Iran's attack on Israel: a show of force, but not conflagration ?

The Israeli government has not yet spoken out, but the Israeli army has announced that it will a "retaliation" after Iran's attack on the Jewish state. Téhéran promised him a "severe response" in the event of retaliation. But despite this These declarations, a conflagration is judged "unlikely".

The essentials

• After Iran's attack on Israel and the sending of 300 projectiles, mainly drones, into Saturday night à On Sunday, Israeli army chief of staff Herzi Halevi promised a response ;quot; this Monday. The government has assembled its war cabinet, but has not yet made a statement.
• The Iranian president said: this Tuesday, April 16, that an action by Israel against the interests of its country would call for a “response” vère".
• A response from Israel seems inevitable after the Iranian offensive, but it may not lead to Iran's offensive. a conflagration. Call &agrav; avoid any escalation by his ally Historically, the United States, the Jewish state could target intermediaries close to Iran and with whom hostilities have already been ongoing. agrave; été attacked, like the Lebanese Hezbollah or the Houthis of Yemen, rather than attacking head-on Iran. But no hypothesis has been formally ruled out.
• The hypothesis of an escalation of the conflict does not represent any interest for Iran or for Israel. ;euml;l. The first would find himself alone. facing Israel's allies and & the West in the event of entry into the conflict, while the latter could lose the support of its most serious and powerful ally. by going against American directives.

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13:30 – The UN accuses Iran and Israel of having "rapeé the right à life"

UN experts condemn Iran's attack on Israel on Saturday April 13 as much as Israel's attack on the embassy from Iran to Syria on April 1. Both attacks "violate the right à life and must cease immediately" they declaredé in a press release. They specify that the Jewish State has not exercised a right of self-defense when launching the attack in Syria, because he did not present himself proof that Tehran was committing an "armed attack" against Israel, as international law to invoke the right ;agrave; self-defense. "Israel’s attack therefore violated Israel’ the prohibition of the use & armed force against another Éstate" according to the UN which adds that "illegal force wasé used not only against Iranian armed forces but also against Syrian territory.” The same experts believe that Iran was also not in a situation of self-defense when it launched its attack. the offensive.

11:51 – A "symbolic" but failed by Iran

Iran's attack was "à& ;nbsp;both prepared, calculated, measured in terms of means" according to Bertrand Besancenot, Middle East expert and former French ambassador to Qatar and Saudi Arabia interviewed  on BFM Businesswhich underlines that "the impact in terms of victims and destruction wasé very weak" with an injured child, but no dead found. According to the former French representative, the offensive 'was above all "symbolic" : "The whole idea behind this operation is to try to restore the credibility of of Tehran on its ability to of deterrence". But the objective was not achieved. reached according to Israel which indicates having intercepted 99% of projectiles.

Israel's defense, permitted by its Western allies, is a hard blow for Tehran whose strength dissuasive action is taken into account wrong. This attack, which was supposed to be symbolic, ultimately turned against Iran according to the analysis of Bertrand Besancenot who believes that “Iran is very ;far from having an arsenal that would be credible for implementing a nuclear weapon.

11:09 – Israeli minister calls on 32 countries sanction Iran

Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, ;nbsp;addressedé a letter à 32 of his counterparts, including the Frenchman Stéphane S&eac;journ&eac;, in which he asks for “Sanctions be imposed on Iran's missile project and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps be declared independent.” terrorist organization".

10:45 – Can Israel retaliate against Iran without igniting the conflict ?

If an attack by Israel against Iran's proxies such as Lebanese Hezbollah or Yemen's Houthis is a possible response, the H' eacute;breu might want to take the blame directly. Tehran. But then could it avoid the conflagration ? Yes, by adopting certain strategies according to specialists, but this supposes giving up all ground military offensive in Iran. "It is à “it is almost certain that there will be no open military response from the IDF on Iranian soil,” the deputy director also confirmed. of the Bruno Tertrais Foundation for Strategic Research at Parisien.

But other options are possible: "There may be masked, discreet responses to Iranian installations or forces in the region" ; during air response for example. General J&rôme Pellistrandri, Defense consultant for BFMTV, believes that Israel could "neutralize nuclear facilities on Iranian territory" to "slow down the nuclear program" of Iran without escalating. On the attack on nuclear installations the opinion of Brunon Tertrais diverges, since according to the latter this would bring the two countries into the "worst-case scenario& quot;.

10:11 – The flaring up of the conflict judged "unlikely"

According to certain specialists, the flaring up of the conflict after Iran's attack on Israel is a hypothesis &amp; ;quot;unlikely”. The two countries face à deterrent elements. "Iran would lose in a direct conventional confrontation involving Israel, its regional allies and the West" analyzes the researcher at the Center for Security Studies from the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), Héloïse Fayet, with Libération< /em>. While Israel has to deal with the United States and it seems difficult for the Jewish state to free itself from American directives after having controlled the Iranian attack largely thanks to the support of this ally historical. Some, like Thierry Arnaud, international politics columnist for BFMTV, see in the response time d'Israël à the offensive the influence of the American position calling for Avoid any escalation.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raïssi assuredé in a press release published this Tuesday morning that "the slightest action" Israel's attack against the interests of its country would result in "a harsh response" of Iran. For the moment, the Israeli government has still not officially announced the decision. a response.

08:28 – Iran expresses a "will´ restraint", but warns against a response

After its attack, Iran calls for further action.  "retention". Iranian and Chinese foreign ministers exchanged talks and the Beijing government has clarified that that Téhéran had new expression his "willé restraint" wishing not to see the situation "very sensitive" in the region is getting worse. Iranian Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, however, warned that an attack on Iran, its security would be jeopardized. or its interests would call for a “decisive, immediate and significant” response. A message addressed to &agrav; Israel, but accompanied by a warning for the United States.

08 :11 – Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah or the Houthis of Yemen… What target for an Israeli response ?

Israelël's response has already begun promised by the chief of staff of the IDF army seems being considered by the Israeli government, but the modalities s of the latter have not yet been decided. They could, however, respect the injunctions of the main ally. from Iran: the United States which, like many other countries, has called for &agrav; to avoid escalation and declared not wanting to extend the war to other countries Iran. In fact, how can we respond without raising fears of the conflict flaring up ? Different military strategists are considering the possibility of that an attack be carried out against Iran's supporters and intermediaries, more than against the Tehran regime. Lebanese Hezbollah, close to Iran but also to Hamas, could be in the sights. Exchanges of fire took place at several times between Israel and Lebanon since the attack of October 7. Another possible target: the Houthi rebels of Yemen who operate in the Red Sea where they attacked commercial vessels operated by Israel.