot boxes on the eve of Tunisia's presidential election, in Ariana, October 5, 2024 © AFP – FETHI BELAID

The president “locked down the election” and should “win it hands down,” says International Crisis Group expert Michaël Ayari.

The very selection of candidates has been contested for the high number of sponsorships required, the imprisonment of known potential candidates, and the ouster by the ISIE of the president's strongest rivals.

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Mr. Saïed, elected in 2019 with nearly 73% of the vote (and 58% turnout), was still popular when this constitutional law specialist with an incorruptible image seized full powers in the summer of 2021, promising order after years of political instability.

Three years later, many Tunisians criticize him for having devoted his energy above all to settling scores with his opponents, in particular the Islamo-conservative Ennahdha party, which dominated the decade of democracy following the overthrow of the dictator Ben Ali in 2011.

An “authoritarian drift” of power has been denounced since 2021 by Tunisian and foreign NGOs and the opposition, including leading figures such as the leader Ennahdha's Rached Ghannouchi, and at the other end of the spectrum, Abir Moussi, a nostalgic passionnaria of the Ben Ali era, are in prison.

All denounce the dismantling of the countervailing powers established in 2011 and the stifling of civil society with the arrest of trade unionists, activists, lawyers and political columnists.

According to Human Rights Watch, “more than 170 people are currently detained for political reasons or for exercising their fundamental rights”.

– “La traversée” –

Protesters in Tunis against President Kais Saied, October 4, 2024, a few days before the presidential election © AFP – FETHI BELAID

Nearly 800 activists marched in Tunis on Friday to denounce “trampled freedoms”, calling for a boycott of a “farce” election.

“Abstention is expected to be high” because “citizens are not very passionate about this election”, as in late 2022, early 2023, when the participation rate reached only 11% in the legislative elections, predicts expert Ayari.

Mohamed, a 22-year-old unemployed graduate, met in a working-class neighborhood, does not feel concerned by the vote: “it is useless”.

“The collapse in participation is the strongest indicator of the discouragement of Tunisians towards their leaders,” Pierre Vermeren, a French expert on the Maghreb, told AFP.

Saying he wants to “save Tunisia from traitors” under foreign influence, President Saied still enjoys “significant support among the working classes,” according to Mr. Ayari, but he is “criticized for his inability to get the country out of a deep economic crisis,” marked by a plummeting purchasing power.

On Thursday, Mr. Saied called for a “massive vote” because, he promised, after “a long war against the forces of conspiracy” that had “infiltrated many public services and disrupted hundreds of projects, the journey will begin” towards “the construction of a new Tunisia”.

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