Israel's Strikes on Hezbollah: Iranian Retaliation to Come ?

Israel continues its strikes against Lebanon this Monday, September 30, and says it is targeting Hezbollah targets. Leaders of Hezbollah, Palestinian Hamas and an Iranian movement have died. Iran has promised retaliation, fueling fears of a generalized conflict in the region.

Israeli strikes against Lebanon continue this Monday, September 30. They are escalating yet again since several shots were fired on Beirut, the Lebanese capital, very early in the morning, a first since the attack of October 7. The strikes targeting Beirut and its suburbs have led to the death of several leaders of pro-Iranian movements since Saturday, September 28, including those of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leader in Lebanon Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin. An Iranian leader was also killed in an Israeli strike, Abbas Nilforoushan, the deputy for operations of the head of the Revolutionary Guards. In response, Tehran has promised retaliation, but the Iranian vice president in charge of Strategic Affairs Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Iran's response “will come at the appropriate time.”

Hezbollah, deprived of its leader, has also promised to retaliate against the Hebrew state. The number two of the Islamist movement and Shiite paramilitary group considered terrorist, Nayim Kassem, assured that Hezbollah will continue to “support Gaza and protect Lebanon […] with the same objectives and plans as those established by Nasrallah.” The interim leader before the election of a new leader of the Islamist movement accuses Israel of “committing massacres in all regions of Lebanon” and of attacking civilians.

Israel, for its part, welcomed the results of its strikes on the movements it is fighting, particularly Hezbollah. While Hassan Nasrallah was the main target of the attacks carried out by Israel, the Hebrew state claimed to have killed several other “Hezbollah commanders and terrorists”. On Monday, September 30, the Israeli army declared that Israel “will continue to forcefully attack, damage and degrade Hezbollah's military capabilities and infrastructure in Lebanon.”

Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon mentioned

After the airstrikes, a ground operation by the Israeli army in Lebanon is feared. “As long as Hezbollah chooses the path of war, Israel has no other choice,” warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the UN General Assembly. Military operations will continue “until all our objectives are achieved,” he added, dashing hopes of a truce proposed on September 25 by France and the United States. The Israeli army has even said it is preparing for a possible ground incursion, which would be “as short” as possible, an Israeli security official assured. September 27th.

Israeli groups have reportedly gathered near the border with Lebanon, and IDF Chief of Staff Gen. Herzi Halevi told soldiers in a communications operation: “Your boots, the ones you're wearing, are going into enemy territory.” These are all signs of a potential ground invasion. The hypothesis is considered possible by several analysts: “The Israeli army almost always acts in two phases: an initial air phase, then a land phase, or air-land phase,” noted historian and former colonel Michel Goya to Parisien. “The land offensive is ready, the Merkava tanks are already at the border. And in my opinion, this offensive is going to take place.” estimated Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, president of the Mediterranean and Middle East Research and Studies Institute (Iremmo), on franceinfo.

Hezbollah, which has wielded considerable power in Beirut since its creation in the 1980s, also anticipates facing a ground incursion by Israeli forces, and the Islamist movement's interim leader said on September 30: “We are ready and prepared if Israel wants to launch a ground incursion. Israel will not achieve its objectives and we will win this fight.” assuring that Israel “will not be able to touch our military capabilities”.

The Israeli army launched its strikes on Lebanon after almost a year of exchanges of fire with Hezbollah. The Lebanese Islamist movement had opened a front against Israel since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip, mainly by firing rockets from the other side of the border, in support of its ally Hamas, after the attack of October 7, 2023 on Israeli soil. By attacking in turn, Israel wants to allow the return of tens of thousands of inhabitants of the north who had fled the Hezbollah fire. More than 1,500 people have since been killed in Lebanon, in addition to the tens of thousands displaced, according to Beirut. A toll heavier than that of the 33 days of war between Israel and the Lebanese formation in 2006. UNICEF was particularly alarmed by the “frightening pace” to which children are being killed since the intensification of Israeli bombings this week.

Towards a "total war" in the Middle East

Following Israeli strikes on Lebanon, including Beirut, the UN has launched food aid for one million Lebanese, as the “new escalation of the conflict this weekend has highlighted the need for an immediate humanitarian response”. In Iran, an enemy of Israel and which supports regional movements such as the Lebanese Hezbollah or the Palestinian Hamas, President Massoud Pezeshkian denounced a “flagrant war crime” and threatened the perpetrators of this “massacre” with a “just punishment”.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged both sides to “stop shooting” and President Joe Biden “asked the Pentagon to assess and adjust as necessary” the U.S. military presence in the Middle East, according to the White House. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati denounced a “genocidal war” led by Israel.  "The shockwave" caused by the war in Gaza threatens to push the entire Middle East "into the abyss", warned UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.  The Middle East is on the brink of "total war", he warned UN Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000

Latest Updates

“Hezbollah will continue with the same goals and plans as those set by Nasrallah. We will continue to support Gaza and defend Lebanon,” said Hezbollah's number two, Nayim Kassem, speaking on the Al-Manar movement's channel. The interim leader before the election of a new leader of the Islamist movement accuses Israel of “committing massacres in all regions of Lebanon.” and attacking civilians and accuses the United States of “participating in these massacres by supporting Israel.” The Hezbollah representative acknowledges that “the fight is likely to be long,” but he says he is “ready:” We are ready and prepared if Israel wants to launch a ground incursion. Israel will not achieve its objectives and we will win this fight. ” assuring that Israel “will not be able to touch “our military capabilities”.

10:32 – A speech by Hezbollah's number two

Hezbollah announced a speech by its number two, Naïm Qassem, this Monday. The same man is expected to take the lead of the pro-Iranian Islamist movement pending the election of Hassan Nasrallah's successor.

10:19 – 100,000 people to Lebanon via Syria

Israeli strikes push many people to leave Lebanon. "The number of people who have crossed the border into Syria from Lebanon to flee Israeli airstrikes has reached 100,000. The exodus continues," the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Filippo Grandi, said on the social network X. 

09:45 – Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon considered possible

As Israel has been carrying out airstrikes against Lebanon for the past week, the question of a possible ground offensive is being raised. The Israeli army indicates that it has regrouped troops near the Lebanese border in recent days and the IDF chief of staff, General Herzi Halevi, declared in a communications operation: “Your boots, the ones you are wearing, are going into enemy territory.” So many clues before a potential ground invasion. The hypothesis is considered possible by several analysts: “The Israeli army almost always acts in two phases: an initial air phase, then a land phase, or air-land phase,” noted historian and former colonel Michel Goya to the Parisien. “The land offensive is ready, the Merkava tanks are already at the border. And in my opinion, this offensive is going to take place.” estimated Jean-Paul Chagnollaud, president of the Mediterranean Middle East Research and Studies Institute (Iremmo), on franceinfo.

09:03 – The program of the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot in Lebanon

Jean-Noël Barrot, Minister of Foreign Affairs, arrived in Beirut, Lebanon on Sunday evening. He began his visit by announcing the delivery of "12 tons of medical equipment" to Lebanon that will "treat 1,000 seriously injured". Aid for which he was "thanked" by Lebanese Minister of Health Firass Abiad. Jean-Noël Barrot must now meet with local authorities. He is the first Western diplomat to visit Lebanon since the intensification of Israeli strikes and his arrival coincides with the death of a second French national in Lebanon.

08:23 – A three-day national mourning begins in Lebanon

This Monday, September 30, marks the beginning of a three-day national mourning in Lebanon after the death “as a martyr” of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah “who joins the list of those killed by the perfidious Israeli aggression against Lebanon” according to the official statement of the Lebanese government.

08:19 – Israel announces that it will continue “to attack with force”

The Israeli army announced the continuation of its strikes in Lebanon on Monday. “The air force's warplanes attacked dozens of targets of the terrorist organization Hezbollah in the Bekaa region of Lebanon,” the spokesman for the Civil Defense said on Telegram. “Dozens of launchers and buildings where “weapons were stored” are among the targets, he added. And the IDF added that Israel “will continue to attack with force, to damage and degrade Hezbollah's military capabilities and infrastructure in Lebanon.”

08:13 – The PFLP says it has been hit by Israeli strikes

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), a secular left-wing Palestinian organization designated as terrorist by Israel and the European Union, announced the death of three of its members in the Israeli strike on Beirut. Several videos relayed by local media show the building targeted by the shooting.

Israeli strikes in Lebanon have left casualties among the pro-Iranian Hezbollah movement, but an Iranian organization has also lost a leader in the strikes as the deputy for operations of Revolutionary Guards chief Abbas Nilforoushan died Friday in the strike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon. Tehran vows retaliation: “This horrible crime of the aggressor Zionist regime will not go unanswered, and the diplomatic apparatus will also use all its capabilities (…) to pursue the criminals and their supporters. Iranian Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif, for his part, said that Tehran's response to Israel “will take place at the appropriate time”. 

08:03 – Hamas leader in Lebanon killed in Israeli strikes

Hamas, a Palestinian Islamist movement, has announced that its leader in Lebanon, Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin, was killed along with members of his family in a strike that hit a Palestinian refugee camp in the south of the country on Sunday night. Monday, according to the Reuters news agency.

Israel continued to carry out airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon on Monday, September 30, and for the first time since the October 7, 2023 attack, the shots were fired on the country's capital, Beirut. In recent days, the strikes have been getting closer to the city, targeting its southern suburbs, but it was the city center that was hit at dawn on Monday. A Lebanese source said a drone strike targeted a Beirut apartment belonging to Jamaa Islamiya, a Lebanese Sunni Islamist group that supports Hezbollah in its operations in northern Israel.