Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip soon?

Photo: Leo Correa Associated Press If implemented, this reshaping of the Gaza map would lead to “massive overpopulation” in the south of the enclave, says Palestinian journalist Asri Mohammed Ahmed Fayadh.

Magdaline Boutros

Published at 5:13 p.m.

• Middle East

Is the Israeli military planning to stay in Gaza for the long haul? ? There are growing indications that the Netanyahu government has put into motion aspects of the “generals’ plan”—a strategy to empty the northern part of the enclave and establish a military zone there. Some Israelis are even dreaming of establishing settlements there—with a view of the sea.

For Aaron David Miller, a former analyst for the Middle East peace process at the U.S. State Department, it is clear that part of the generals’ plan—also known as the “Eiland plan”—has been deployed. “There is no doubt about it,” he told Le Devoir.

This controversial plan — developed and made public in September by retired Israeli generals — provides for the expulsion of the more than 200,000 Palestinian civilians still in the north of the enclave to move them to the south of the Netzarim corridor, a militarized strip 4 km wide and 7 km long built in recent months by Israeli forces to divide the Gaza Strip in two.

Under the plan, a closed military zone would be created in the north, encompassing about a third of the territory of the enclave. All humanitarian aid, food, water, and gasoline supplies would then be cut off to force the surrender of Hamas militants and the displacement of civilians.

They want to create settlements. They say it, they do it, and [Western governments] pretend not to understand.

— Francesca Albanese

According to Palestinian journalist Asri Mohammed Ahmed Fayadh, the blockade currently imposed by Israeli forces around the Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia and Jabalia refugee camp areas in the north of the enclave is the first phase of this plan. Virtually no humanitarian aid, water or food has been delivered there since October 5, and evacuation orders have multiplied. The second phase would be to empty Gaza City, he predicts.

“The creation of this empty zone will strengthen the security of the Israeli communities of Sderot and Ashkelon,” located on the edge of Gaza, he analyzes for Le Devoir. If implemented, this reshaping of the map of Gaza, “in accordance with Israeli desires,” will lead to “massive overpopulation” in the south of the enclave, he continues.

This plan, born “out of the vengeful madness that occurred after October 7, 2023,” the day Hamas militants surged into Israel and killed more than 1,200 people, would represent “the most significant event in demographic change since the setback of 1967,” he warns, referring to the exodus of 300,000 Palestinians (known as Al-Naksa — or the relapse) that followed the Six-Day War.

“There is a desire to stay”

Although he doubts that Israel will succeed in emptying all of northern Gaza, former American adviser and negotiator Aaron David Miller acknowledges that the Israeli army is not about to leave the enclave. “But we don't know yet at what level [she will maintain her presence]. “

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Even if Hamas is defeated, the terrorist group is still capable of operating as an “insurgency,” which makes it still a threat to Israel. But it is impossible to imagine the Palestinian Authority (which governs the West Bank) or an international force mandated by the UN or by Arab countries taking over security. “So that leaves only one option,” he sums up.

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In September, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was examining the generals' plan — promoted by the most extremist fringe of his party, but which does not have unanimous support within the Israeli population.

According to the daily newspaper Times of Israel, after being dismissed from his post on November 5, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant—at odds with Netanyahu over the strategy to be deployed in Gaza—told hostage families that the army had achieved most of its objectives in the Palestinian enclave. “There is nothing left to do in Gaza. […] I fear that we are only staying there because there is a desire to stay there,” he reportedly said.

In a hard-hitting editorial, the Israeli center-left daily Haaretzwrote last weekend that “the Israeli army is carrying out an ethnic cleansing operation in the northern Gaza Strip.” For several weeks, the newspaper has been documenting the Israeli army’s construction of “long-term infrastructure,” such as military posts and roads, suggesting a military presence that would last until at least the end of 2025.

Settlements ?

Some of the newly paved roads lead to former Israeli settlements. In 2005, Israel closed all 21 settlements in Gaza and relocated their approximately 9,000 residents. But the possibility of a prolonged military presence in the enclave is now fueling the hopes of many far-right Israelis who dream of reestablishing themselves in Gaza.

In March, one of the movement’s standard-bearers, Daniela Weiss of the Nachala organization, told the BBC: “I have friends in Tel Aviv who say to me, ‘Don’t forget to save me a plot of land near the coast in Gaza — it’s beautiful, with beautiful golden sand.’”

“The Israelis are talking about it, but I don’t think it’s going to happen right away,” says Aaron David Miller. “But can it change? ? Sure.” Netanyahu will wait to see what the new Trump administration’s position is on the issue before acting, he believes. On Tuesday, the Republican announced that he would nominate Mike Huckabee, a staunch defender of Israeli settlements, as the next U.S. ambassador to Israel.

For Francesca Albanese, the United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967, there is no doubt that Israel will try to appropriate Palestinian land.

“When there is an opportunity, the Israeli government pushes Palestinians off their land, out of their homes. They destroy what they can to take what the Palestinians left behind. That’s what’s happening in Gaza,” she told Le Devoir in an interview at Oxfam’s offices in Montreal last week.

“They want to create settlements. They say it, they do it, and [Western governments] pretend not to understand,” she said indignantly.

Ultimatum on humanitarian aid

The United States’ 30-day ultimatum for Israel to dramatically increase aid to Gaza expired Tuesday. Although the Jewish state has still not allowed the 350 trucks of aid per day it has demanded, the Biden administration has announced that it will not carry out its threat to cut off military aid to Israel. “The actions that we’ve seen, we think are moving in the right direction,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said Tuesday. That same day, Israel announced the opening of a new humanitarian crossing. On Thursday, the UN said that six attempts to deliver “life-saving aid” into northern Gaza had been blocked since Tuesday.